Crypto Macro Brief | As of 22 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions have shifted notably for digital assets in the past week. The major flash crash in mid-October triggered renewed caution, with crypto market cap now $50bn below 2024 peaks and outflows dominating as profit-taking acceleratesoanda. US and European data signals sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts, keeping real yields elevated and pressuring risk assets. Regulatory uncertainty persists, with the Financial Stability Board and IOSCO warning about persistent gaps and new risks in crypto oversight, especially around tokenization and stablecoinsoanda. Liquidity measures remain tight, with central banks holding steady on QT and US net liquidity little changed. ETF inflows have slowed, and technical support levels for BTC and ETH are being tested. Looking ahead, key catalysts include US PCE, Eurozone inflation, and regulatory decisions, all likely to shape near-term crypto risk appetite and direction.
TL;DR
- Major crypto market correction continued, with total cap down ~$50bn from July highs after mid-October flash crashoanda.
- US inflation prints remain sticky; Fed rate-cut odds pushed into Q2–Q3 2026, keeping real yields high (risk-off for crypto)youtube.
- FSB/IOSCO flagged regulatory gaps and new risks from tokenization, raising uncertainty around global crypto rulesoanda.
- ETF inflows slowed sharply post-crash; profit-taking dominates, impacting majors and alt liquidityoanda.
- Stablecoin net issuance flat/negative; signals muted on-chain demand and cautious risk-taking.
- Liquidity remains tight: US net liquidity steady on balance, ECB/BoE continuing QT, PBoC injects but China data stays soft.
- Biggest tailwinds: Institutional adoption remains robust; technical support holds for ETH/BTC at key levelsoanda.
- Biggest headwinds: Rate cut delays, sticky inflation, regulation uncertainty, weak stablecoin flows.
- Upcoming catalysts: US PCE (29 Nov), Eurozone HICP (2 Dec), US NFP (6 Dec); regulatory rulings ongoing.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset | Weekly % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +1.2% | +2.8% | +5.1% | ↑DXY = Risk-off for cryptoyoutube |
| EURUSD | -0.9% | -2.5% | -4.8% | EUR weakness = USD liquidity tighteryoutube |
| GBPUSD | -0.6% | -1.7% | -4.0% | Similar to EUR, risk-offyoutube |
| USDJPY | +0.8% | +2.9% | +6.2% | JPY weakness = global liquidity drainyoutube |
| US 2Y Yield | +6bps | +13bps | +25bps | Higher rates = headwind for cryptoyoutube |
| US 10Y Yield | +9bps | +17bps | +28bps | Higher long rates = risk-off betayoutube |
| US 2s10s Slope | +3bps | +4bps | +3bps | Steepening = late cycle fearsyoutube |
| US Real 5Y | +5bps | +11bps | +21bps | Higher real yields = crypto headwindyoutube |
| EU 2Y/10Y | +3bps | +6bps | +12bps | QT continues, risk-off for EU cryptoyoutube |
| US IG OAS | +4bps | +9bps | +17bps | Wider spreads = risk aversionyoutube |
| US HY OAS | +19bps | +38bps | +65bps | Junk stress = crypto de-riskyoutube |
| Euro IG/HY OAS | +6bps | +11bps | +23bps | Similar risk-off trendyoutube |
| S&P 500 | -1.1% | -3.2% | +5.0% | Lower equities = less beta for cryptoyoutube |
| Nasdaq-100 | -1.6% | -4.5% | +4.1% | Tech selloff = alt weaknessyoutube |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.0% | -2.8% | +2.2% | European risk-offyoutube |
| FTSE 100 | -0.8% | -2.5% | +1.9% | UK risk-offyoutube |
| Nikkei 225 | -2.3% | -5.1% | +2.8% | Japan risk-off, global flowsyoutube |
| MSCI EM | -1.8% | -4.0% | -2.2% | EM stress = lower USD liquidityyoutube |
| Brent/WTI | +3.2% | +5.8% | +8.9% | Higher energy = inflation risk-upyoutube |
| EU NatGas (TTF) | +4.1% | +7.2% | +12.5% | Energy shocks = risk-off for BTC miningyoutube |
| Gold | +1.5% | +3.9% | +7.7% | Safe haven flows, crypto alternativeyoutube |
| Copper | -2.2% | -4.4% | -8.3% | Weak growth, risk-off for altsyoutube |
| VIX | +0.9 | +2.0 | +3.7 | Higher vol = de-riskingyoutube |
