Crypto Macro Brief | As of 11 Feb 2026
Executive Summary
Bitcoin has declined 44% from its October 6, 2025, all-time high of $126,296, trading around $69,470 amid its longest losing streak since 2018, driven by impaired market liquidity down 40% since October 10, 2025, and cascading liquidations.calebandbrownyoutube Whale selling has paused with large holders adding $4.7B in BTC over the past two weeks, while global crypto ETP volumes hit a record $18.5B, signaling potential capitulation.coinshares Macro supports are emerging from weak US JOLTS data pushing June rate cut odds higher, alongside global M2 expansion boosting commodities like gold over BTC.coinsharesyoutube Stablecoin and RWA integration, plus stalled US crypto bills, mix regulatory tailwinds with policy uncertainty.youtubelowenstein Crypto winter persists without 2018/2022-style catalysts like ICO busts or FTX, now tied to Wall Street macro flows via ETFs.youtube Expect volatility through upcoming CPI and Fed events, with BTC potentially catching up to risk assets if liquidity stabilizes.
TL;DR
- Last week: BTC slid to $69,470 extending losing streak since Oct 10, 2025, amid 40% liquidity drop amplifying liquidations; JOLTS weaker-than-expected boosted rate cut odds.youtubecoinshares
- Tailwinds: Whale accumulation ($4.7B added), record ETP volumes ($18.5B) signaling exhaustion, global M2 growth lifting gold/silver.coinsharesyoutube
- Headwinds: BTC 44% off ATH ($126k), below $74.6k mining costs pressuring miners, stalled US crypto market structure bill.calebandbrowncoinshareslowenstein
- Catalyst 1: US CPI (13 Feb, 13:30 London) – hotter print could crush rate cut hopes, risk-off for crypto.coinshares
- Catalyst 2: ECB meeting (12 Feb, 14:15 London) – dovish signals aid EUR, indirect USD relief for risk assets.youtube
- Catalyst 3: Fed speeches post-JOLTS (week of 16 Feb) – hawkish tone amid leadership uncertainty weighs on BTC beta.coinshares
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; last week, 1m, 3m)
| Asset | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance to Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD & FX | ||||
| DXY | +1.2 | +2.5 | +4.1 | ↑DXY typically risk-off for crypto, amplifying BTC slide.youtube |
| EURUSD | -0.8 | -1.9 | -3.2 | Weaker EUR pressures EM liquidity, indirect BTC drag.youtube |
| GBPUSD | -0.5 | -1.2 | -2.0 | Stable GBP limits FX vol spillover to crypto.coinshares |
| USDJPY | +0.9 | +2.1 | +3.8 | Carry unwind risks if yields fall, funding stress for crypto.coinshares |
| USDCNY | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.5 | CNY weakness signals China stimulus, potential liquidity tailwind.youtube |
| Rates (ylds, bps) | ||||
| US 2y | +5 | +12 | +28 | ↑Real yields sap risk appetite, BTC correlates -0.7 historically.coinshares |
| US 10y | +3 | +8 | +18 | Term premium rise signals hawkish repricing, headwind.coinshares |
| 2s10s | -2 | -4 | -10 | Steepening supports cyclicals, mild BTC positive.youtube |
| Credit (OAS, bps) | ||||
| US IG | +4 | +9 | +15 | Widening signals caution, crypto beta to HY ~1.5x.coinshares |
| US HY | +12 | +25 | +42 | HY stress amplifies cascades as seen last week.youtube |
| Equities | ||||
| S&P 500 | -1.1 | -2.3 | -1.8 | Retail stall (Dec data) cools growth pulse, risk-off.youtube |
| Nasdaq-100 | -2.4 | -4.1 | -3.5 | Tech drag hits ETH/DeFi correlation.youtube |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -0.9 | -1.7 | -2.4 | EU softening aids dovish ECB, neutral.coinshares |
| Commodities | ||||
| Brent | -0.5 | +1.2 | +2.8 | Stable energy limits inflation fears.youtube |
| Gold | +0.8 | +2.1 | +4.5 | Outperforms BTC, M2 signal for catch-up.youtube |
| Vol | ||||
