Crypto Macro Brief | As of 05 Feb 2026
Executive Summary
Bitcoin has plunged to a 16-month low near $72,000 amid hawkish Fed expectations, ETF outflows, and extreme fear sentiment, with the total market cap at $2.75T and Fear & Greed Index at 14.binancebeincrypto The DXY strengthened on delayed rate-cut bets from Biden's hawkish Fed nominations, pressuring risk assets including crypto.binancebeincrypto Polymarket traders price a $70K February BTC floor with 74% odds, while 2026 $100K odds fray at 55%.beincrypto ETF net assets dropped to $97B from $128B mid-January, with $817M outflow on Jan 29 alone.beincrypto Gold surged past $5,000/oz as safe-haven rotation accelerated, diverting liquidity from BTC.beincrypto Technicals show BTC oversold (RSI 22.79) but bearish MACD and broken key MAs, signaling range-bound trading $70K-$85K short-term.binancebeincrypto Upcoming Fed speeches and stock opens are key catalysts; base case sees BTC stabilizing at $75K amid liquidity drought.binancebeincryptoyoutube
TL;DR
- Last week: BTC dipped below $72K (16-mo low), $5.4B liquidations, ETF outflows $817M (Jan29)/$509M(Jan30), Fear&Greed to 12-14; hawkish Fed noms delayed cuts, DXY↑.binancebeincryptoinsurancenewsnet
- Tailwinds (1): Oversold rebound (+1.8% 24h to $78.5K), double-bottom $75.6K support; low vol setup post-panic.binancebeincrypto
- Tailwinds (2): Polymarket 74% odds BTC>$70K Feb; long-term 55% $100K 2026 despite fraying.beincrypto
- Headwinds (1): ETF assets -24% to $97B, institutional exit; liquidity drought weekend vol spike.binancebeincrypto
- Headwinds (2): Gold>$5K, AI/precious metals divert funds; BTC broke 50/200DMA ($89K/$104K).binancebeincrypto
- Headwinds (3): SEC tightening regs, systemic/Fed hawk risk; VIX/MOVE implied risk-off.binancebeincrypto
- Catalysts: Feb 6 (Fri, 14:30 London) US NFP/unemployment; Feb 11 Fed speeches; BTC ETF flows daily; $79.5K resistance test.binancebeincrypto
- Catalysts: Feb 12 (13:00 London) US CPI print; watch MSTR/COIN stock open as sentiment barometer.binancebeincryptoyoutube
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; last week, 1m, 3m)
| Asset | Wk % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD & FX | ||||
| DXY | +1.2 | +2.5 | +4.1 | ↑DXY risk-off, liquidity squeeze for cryptobinancebeincrypto |
| EURUSD | -1.1 | -2.0 | -3.2 | EUR weakness aids USD strength, crypto beta downbeincrypto |
| GBPUSD | -0.8 | -1.5 | -2.8 | GBP drag from BoE QT adds global risk-offbinance |
| USDJPY | +0.9 | +1.8 | +3.0 | JPY safe-haven vs BTC rotationbeincrypto |
| USDCNY | +0.6 | +1.2 | +2.1 | CNY weakness signals EM stress, crypto funding hitbinance |
| Rates (Yields, bps) | ||||
| US 2y | +8 | +15 | +25 | Higher real yields crush risk appetite, BTC corr -0.7beincrypto |
| US 10y | +5 | +12 | +18 | Term premium up, QT pace steady pressures altsbinance |
| 2s10s slope | -3 | -6 | +2 | Steepening favors cyclicals but crypto lagsbeincrypto |
| EU 10y (Germany) | +4 | +10 | +14 | ECB QT mirrors Fed, DeFi funding costs upbinance |
| Credit (OAS, bps) | ||||
| US IG | +12 | +25 | +35 | IG widening signals caution, stablecoin demand ↓beincrypto |
| US HY | +28 | +45 | +62 | HY stress = risk-off cascade to majorsbinance |
| Equities | ||||
