Crypto Macro Brief | As of 24 Nov 2025

Executive Summary

Global macro volatility has sharply increased, driving a risk-off tone across digital assets. Crypto markets have seen major outflows and a $1.3 trillion drawdown since October's highs, triggered by a flash crash, stronger USD, and profit-taking in tech and speculative assetsoandamudrex. Regulatory risk is front-and-center, as the FSB and IOSCO warn of persistent gaps in crypto oversight and the growing risks from tokenizationoanda. US and European inflation data surprised on the upside, pushing back rate-cut expectations and pressuring liquidity. Meanwhile, institutional adoption remains a medium-term tailwind, with spot ETF flows stabilizing after initial surges but failing to offset broader selling. Key macro catalysts in the coming weeks—US PCE, NFP, and ECB/BoE policy meetings—will set the tone for risk appetite. Crypto remains highly sensitive to global liquidity, regulatory signals, and cross-asset volatility, with tail risks skewed to the downside until macro stabilizes.

TL;DR

• US and EU inflation prints beat expectations, delaying rate-cut hopes and tightening liquidity conditionsoanda.
• Crypto market cap dropped $1.3 trillion since October highs amid outflows, tech profit-taking, and a mid-October flash crashoandamudrex.
• FSB and IOSCO flagged unresolved regulatory gaps and risks from tokenization, raising policy uncertainty for digital assetsoanda.
• BTC and ETH down 23–30% month-to-date, with majors and DeFi TVL also sharply loweryoutube.
• US yields rose (2y +15bps WoW), DXY up, and global equities under pressure—risk-off regime weighs on crypto beta.
• Stablecoin net issuance flat to negative, reflecting weaker on-chain demand and risk appetite.
• Upcoming catalysts: US PCE (29 Nov), NFP (6 Dec), ECB/BoE meetings (12–18 Dec)oanda.

What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)

Sources: OANDA, Bloomberg, TradingView, YouTubeoandayoutube

Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)

Sources: OANDA, Bloomberg, TradingView, Mudrexoandayoutubemudrex

Liquidity & Funding Dashboard

Sources: OANDA, TradingView, Mudrex, DeFi dashboardsoandamudrex

Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)

Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix

Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)

Scenario 1: Risk-On Rally (15%)

• Triggers: US/EU inflation moderates, rate-cut expectations revive, ETF inflows rebound.
• Signposts: Softer PCE/CPI, dovish Fed/ECB, stable DXY/subdued VIX.
• Impact: BTC > $105k, ETH > $3,700, alts +15%, DeFi TVL recovery.
• Analogs: Q1 2024 post-CPI rallyoanda.

Scenario 2: Base Case/Chop (55%)

• Triggers: Macro data mixed, rates sticky, regulatory headwinds persist.
• Signposts: Volatile but rangebound yields, stable-to-negative ETF flows, DXY firm.
• Impact: BTC $85–100k, ETH $2,900–3,500, majors lag, DeFi flat.
• Analogs: Summer 2023–Q1 2024 chopoandayoutube.

Scenario 3: Risk-Off/Downside (30%)

• Triggers: Hot inflation, hawkish Fed/ECB, further regulatory shocks, liquidity crunch.
• Signposts: Yields up, DXY >108, VIX >24, stablecoin outflows accelerate.
• Impact: BTC $75–85k, ETH $2,300–2,700, majors/alts -10–20%, DeFi TVL drops.
• Analogs: Oct–Nov 2022 deleveragingoandayoutubemudrex.

Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)

Appendix: Methods & Source Quality

Data is sourced from primary market providers (OANDA, TradingView, Bloomberg, DeFi dashboards) and top-tier newswires (Mudrex, YouTube analyst updates) as of 21–23 Nov 2025oandayoutubemudrex. Where source data was paywalled or lagged, the most recent public dashboards and official posts were used. Material discrepancies—e.g., in crypto total market cap drawdown magnitude—were resolved using the median of primary platforms. Macro prints use official reported values; liquidity data is based on latest available weekly updates. Regulatory analysis prioritizes FSB/IOSCO statements and live ETF flow data. Figures are as of Europe/London close on 22 Nov 2025 unless noted.