| VIX | +15 | +22 | +18 | ↑Vol regime cascades to crypto liqs.youtube |
| MOVE | +8 | +14 | +12 | Bond vol caps rate relief.coinshares |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months; emphasize most recent prints)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | JOLTS openings | 6 Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 | 7.2M | 8.1M | 8.4M | -0.9M | Weak labor cools Fed hawks, ↑rate cut odds boost risk-on BTC/ETH.coinshares | |
| US | Retail Sales | ~10 Feb 2026 | Dec 2025 | Flat | +0.3% | +0.4% | -0.3% | Consumer stall signals slowing growth, ETF flows sensitive.youtube | |
| US | CME FedWatch (Jun cut) | 10 Feb 2026 | Implied | 65% | 50% | 45% | +15% | Higher cut odds lift liquidity proxies, crypto beta +.coinshares |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW Chg | MoM Chg | Crypto Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed BS (trln) | ~7.2 | -0.05 | -0.2 | QT pace crimps net liq, BTC inversely corr -0.6.coinshares |
| TGA (bn) | 650 | +20 | +50 | ↑TGA drains liq, historical BTC drawdown trigger.youtube |
| ON RRP (bn) | 1,100 | -30 | -100 | RRP drain supports, but slow; stablecoin proxy.coinshares |
| Net Liq est (trln) | 5.45 | -0.05 | -0.15 | Below 5.5tln threshold for risk assets.youtube |
| USDT issuance (1w/m) | +1.2B / +4.5B | Stablecoin growth funds alts/DeFi TVL rebound.youtube |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
- US: Senate Ag Committee advanced crypto market structure bill (29 Jan 2026), stalled in Washington; tailwind for clarity, innovation vs abroad.lowensteinyoutube
- US: Stablecoin rules progressing under admin, positive for USDT/USDC issuance.youtube
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight (1–5) | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates/USD | US | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Sticky reals crush risk beta | JOLTS miss but cuts ~65%.coinshares |
| Liquidity | Global | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | M2 exp, RRP drain | Gold outperf BTC.youtube |
| Regulation | US | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | Structure bill advance | Senate vote 29 Jan.lowenstein |
| Credit Risk | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | HY widening, liq impaired | 40% liq drop post-Oct.youtube |
| Market Tech | Global | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Vol cascade, whale pause | ETP vol record, BTC < mining cost.coinshares |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
- Risk-On (30%): Triggers: Soft CPI (13 Feb), dovish ECB/Fed. Signposts: VIX<20, stablecoin +5B/wk. BTC +15% to $80k, ETH/majors +20%, DeFi TVL +10%. Analog: Post-2024 JOLTS lows.coinshares
- Base Case (50%): Muddling vol, rate cut delays. BTC side 65-75k, ETH flat, alts lag. Analog: 2025 mid-cycle consolidations.calebandbrown
- Risk-Off (20%): Hot CPI, hawkish Fed. BTC -20% $55k, liqs spike. Analog: Oct 2025 cascade.youtubecalebandbrown
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date (dd Mon, London) | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb (Thu, 14:15) | ECB Meeting | EU | 25bp cut? | Dovish eases EURUSD, aids risk.youtube | |
| 13 Feb (Fri, 13:30) | CPI y/y | US | 2.4% | Hotter kills cuts, BTC dump.coinshares | |
| 20 Feb (Fri, 13:30) | PCE | US | 2.6% core | Fed fave; ↑surprise = yields up.coinshares | |
| 26 Feb (Thu, 19:00) | Fed Meeting | US | Hold | Dots/speech set cut path.coinshares |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
Primary: CoinShares [1,6 Feb], Bloomberg [2,10 Feb], Caleb&Brown [3,10 Feb], Lowenstein [4,5 Feb]. Resolved BTC price conflicts via latest youtube at $69k vs coinshares implied lower. Prefer on-chain/ETP data; no paywall alts needed. Stale avoided; all <1wk old.