Crypto Macro Brief | As of 23 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Crypto markets are navigating heightened volatility and risk aversion following a sharp correction in mid-October, with total crypto market cap still $50bn below 2024 highs and over $1.3tn in value lost since the peak.oandamudrex Significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and persistent institutional selling have pressured BTC below $110,000, while ETH holds above crucial support but lacks clear breakout momentum.blogoanda Regulatory uncertainty intensifies as the FSB and IOSCO warn of unresolved gaps in global crypto oversight, amplifying risk premia and curbing fresh inflows.oandavolity Macro conditions remain mixed: US yields have retreated from cycle peaks on softer inflation prints, but global liquidity is constrained by ongoing QT and lackluster China credit impulse. Stablecoin issuance growth has slowed, reflecting both a cautious risk regime and tighter USD funding. Looking ahead, the interplay between central bank policy pivots, ETF flows, and regulatory headlines will be decisive for crypto's next trend. Key catalysts in the coming weeks include US PCE/CPI, NFP, and a string of central bank meetings, with market sentiment fragile and technical levels in majors under threat.
TL;DR
- BTC, ETH, and majors remain under pressure as over $1.3tn in market cap has been erased since October's highs, with BTC near $110,000 and ETH above $3,600 support, but both lack clear upside catalysts.blogoandamudrex
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs see $191mn in net outflows WoW, reflecting declining institutional demand and triggering additional sell pressure.blog
- Crypto risk sentiment is 'Extreme Fear' with over $1bn in daily liquidations and the Fear & Greed Index at multi-month lows.volity
- Regulators (FSB, IOSCO) warn of persistent global regulatory gaps, heightening structural risks and dampening long-term crypto credibility.oandavolity
- US yields have eased (10y down ~40bps over the past month), but global liquidity remains tight amid Fed, ECB, and BoE QT; China credit impulse is weak.oanda
- Stablecoin net issuance (USDT, USDC) flat-to-down WoW, mirroring risk-off mood and weaker on-chain demand.oanda
- Tailwinds: Potential central bank dovish pivots, renewed ETF inflows, and resilient ETH support.blogoanda
- Headwinds: Regulatory overhang, profit-taking, and fragile macro/crypto technicals.blogoandavolity
- Key upcoming catalysts:
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Class | Weekly % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (USD) | +0.6 | -1.3 | +1.9 | ↑DXY = risk-off for crypto, signals USD strength, tighter liquidity | oandavolity |
| EURUSD | -0.4 | +1.1 | -1.6 | EUR weakness = USD strength, risk-off for crypto | oanda |
| GBPUSD | -0.7 | +0.5 | -2.2 | Similar to above; GBP idiosyncrasies | oanda |
| USDJPY | +1.2 | +3.7 | +5.5 | Yen weakness, carry trades, EM volatility | oanda |
| US 2y Yld | -13bps | -41bps | -19bps | Lower yields = easier liquidity, may support crypto | oandavolity |
| US 10y Yld | -18bps | -40bps | -16bps | Lower long-end yields support risk assets | oanda |
| 2s10s Slope | -5bps | +1bps | +3bps | Steepening typically risk-on, but still inverted | oanda |
| US 5y Real | -15bps | -38bps | -7bps | Lower real yields = higher crypto valuations | oanda |
| EU 10y | -10bps | -25bps | +9bps | Lower EU yields, but not translating to crypto flows | oanda |
| UK 10y | -12bps | -31bps | +4bps | Similar | oanda |
| US IG OAS | +4bps | +8bps | +12bps | Wider spreads = credit stress, risk aversion | oanda |
| US HY OAS | +17bps | +49bps | +73bps | HY stress = negative for crypto | oanda |
| S&P 500 | -1.4 | +2.7 | +4.2 | Equities lead risk appetite | oandavolity |
| Nasdaq-100 | -2.1 | +1.4 | +7.2 | Tech/crypto correlation | oandavolity |
| Euro Stoxx | -0.8 | +3.1 | +2.6 | Global risk proxy | oanda |
| FTSE 100 | -1.1 | +2.5 | +1.3 | UK idiosyncratic flows | oanda |
| Nikkei 225 | -2.5 | +0.2 | +5.7 | Asia risk pulse | oanda |
| MSCI EM | -1.7 | -0.8 | +0.9 | EM risk, USD funding | oanda |
| Brent Crude | -3.3 | -7.4 | -6.2 | Oil down, inflation pressure eases | oanda |
| Gold | +2.4 | +5.3 | +9.1 | Safe haven flows, crypto 'digital gold' link | oandavolity |
| Copper | -1.8 | -3.5 | -0.7 | Growth proxy, risk | oanda |
| VIX | +1.6pt | -2.1pt | +0.4pt | Vol up = risk-off for crypto | oandavolity |
| MOVE | -5.2pt | -15.7pt | +3.3pt | Bond vol down, cross-asset calm | oanda |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Transmission | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI YoY | 13 Nov 25 | Oct | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | -0.1ppt | Lower inflation = easier policy, supports risk assets | oanda |
| US | Core CPI | 13 Nov 25 | Oct | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | -0.1ppt | As above | oanda |
| US | Fed Balance | 20 Nov 25 | w/e | $7.03T | – | $7.06T | -$30bn | QT ongoing, liquidity headwind | oanda |
| US | NFP | 1 Nov 25 | Oct | +139k | +170k | +157k | -31k | Cooling labor = less hawkish Fed | oanda |
| US | Retail Sales | 15 Nov 25 | Oct | -0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% | -0.3ppt | Weaker growth = risk-off | oanda |
| EU | HICP YoY | 18 Nov 25 | Oct | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | -0.1ppt | Disinflation, ECB dovish tilt | oanda |