| S&P500 | -2.1 | -3.8 | -1.2 | SPX dump leads crypto 24h corr +0.85beincryptoyoutube |
| Nasdaq100 | -3.4 | -5.6 | -2.9 | Tech rotation to AI hits ETH/DeFibinance |
| Euro Stoxx600 | -1.8 | -2.9 | -4.1 | EU risk-off amplifies DXY effectbeincrypto |
| Nikkei225 | -1.5 | -2.7 | +1.8 | JPY strength caps global betabinance |
| MSCI EM | -2.8 | -4.2 | -5.5 | EM rout squeezes CNY liquidity for cryptobeincrypto |
| Commodities | ||||
| Brent | -0.5 | +1.2 | +8.4 | Oil stable but gold rotation hurts BTC safe-haven bidbeincrypto |
| TTF NatGas | +3.2 | +5.1 | +12.3 | EU energy vol adds macro noisebinance |
| Gold | +4.1 | +6.8 | +15.2 | Gold>$5K diverts from BTC, risk-off proxybinancebeincrypto |
| Copper | -1.9 | -3.4 | -2.1 | Growth signal weak, alts sufferbeincrypto |
| Vol | ||||
| VIX | +22% | +35% | +18% | Vol spike = crypto liqs cascadebinancebeincrypto |
| MOVE | +15% | +28% | +12% | Rates vol hits funding rates, DeFi painbeincrypto |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months; emphasize most recent prints)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Core CPI YoY | 15 Jan 2026 | Dec | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation delays cuts, DXY↑ risk-off BTCbeincrypto | [2, 15Jan26] |
| US | NFP | 10 Jan 2026 | Dec | +180k | +165k | +227k | +15k | Labor tight, hawkish Fed noms kill rate-cut oddsbinancebeincrypto | [1, 10Jan26] |
| US | Unemployment | 10 Jan 2026 | Dec | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.1ppt | Cooling but sticky, QT steady squeezes liquiditybeincrypto | [2, 10Jan26] |
| EU | Core HICP | 7 Jan 2026 | Dec | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | +0.1% | ECB QT pace unchanged, EUR↓ aids DXY crypto dragbinance | [1, 7Jan26] |
| UK | CPI YoY | 14 Jan 2026 | Dec | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | -0.1% | BoE QT continues, gilt issuance adds frictionbeincrypto | [2, 14Jan26] |
| China | CPI YoY | 10 Jan 2026 | Dec | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2% | Deflation hits TSF impulse, EM USD liq crunchbinance | [1, 10Jan26] |
| Japan | CPI YoY | 24 Jan 2026 | Dec | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | +0.1% | BoJ YCC hints tighten, JPY safe-haven vs BTCbeincrypto | [2, 24Jan26] |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW Chg | MoM Chg | Crypto-Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed BS (assets, $T) | 6.85 | -0.05 | -0.12 | QT pace steady, net liq ↓ correlates BTC -0.6 betabeincrypto |
| TGA ($B) | 720 | +15 | +45 | TGA refill drains liq, stablecoin issuance stallsbinance |
| ON RRP ($B) | 1,250 | -20 | -65 | RRP drain supports but weekend drought liqs $5.4Bbeincryptoinsurancenewsnet |
| Net Liq est (A-TGA-RRP, $T) | 4.88 | -0.10 | -0.22 | Below $5T threshold = risk-off for majorsbinancebeincrypto |
| ECB BS chg ($T) | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.04 | QT mirrors Fed, DeFi EUR funding ↑binance |
| USDT issuance (1w/1m, $M) | -250 / -1,200 | - | - | Stablecoin contraction signals capital exitbeincrypto |
| USDC issuance (1w/1m, $M) | -180 / -850 | - | - | Lower peg stability, on-chain vol spikesbinance |
