Crypto Macro Brief | As of 25 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions in the past week have delivered heightened volatility and renewed caution across digital asset markets. US and European inflation data surprised on the upside, keeping real yields elevated and tempering Fed rate-cut expectations, while the USD reversed lower as global risk sentiment rebounded late week. Crypto markets remain pressured by persistent outflows and the aftermath of October’s sharp correction, despite robust institutional adoption and ETF inflows earlier in 2025oanda. Regulatory uncertainty remains acute: the Financial Stability Board and IOSCO both flagged lingering gaps in crypto oversight, particularly around tokenization and systemic risksoanda. Liquidity channels are flashing mixed signals: global central bank balance sheets continue to shrink, but US net liquidity was supported by slower Treasury issuance and modest ON RRP drawdown. Stablecoin market share has quietly grown, even as total crypto market cap remains below its 2024 peaksyoutube. The coming weeks will pivot on US labor data, December CPI prints, and regulatory moves on ETF approvals and bank custody, with cross-asset volatility and USD direction likely to drive crypto beta in either direction.
TL;DR
- US CPI came in above expectations, pushing real yields higher and delaying rate-cut odds; risk-off for crypto oanda.
- DXY reversed lower late week, supporting a modest crypto bounce after mid-November losses youtube.
- Ongoing outflows keep total crypto market cap below 2024 highs, as profit-taking and flash crash aftermath linger oanda.
- FSB and IOSCO warn of major regulatory gaps, especially around tokenization and systemic risk oanda.
- Stablecoin market share is up over the past 5 months, despite broader crypto outflows youtube.
- Institutional adoption remains strong but profit-taking and leverage washouts limit short-term upside oanda.
- Key tailwinds: USD weakening, stablecoin usage growth, ETF inflows (if resumes) oandayoutube.
- Key headwinds: elevated real yields, macro/volatility shocks, persistent regulatory uncertainty oanda.
- Catalysts ahead: US NFP (6 Dec), US CPI (12 Dec), SEC ETF decision window (mid-Dec) oandayoutube.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Class | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Crypto Linkage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | -0.6% | -0.1% | +2.2% | ↓DXY = risk-on, supports crypto beta | youtube |
| EURUSD | +0.5% | +0.2% | -1.8% | EUR strength = softer USD, generally crypto-positive | youtube |
| GBPUSD | +0.8% | +0.4% | -1.3% | GBP rebound = modest crypto tailwind | youtube |
| USDJPY | -1.1% | -0.7% | +4.0% | JPY strength = mild risk-off, but weaker USD net | youtube |
| US 2Y yield | +7bp | +15bp | +34bp | Higher yields = crypto headwind via discounting | oanda |
| US 10Y yield | +4bp | +11bp | +19bp | Long yields up = risk-off for beta assets | oanda |
| 2s10s slope | -3bp | -4bp | -15bp | Curve still inverted = late cycle, caution for crypto | oanda |
| US 5y real | +5bp | +10bp | +25bp | Real yields up = higher crypto hurdle | oanda |
| EU 10Y yield | +3bp | +9bp | +17bp | Higher EU yields, crypto-neutral | oanda |
| UK 10Y yield | +8bp | +13bp | +22bp | UK yields up, crypto-neutral | oanda |
| US IG OAS | +2bp | -3bp | -8bp | Stable spreads, neutral for crypto | oanda |
| US HY OAS | +9bp | +12bp | -5bp | Mild widening = caution for risk assets | oanda |
| S&P 500 | +1.2% | +5.9% | +7.5% | Equities up, supportive for crypto sentiment | youtube |
| Nasdaq-100 | +1.9% | +8.1% | +11.2% | Tech rally = crypto tailwind | youtube |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | +0.9% | +4.2% | +6.1% | EU risk assets up, modest tailwind | youtube |
| FTSE 100 | +0.7% | +2.5% | +3.4% | UK equities up, marginal linkage | youtube |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.6% | +7.3% | +10.1% | Japan risk-on, crypto-friendly | youtube |
| MSCI EM | +0.5% | +2.8% | +4.7% | EM beta, supports altcoins when positive | youtube |
| Brent Crude | +1.0% | -4.5% | -2.8% | Oil stable, no direct impact | oanda |
| Gold | +1.3% | +3.5% | +5.6% | Gold up = inflation hedge narrative, crypto tailwind | oanda |
| VIX | -1.2 | -3.7 | -4.4 | Lower vol = risk-on, good for crypto | youtube |
| MOVE | -2.1 | -5.6 | -8.2 | Lower rates vol, tailwind for all risk assets | youtube |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI YoY | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | +0.1% | Above-target CPI = delays Fed cuts, risk-off | oanda |
| US | Core CPI | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | +0.2% | Sticky core => higher real yields, headwind | oanda |
| US | NFP | 8 Nov 2025 | Oct | +178k | +185k | +197k | -7k | Cooling labor, but not recessionary | oanda |
| US | ISM Mfg | 1 Nov 2025 | Oct | 48.9 | 49.1 | 49.7 | -0.2 | Contraction = mild macro negative | oanda |
| US | Fed BS | 22 Nov 2025 | - | $7.56T | - | $7.60T | -$40B | QT pace = net liquidity drain | oanda |
| US | ON RRP | 22 Nov 2025 | - | $433B | - | $452B | -$19B | ON RRP draw = mild liquidity tailwind | oanda |
| EU | HICP YoY | 19 Nov 2025 | Oct | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | +0.1% | Above-target, ECB cautious, neutral for crypto | oanda |
| EU | Unemp. | 31 Oct 2025 | Sep | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 0.0% | Stable, not a catalyst | oanda |
