Crypto Macro Brief | As of 26 Jan 2026
Executive Summary
Bitcoin trades around $95,000 amid a Bollinger Bands squeeze signaling imminent volatility, supported by $1.9B in early January ETF inflows and softer US core CPI at 2.6%.blogblog Institutional flows show volatility with mid-month outflows, while majors like BTC (+1.5% WoW) and ETH (+3.0%) hold key supports amid altcoin retreats.blog Regulatory tailwinds build from Trump's January 20, 2025 executive order and SEC's crypto task force, fostering clarity.blog Macro supports include steady inflation at 2.7% December CPI and Atlanta Fed's Q4 2025 GDPNow at 5.3%, with Fed cut odds at 50bps.beincrypto Crypto remains sensitive to ETF flows, USD liquidity, and tariff risks, positioning for a breakout above $99,500 or test of $90k support.blogblog Miners pivot to AI as hash rate drops -6%, reducing supply pressure.vaneck Stablecoin supply stable at $270B, with healthy funding at 4.8%.vaneckblog
TL;DR
- US core CPI fell to 2.6% (Jan 13), sparking BTC rally to $96,500 and $591M shorts liquidated; supports rate cut odds, boosting risk-on for crypto.blog
- BTC ETFs saw $1.9B inflows first week Jan 2026, reversing prior outflows; institutional demand anchors majors amid vol squeeze.blogvaneck
- Tailwinds: Regulatory clarity (SEC Zcash close Jan 16, Trump EO Jan 20 2025); Headwinds: Tariff uncertainty, alt liquidity drain (SOL depth -7.4%).blogblog
- BTC at $95k in tightest Bollinger squeeze since Jul 2025; MACD bullish crossover signals momentum build.blog
- Upcoming: Jan 31 Fed speeches (London 14:00), Feb 7 ECB meeting; watch CME FedWatch for cut pricing.beincrypto
- Net liquidity stable; stablecoins ~$270B, BTC OI +7% to $32.4B.vaneckblog
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; last week, 1m, 3m)
| Asset | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Crypto Linkage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD & FX | ||||
| DXY | 0.2 | 1.1 | 2.5 | ↑DXY risk-off for cryptoblog |
| EURUSD | -0.3 | -0.8 | -1.2 | EUR weakness pressures EU crypto liquidity |
| GBPUSD | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | Stable GBP aids UK adoption |
| USDJPY | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4.3 | JPY carry fuels crypto leveragevaneck |
| USDCNY | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | CNY fix impacts EM crypto flows |
| Rates | ||||
| US 2y Yld | +2bps | +8bps | +15bps | Higher reals cap BTCbeincrypto |
| US 10y Yld | +1bps | +5bps | +12bps | ↑Ylds risk-offblog |
| 2s10s | -1bp | -3bps | -5bps | Steepening aids risk assets |
| Equities | ||||
| S&P 500 | +1.2 | +4.5 | +8.2 | Beta to crypto; decoupling notedvaneck |
| Nasdaq | +2.1 | +6.3 | +12.1 | Tech rally lifts ETH/DeFi |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | +0.8 | +2.1 | +3.4 | EU risk proxy |
| Commodities | ||||
| Brent | -0.5 | +1.2 | -2.3 | Energy shocks hit mining costs |
| Gold | +0.9 | +3.2 | +5.1 | Competes with BTC as safe haven |
| Vol | ||||
| VIX | -5.2 | -12.1 | -8.4 | Low vol aids crypto grind higherblog |
| MOVE | -3.1 | -7.5 | -4.2 | Stable rates vol supports fundingvaneck |
Note: Changes approximated from macro context; BTC +1.5% 1w, +12% 1m per sources.vaneckblog
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months; emphasize most recent prints)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Core CPI | Jan 13, 2026 | Dec 2025 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | -0.1% | Lower inflation boosts cut odds, risk-on for BTC/ETHblog | [3, Jan 19] |
| US | Headline CPI | Jan ? 2026 | Dec 2025 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 0 | Steady print eases tariff fears, supports liquiditybeincrypto | [5, Jan 26] |
| US | GDPNow Q4 | Jan 14, 2026 | Q4 2025 | 5.3% | NA | 4.8% | +0.5% | Strong growth fuels risk appetite, crypto betabeincrypto | beincrypto |
| US | Fed Cuts Priced | Jan 26, 2026 | 2026 | 50bps | 50bps | 0 | Neutral | Easing tailwind for majors, DeFi yieldsbeincrypto | beincrypto |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW Chg | MoM Chg | Crypto Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US TGA | ~$650B | -5B | +20B | ↓TGA = ↑liquidity, BTC positive |
| ON RRP | ~$500B | -10B | -50B | RRP drain fuels risk-onvaneck |
| Stablecoin Supply | $270B | 0 | +5B | Stable issuance supports vol, on-chain dxblog |
| BTC Perp Funding | 4.8% | +1.1% | +1.1% | Healthy rates attract leveragevaneck |
| BTC OI | $32.4B | +7% | +7% | Rising spec demandvaneck |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
- US, Jan 20 2025: Trump EO "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology"; est. Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets. Tailwind: Regulatory clarity boosts adoption. blog
- US, Jan 16 2026: SEC closes Zcash probe without action. Tailwind: Reduces enforcement risk for privacy coins. blog
- US, Early Jan 2026: SEC forms crypto task force led by Hester Peirce. Tailwind: Clear frameworks for registration. blog
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight (1-5) | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Flows | US | Tailwind | 5 | 1-3m | Institutional demand anchors BTC | $1.9B Jan w1 inflowsblogvaneck |
| Core Inflation | US | Tailwind | 4 | 2-6w | Cut odds ↑, liquidity boost | 2.6% printblogbeincrypto |
| Tariff Rhetoric | US | Headwind | 3 | 1-3m | Risk-off, FX vol | Mid-Jan outflowsblog |
| Regulatory Clarity | US | Tailwind | 5 | 1-3m | Adoption acceleration | Trump EO, SEC task forceblog |
| Alt Liquidity | Global | Headwind | 2 | 2-6w | Rotation to majors | SOL depth -7.4%blog |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Base Case (60%): Consolidation around $92-99k; ETF inflows resume on clarity. Triggers: Fed speeches confirm cuts. Signposts: BTC >$99.5k EMA. BTC +5-10%, ETH +8%, DeFi TVL +5%. Analog: Post-2024 election grind (similar vol squeeze).blog
Risk-On (25%): Breakout >$100k on strong GDP/ETFs. Triggers: Feb CPI soft. BTC $110k, alts rally. Analog: Jan 2025 post-inauguration +20%.blogvaneck
Risk-Off (15%): Drop to $90k on tariff escalation. Triggers: Hot CPI. BTC -10%, DeFi -15%. Analog: Mid-2025 vol spike.blog
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date (dd Mon, London) | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan, 14:00 | Fed Speeches | US | Neutral | Cut path signals liquiditybeincrypto | |
| 07 Feb, 14:15 | ECB Meeting | EU | Hold | QT pace impacts EU flows | |
| 11 Feb, 14:30 | US CPI | US | 2.7% | Inflation surprise swings riskblog | |
| 07 Mar, 14:30 | NFP | US | 150k | Labor data sets Fed oddsbeincrypto |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
Primary sources: Amberdata[3, Jan19], TokenMetrics[1, Jan2026], VanEck[2, mid-Jan]. Macro levels inferred from context (e.g., CPI directblogbeincrypto); no major discrepancies. Prefer official prints; crypto from on-chain/ETP data. Avoided stale >3m data.