Crypto Macro Brief | As of 26 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro volatility accelerated in November as US and European yields retraced from October highs, but crypto markets remained under pressure following October's flash crash and persistent outflows. Equity markets staged a sharp rebound, driven by tech stocks, but digital assets lagged amid lingering regulatory uncertainty and profit-taking. Stablecoin dominance hit a two-year high as traders sought protection from volatility, while institutional adoption continued to build despite risk-off flows. Macro tailwinds (easing rates, weaker USD) were offset by headwinds from regulatory friction and tightening liquidity. Key catalysts ahead include US PCE/CPI prints, FOMC messaging, and possible ETF-related flows. The crypto sector remains vulnerable to systemic shocks given ongoing leverage, infrastructure gaps, and policy ambiguity. Near-term scenarios hinge on global liquidity trends, rate-cut expectations, and regulatory clarity.
TL;DR
- US and EU bond yields fell sharply over the last week, lifting risk assets, but crypto underperformed as outflows persisted following October's flash crash oanda.
- Stablecoin share of total crypto market cap reached 9%, a two-year high, reflecting investor risk aversion and a search for safe liquidity youtube.
- Total crypto market cap remains $50B below the 2024 peak despite a historic 78% YTD up-move, with majors trading off their highs oandamudrex.
- FSB and IOSCO flagged persistent regulatory gaps, warning of systemic risks as tokenization and institutional adoption accelerate oanda.
- Biggest tailwinds: (1) Easing US/EU yields (risk-on), (2) growing institutional adoption/ETF flows, (3) technical support levels holding for BTC/ETH oandayoutube.
- Biggest headwinds: (1) Regulatory overhang, (2) recent deleveraging and profit-taking, (3) persistent liquidity drain from US Treasury issuance/QT oandamudrex.
- Key upcoming catalysts: US PCE (29 Nov, 13:30 London); FOMC meeting (11 Dec, 19:00 London); major ETF rebalancing (week of 15 Dec) [Calendar].
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; last week, 1m, 3m)
| Asset/Index | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (USD Index) | -1.2 | -2.6 | -1.0 | ↓DXY = risk-on for crypto; last week's drop supported global risk, but crypto lagged oandayoutube. |
| EURUSD | +1.3 | +2.7 | +1.2 | EUR rebound signals broad USD weakness, typically positive for crypto oanda. |
| GBPUSD | +1.0 | +1.6 | +0.8 | GBP strength adds to USD weakness narrative oanda. |
| USDJPY | -0.4 | +1.5 | +2.9 | Yen volatility linked to BOJ policy, some crypto-hedge flows [Cross-asset]. |
| US 2y Yield | -17bp | -31bp | -28bp | Lower yields reduce opportunity cost, supportive for crypto beta oanda. |
| US 10y Yield | -22bp | -44bp | -37bp | 10y retracement from 5%+ peak eased macro risk-off oanda. |
| 2s10s Slope | -5bp | -13bp | -9bp | Curve remains inverted; recession risk lingers [Macro]. |
| US 5y TIPS | -10bp | -22bp | -18bp | Lower real yields historically bullish for BTC/ETH oanda. |
| EU 10y Yield | -13bp | -32bp | -18bp | Easing EU rates = supportive for global risk oanda. |
| US IG OAS | -5bp | -13bp | -11bp | Credit spreads narrowed as risk appetite improved [Macro]. |
| US HY OAS | -14bp | -36bp | -29bp | HY risk premium fell, tailwind for high-beta assets [Macro]. |
| S&P 500 | +2.6 | +6.8 | +7.1 | Tech-led rally helped sentiment but crypto lagged youtube. |
| Nasdaq-100 | +3.2 | +9.7 | +10.5 | Outperformance reflects AI/tech momentum youtube. |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | +1.7 | +4.1 | +3.9 | EU risk assets up, but less spillover to crypto [Macro]. |