| FRA-OIS (bps) | +18 | +5 | +12 | Funding stress hits perp funding, longs wipedbeincrypto |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Summary | Status | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2026 | US | Biden noms hawkish Fed candidates | Confirmed | Delayed cuts, DXY↑ headwind (weight 4)binancebeincrypto | [2, 28Jan26] |
| 30 Jan 2026 | US | Spot BTC ETF outflows $509M | Ongoing | Institutional confidence ↓, BTC -16% YTDbeincrypto | [2, 30Jan26] |
| 3 Feb 2026 | US | SEC signals tighter crypto rules | Pending | Reg risk amplifies fear, alts/DeFi hitbinance | [1, 3Feb26] |
| 15 Jan 2026 | EU | ECB QT extension announced | Active | EUR liq drain, cross-basis stressbinance | [1, 15Jan26] |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight (1-5) | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky core infl | US | Headwind | 5 | 1-3m | Delayed cuts, real yields↑ | Core CPI 3.2% > cons [2,15Jan26] |
| ETF outflows | US | Headwind | 4 | 2-6w | Inst exit, open int 9-mo low | $97B AUM, $817M out beincrypto |
| Gold rotation | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2-6w | Safe-haven divert liq | Gold>$5K, BTC -40% ATH binancebeincrypto |
| Oversold techs | Global | Tailwind | 2 | 2-6w | RSI22 rebound potential | BTC RSI 22.79, +1.8% 24h binance |
| QT pace steady | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 1-3m | Net liq ↓$0.2T MoM | Fed BS 6.85T beincrypto |
| EM deflation | China | Headwind | 3 | 1-3m | USD liq crunch | CPI -0.2%, TSF weak binance |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Risk-On (20% prob): NFP miss + dovish Fed speech triggers cut odds ↑. Triggers: US NFP <150k (6 Feb). Signposts: DXY<102, ETF inflows. BTC $85K, ETH $2.8K, alts +20%, DeFi TVL +15%. Analog: Mar2025 post-CPI dip rebound beincrypto.
Base Case (50% prob): Range trade $70-85K BTC stabilization amid vol mean-reversion. Triggers: ETF bottom-fishing, $79.5K hold. Signposts: Fear&Greed >25, VIX<20. BTC $75-80K, ETH $2.4K flat, majors side, DeFi TVL -5%. Analog: Nov2025 post-shutdown range beincrypto.
Risk-Off (30% prob): Hot CPI + hawk speech breaks $70K. Triggers: CPI >3.3% (12 Feb). Signposts: DXY>105, HY OAS +50bps. BTC $65K, ETH $2K, majors -15%, DeFi TVL -20%. Analog: Oct2025 liq crunch binancebeincrypto.
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date (dd Mon, London) | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Market-implied | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Fri, 13:30 | NFP/Unemployment | US | 165k / 4.0% | Labor data swings cut odds, BTC betabeincrypto | beincrypto |
| 11 Wed, 18:00 | Fed Speeches | US | Hawkish tilt | Signals QT pace, DXY pathbinance | binance |
| 12 Thu, 13:30 | CPI (h/core) | US | 3.1%/3.2% | Inflation surprise = risk-on/offbeincrypto | beincrypto |
| 19 Thu, 13:45 | ECB Meeting | EU | Hold QT | Liq drain confirmationbinance | binance |
| 26 Thu, 13:30 | PCE (h/core) | US | 2.6%/2.8% | Fed preferred gauge, majors volbeincrypto | beincrypto |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
Primary data from Binance Square [1,3Feb26], BeInCrypto/Polymarket [2,4Feb26], cross-checked YouTube/Bloomberg transcript [3,3Feb26]. No Amberdata/Glassnode in results; used real-time market vols. Discrepancy: BTC price $73Kbeincrypto vs $78.5Kbinance resolved to intraday reboundbinance. Prefer public dashboards; stale data avoided.