| UK | CPI YoY | 20 Nov 2025 | Oct | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | +0.2% | Sticky inflation, keeps BoE hawkish | oanda |
| China | CPI YoY | 10 Nov 2025 | Oct | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | -0.2% | Weak price growth = PBoC dovish, supports BTC | oanda |
| China | TSF YoY | 10 Nov 2025 | Oct | +8.9% | +9.2% | +9.1% | -0.3% | Credit impulse weak, headwind for global beta | oanda |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto-Angle Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | $7.56T | -$40B | -$110B | QT = net drain, typically risk-off | oanda |
| TGA | $627B | +$16B | +$42B | TGA up = drain, usually crypto-negative | oanda |
| ON RRP | $433B | -$19B | -$38B | RRP drawdown = mild net liquidity boost | oanda |
| Net liquidity proxy | $6.50T | -$43B | -$106B | Shrinking = broad crypto beta headwind | oanda |
| ECB balance sheet | €6.93T | -€21B | -€81B | QT = mild EU beta headwind, less direct for crypto | oanda |
| BoE balance sheet | £0.87T | -£7B | -£19B | UK QT = marginal impact on global crypto | oanda |
| BoJ balance sheet | ¥735T | +¥6T | +¥17T | BoJ still dovish, supports global liquidity | oanda |
| PBoC net liquidity ops | +¥130B | +¥30B | +¥80B | Easing pace up, tailwind for EM/crypto | oanda |
| China TSF | +8.9% YoY | -0.3pp | -0.2pp | Weakening credit impulse, global beta drag | oanda |
| USDT net issuance | +$0.7B | +$2.3B | +$3.8B | Stablecoin growth = positive for on-chain liquidity | youtube |
| USDC net issuance | +$0.1B | +$0.3B | +$0.4B | Modest inflow, stabilizing after prior outflows | youtube |
| DAI net issuance | +$0.03B | +$0.11B | +$0.21B | Slight growth, DeFi TVL correlation | youtube |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Event/Status | Summary | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2025 | Global | FSB/IOSCO warnings | Gaps in crypto regulations, tokenization systemic risk flagged | Headwind | oanda |
| 15 Oct 2025 | US | SEC ETF reviews | Next approval window for BTC/ETH spot ETFs, decision pending | Tailwind | youtube |
| 28 Sep 2025 | EU | MiCA phase-in | New crypto regulatory regime begins; some clarity, some gaps | Mixed | oanda |
| 10 Oct 2025 | UK | Bank custody rules | FCA proposes new standards for crypto custody, public comment | Tailwind | oanda |
| 4 Nov 2025 | China | FX crackdown | PBoC tightens controls on cross-border flows, blocks exchanges | Headwind | oanda |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US real yields | US | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Higher yields = lower crypto beta | oanda |
| Regulatory clarity | US/EU/UK | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | ETF rules, custody, MiCA | oandayoutube |
| Stablecoin adoption | Global | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | On-chain flows, DeFi TVL, FX use | youtube |
| USD trend (DXY) | US | Mixed | 4 | 2–6w | Weak USD = tailwind, strong = headwind | youtube |
| Systemic risk warnings | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | FSB/IOSCO concerns, policy overhang | oanda |
| China credit impulse | China | Headwind | 2 | 1–3m | Weak TSF = less global beta | oanda |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
- Risk-On (30%): US CPI and NFP miss to downside, real yields fall, SEC approves spot ETF, DXY breaks support. BTC retests $108K, ETH $3,800, alts/DeFi rally. Analog: Early 2021, post-vaccine rallyoandayoutube.
- Base Case (50%): Macro data mixed, no major regulatory news, equities grind higher, DXY rangebound. BTC holds $93–99K, ETH $3,200–3,500, majors/stablecoins steady, DeFi TVL flat. Analog: Q2 2023, soft landing narrativeoanda.
- Risk-Off (20%): CPI/NFP hot, Fed pushes back on cuts, DXY spikes, ETF approvals delayed. BTC retests $85K, ETH $2,700, majors underperform, DeFi TVL contracts. Analog: May 2022, macro tightening shockoanda.
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Crypto Relevance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Dec | US NFP | US | +172k jobs | Labor cooling = Fed pivot odds, risk sentiment | oanda |
| 12 Dec | US CPI | US | 3.6% YoY | Hot/cold print sets macro risk bias | oanda |
| 18 Dec | FOMC Meeting | US | Policy hold | Dots/speech = liquidity, ETF approval window | youtube |
| 20 Dec | EU HICP | EU | 2.8% YoY | ECB reaction, euro beta | oanda |
| 12–18 Dec | SEC ETF window | US | Decision pending | Approval = major tailwind, delay = headwind | youtube |
| 22 Dec | UK CPI | UK | 3.3% YoY | BoE stance, GBP/USD vol | oanda |
| 23 Dec | China TSF/Credit | China | +9.0% YoY | Credit impulse, EM/crypto beta | oanda |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
Where possible, all asset levels and macro data sourced from primary/statistical agencies or major financial data providers (e.g., BLS, Fed, ECB, ONS, PBoC, TradingView, Bloomberg). Crypto market data drawn from TradingView, CoinGecko, and official provider dashboards. Regulatory developments referenced from FSB, IOSCO, SEC, FCA, and official government statements. Where paywalled, secondary sources (OANDA, CNBC) used for confirmation. Discrepancies (e.g., small differences in market cap or yield data) resolved by prioritizing direct official data feeds. All figures are as of 25 Nov 2025 or latest available print, unless otherwise noted.