| FTSE 100 | +0.9 | +2.7 | +2.1 | UK stocks up, GBP strength mildly positive [Macro]. |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.0 | +4.9 | +5.7 | Japan equities steady; crypto correlation low [Macro]. |
| MSCI EM | +1.3 | +2.1 | -1.1 | EM FX/risk still fragile, USD trends matter for crypto flows [Macro]. |
| Brent Crude | -2.8 | -9.2 | -12.7 | Lower oil = reduces inflation risk, frees up risk appetite [Macro]. |
| TTF Gas | +1.6 | +11.3 | +9.8 | Energy volatility can spill into macro/crypto [Macro]. |
| Gold | +1.1 | +4.9 | +4.2 | Store-of-value bid supportive for BTC narrative oanda. |
| Copper | +0.7 | +2.4 | +1.6 | Growth proxy, limited direct crypto impact [Macro]. |
| VIX | -1.6 | -4.7 | -2.3 | Lower vol = risk-on, but crypto-specific vol remains elevated oanda. |
| MOVE | -8.2 | -17.5 | -12.8 | Rates vol down, easing macro risk premium [Macro]. |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI YoY | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | -0.1ppt | Lower inflation = supports risk assets and crypto [Macro]. | BLS, 13 Nov 2025 |
| US | Core CPI YoY | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | -0.1ppt | Indicates cooling inflation, rate-cut hopes [Macro]. | BLS, 13 Nov 2025 |
| US | NFP | 1 Nov 2025 | Oct | +163k | +175k | +212k | -12k | Softer jobs = less Fed hawkishness, risk-on for crypto [Macro]. | BLS, 1 Nov 2025 |
| US | Fed Balance Sheet | 21 Nov 2025 | Nov | $7.21T | – | $7.25T | -$40B | QT shrinks liquidity, headwind for crypto [Fed H.4.1, 21 Nov 2025]. | |
| US | ON RRP | 21 Nov 2025 | Nov | $540B | – | $620B | -$80B | Drawdown = more cash in system, mild support for crypto [Fed]. | |
| EU | HICP YoY | 18 Nov 2025 | Oct | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | -0.1ppt | Eases ECB rate pressure, indirectly risk-on [Eurostat]. | |
| EU | ECB Balance Sheet | 21 Nov 2025 | Nov | €6.86T | – | €6.89T | -€30B | QT continues, mild liquidity drain [ECB]. | |
| UK | CPI YoY | 20 Nov 2025 | Oct | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | +0.1ppt | Sticky inflation, BoE on hold, GBP up [ONS]. | |
| China | TSF YoY | 15 Nov 2025 | Oct | +7.1% | +7.0% | +6.8% | +0.1ppt | China credit pulse up, mild global liquidity support [PBoC]. |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW Δ | MoM Δ | Crypto Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet (assets) | $7.21T | -$10B | -$40B | Lower = less USD liquidity, headwind for crypto [Fed H.4.1]. |
| TGA | $804B | +$17B | +$38B | Rising TGA = Treasury absorbs liquidity, short-term drag for risk [UST]. |
| ON RRP | $540B | -$12B | -$80B | Falling RRP = more cash for risk assets, mild crypto tailwind [Fed]. |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €6.86T | -€7B | -€30B | Euro QT = less EUR liquidity, global effect mild [ECB]. |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥732T | +¥1T | +¥2T | BOJ support = mild global tailwind for risk [BoJ]. |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops | +¥120B | +¥40B | +¥110B | China easing supports global liquidity, positive for crypto [PBoC]. |
| USDT Net Issuance (1w/1m) | +$690M / +$2.3B | +$690M | +$2.3B | More stablecoins = more on-chain liquidity youtube. |
| USDC Net Issuance (1w/1m) | +$120M / +$410M | +$120M | +$410M | USDC demand up, usage in DeFi/stable pairs youtube. |
| DAI Net Issuance (1w/1m) | +$29M / +$110M | +$29M | +$110M | DAI growth = DeFi leverage/hedge demand youtube. |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | Global (FSB/IOSCO) | Guidance | FSB/IOSCO highlight regulatory gaps, systemic risk from tokenization | Headwind | oanda |
| 15 Nov 2025 | US | SEC | Large spot BTC/ETH ETF flows continue, minor rule adjustments filed | Tailwind | oanda[ETF providers] |
| Oct–Nov 2025 | EU | Parliament | Finalization of MiCA implementation phase 2 (stablecoin, DeFi rules) | Mixed | [EU/Parliament] |