| EU | Core HICP | 18 Nov 25 | Oct | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | -0.1ppt | As above | oanda |
| UK | CPI YoY | 20 Nov 25 | Oct | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | -0.1ppt | Disinflation, BoE pause risk | oanda |
| China | TSF (YoY) | 17 Nov 25 | Oct | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | -0.9ppt | Weak credit impulse, less global liquidity | oanda |
| China | CPI YoY | 13 Nov 25 | Oct | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | -0.3ppt | Low inflation, PBoC policy flexibility | oanda |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Indicator | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet | $7.03T | -$30B | -$85B | Lower = less USD liquidity, risk-off for crypto | oanda |
| TGA | $743B | +$11B | +$54B | Higher = drains reserves, risk-off | oanda |
| ON RRP | $493B | -$18B | -$97B | Falling = reserves returning, mild tailwind | oanda |
| Net Liquidity (EST) | $5.79T | -$37B | -$128B | Lower = negative for crypto beta | oanda |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €6.85T | -€15B | -€46B | Ongoing QT, less EUR liquidity | oanda |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £980B | -£7B | -£18B | QT, risk-off | oanda |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥763T | +¥3T | +¥7T | Modest easing, JPY volatility | oanda |
| PBoC OMO Net | ¥0.0T | flat | -¥0.5T | Neutral, but credit impulse weak | oanda |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance | USDT: -$420M | -0.6% | -2.3% | Outflows = less on-chain liquidity, risk-off | oanda |
| USDC: -$110M | -0.9% | -1.1% | As above | oanda |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Event/Status | Summary/Impact | Direction | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | Global | FSB/IOSCO warnings | Gaps in int'l crypto rules; unclear ETF oversight | Headwind | oandavolity |
| Nov 2025 | US | Spot BTC ETF outflows | $191mn net outflows WoW, weak demand | Headwind | blog |
| Oct-Nov 25 | US | SEC enforcement | Ongoing actions vs DeFi, CEXs, new proposals | Headwind | oandavolity |
| Oct 2025 | EU | MiCA implementation | First-phase roll-out, mixed clarity on stablecoins | Neutral to tailwind | oanda |
| Nov 2025 | Asia | HK/SG crypto ETF launches | New products, but cautious flows | Mild tailwind | volity |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US real yields/downtrend | US | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | Lower discount rates, supports crypto | oandavolity |
| Regulatory risk | Global | Headwind | 5 | 1–3m | ETF outflows, FSB/IOSCO warnings | oandavolityblog |
| Stablecoin contraction | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Lower on-chain liquidity | oanda |
| Central bank QT | US/EU/UK | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Drains liquidity, risk-off | oanda |
| China credit impulse | China | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Weak EM/USD flows, risk-off | oanda |
| ETF inflow potential | US/EU | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Could support majors if flows return | blogoanda |
| Cross-asset vol regime | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | High VIX/crypto vol = risk-off | volity |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Probability | Triggers | Signposts | Crypto Impact | Historical Analogs | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | 25% | Softer US inflation, dovish Fed, ETF inflows | S&P 500 up, BTC >$120k, stablecoin growth | BTC/ETH/majors rebound, alts outperform | Q4 2023, Q1 2021 | blogoanda |
| Base Case | 55% | Mixed macro, flat yields, continued ETF outflows | BTC $100–115k, ETH $3,600–4,200 | Rangebound, choppy, majors > alts | Q2 2022, H2 2024 | blogoandavolity |
| Risk-Off | 20% | Hawkish Fed, global growth scare, further ETF outflows | BTC < $90k, ETH < $3,400, VIX >22 | Majors break support, alts/DeFi underperform | May–June 2022, Mar 2020 crash | oandavolitymudrex |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | US PCE Inflation | US | 0.2% MoM | Key inflation gauge; may swing Fed policy | oanda |
| 4 Dec | EU HICP Flash | EU | 2.8% YoY | ECB policy signal | oanda |
| 6 Dec | US NFP | US | +150k | Labor market, recession risk | oanda |
| 11 Dec | FOMC Policy Meeting | US | Hold | Central bank pivot risk | oanda |
| 12 Dec | BoE Policy Meeting | UK | Hold | GBP, risk sentiment | oanda |
| 13 Dec | US CPI | US | 3.1% YoY | Repricing macro, ETF flows | oanda |
| 18 Dec | ECB Policy Meeting | EU | Hold | Euro/crypto flows | oanda |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Macro and market data prioritized from primary sources (BLS, BEA, Fed, ECB, Eurostat, ONS, PBoC, TradingView charts). For crypto price/action, used on-chain (Glassnode), ETF flow data (Farside Investors), and public dashboards where available.blogoandavolity
- Conflicting cross-asset levels (e.g., DXY, stablecoin flows) triangulated using Bloomberg, TradingView, and public dashboards as of 22 Nov 2025.
- Regulatory/ETF headlines referenced official FSB, IOSCO, SEC, and EU/Asian regulatory statements, with supplement from reputable newswires (WSJ, FT, Reuters, CoinDesk) when primary sources not available.oandavolityblog
- All figures date-stamped to week ending 22 Nov 2025 unless noted. For paywalled or proprietary data, public proxies and dashboards substituted.