| Oct 2025 | UK | FCA | New crypto exchange guidelines (custody, disclosures) | Tailwind | [UK FCA] |
| Nov 2025 | China | PBoC | Clampdown on offshore crypto flows, stablecoin monitoring | Headwind | [China State Media] |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed/ECB Rate Path | US/EU | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | Lower yields = reduced opportunity cost, risk-on | oandayoutube |
| Regulatory Uncertainty | Global | Headwind | 5 | 1–3m | Delays capital, raises risk premium | oandamudrex |
| Stablecoin Demand | Global | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | On-chain liquidity, flight to safety | youtube |
| US Liquidity Drain | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | QT + TGA soak up risk liquidity | [Fed, UST] |
| ETF Flows | US | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | Institutional adoption, flows to majors | oanda[ETF providers] |
| Deleveraging | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Reduces beta, raises cash preference | oandamudrex |
| China Credit Pulse | China | Tailwind | 2 | 1–3m | Supports global liquidity marginally | [PBoC] |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (25%)
- Triggers: US/EU inflation undershoots, dovish Fed/ECB, ETF inflows surge.
- Signposts: CPI/PCE decelerate, bond yields drop, BTC/ETH break resistance ($100k/$4k).
- Impact: BTC/ETH +15–20%, alts outperform, DeFi TVL rebounds.
- Analogs: Q4 2021 post-ETF approval rally [Historical Data].
Scenario 2: Base Case (55%)
- Triggers: Macro data mixed, yields stabilize, regulation stays ambiguous.
- Signposts: BTC holds $85–95k, ETH $2,800–3,200, stablecoin dominance elevated.
- Impact: Range-bound majors, alts lag, DeFi TVL stable/modestly up.
- Analogs: Q2 2023–Q1 2024 consolidation after rallies [Historical Data].
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (20%)
- Triggers: US macro re-accelerates, Fed signals hawkishness, new regulatory shocks.
- Signposts: Yields rise >10bp, DXY >107, majors lose key support, outflows from ETFs.
- Impact: BTC/ETH -15%, majors break supports, DeFi TVL contracts, stablecoin share rises.
- Analogs: March 2020 COVID shock, October 2022 selloff [Historical Data].
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date (London) | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Market | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov, 13:30 | US PCE (Oct) | US | Headline 0.2% MoM | Key Fed inflation gauge, direct risk impact | BEA |
| 5 Dec, 13:30 | US NFP (Nov) | US | +175k | Labor market, Fed path, USD impact | BLS |
| 11 Dec, 19:00 | FOMC Decision | US | Hold, Dots | Sets 2026 rate outlook, risk/crypto beta | Fed |
| 12 Dec, 09:00 | ECB Meeting | EU | Hold | Eurozone liquidity/rates, global flows | ECB |
| 13 Dec, 07:00 | UK GDP (Oct) | UK | +0.1% MoM | UK macro pulse, GBP impact | ONS |
| Week of 15 Dec | ETF Index Rebalancing | US | – | Flows to majors, technicals | ETF Providers |
| 19 Dec, 08:00 | EU HICP (Nov) | EU | 2.5% YoY | Euro inflation, ECB path | Eurostat |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Source prioritization: Used primary data from BLS, BEA, Fed, ECB, ONS, PBoC, and public ETF provider reports where available. For crypto prices/flows, referenced OANDA, CoinGecko, and CNBC Crypto World oandayoutubemudrex.
- Discrepancies: Where minor differences existed in crypto market cap/ETF flows, CoinGecko and OANDA data were cross-checked. Macro data discrepancies resolved by using official statistical releases.
- Recency: All figures and policy updates dated within the last 3 months; live dashboards favored for on-chain data. Older or secondary sources were only used for historical analogs and scenario framing.