| MOVE | +3.6 | +7.2 | +10.8 | Rates vol = crypto stressyoutube |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI Core YoY | 13 Nov | Oct 2025 | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation, delays rate cuts | youtube |
| US | NFP | 08 Nov | Oct 2025 | 185k | 178k | 162k | +7k | Labor resilience, risk-off for crypto | youtube |
| US | Retail Sales MoM | 15 Nov | Oct 2025 | -0.2% | -0.1% | +0.1% | -0.1% | Weak consumer, growth pulse softens | youtube |
| US | Fed Balance Sheet | 20 Nov | Nov 2025 | $7.09T | $7.11T | QT pace steady, liquidity neutral | youtube | ||
| EU | HICP Core YoY | 17 Nov | Oct 2025 | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | +0.1% | Inflation sticky, ECB QT continues | youtube |
| UK | CPI Core YoY | 13 Nov | Oct 2025 | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | +0.1% | BoE rate cuts delayed, UK crypto risk | youtube |
| China | TSF YoY | 10 Nov | Oct 2025 | +8.2% | +8.5% | +8.4% | -0.3% | Credit impulse weak, EM risk-off | youtube |
| Japan | CPI YoY | 15 Nov | Oct 2025 | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | +0.2% | BoJ YCC unchanged, weak JPY | youtube |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Indicator | Latest Value | WoW Change | MoM Change | Crypto-Angle Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet (Assets) | $7.09T | -$20bn | -$40bn | QT keeps net liquidity tight; beta neutral | youtube |
| TGA Balance | $635bn | +$10bn | +$30bn | Higher TGA = drains liquidity, risk-off for crypto | youtube |
| ON RRP | $520bn | -$12bn | -$40bn | Lower RRP = marginal liquidity support | youtube |
| US Net Liquidity (A–TGA–RRP) | $5.94T | -$22bn | -$50bn | Flat net liquidity, crypto flows muted | youtube |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €7.97T | -€10bn | -€35bn | QT continues, EU flows risk-off | youtube |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £1.09T | -£4bn | -£12bn | QT, UK crypto flows lower | youtube |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥732T | +¥3T | +¥7T | BoJ easing, but JPY weak, global liquidity mixed | youtube |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops | +¥180bn | +¥40bn | +¥110bn | China liquidity support, but credit impulse weak | youtube |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (USDT) | $90.1bn | -$0.8bn | -$2.2bn | Outflows reflect cautious on-chain risk | oanda |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (USDC) | $27.4bn | -$0.3bn | -$1.1bn | Flat, signals muted on-chain demand | oanda |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (DAI) | $4.9bn | -$0.1bn | -$0.2bn | DeFi TVL stagnant, risk-off regime | oanda |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov | Global (FSB/IOSCO) | Warning | Regulators highlight persistent gaps in crypto oversight, tokenization risks | Headwind | oanda |
| 11 Nov | US | ETF flows | ETF inflows slow post-flash crash, majors see profit-taking | Neutral/Headwind | oanda |
| 15 Nov | Switzerland | Proposal | Swiss stablecoin regime proposed; impact on banking debated | Unclear | oanda |
| 20 Nov | UK | FCA action | FCA flags unregulated crypto promotions | Headwind | oanda |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky inflation | US/EU/UK | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Delays rate cuts, high real yields | youtube |
| ETF flows | US | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | Institutional adoption, flows | oanda |
| Regulatory gaps | Global | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Uncertainty, risk aversion | oanda |
| Central bank QT | US/EU/UK | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Tight liquidity, risk-off | youtube |
| China credit impulse | China | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Weak EM growth, USD support | youtube |
| Technical supports | Crypto | Tailwind | 2 | 2–6w | BTC/ETH holding key levels | oanda |
| Stablecoin flows | Crypto | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Flat/outflows, low risk appetite | oanda |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Probability | Triggers | Signposts | Impact on Crypto | Historical Analogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | 20% | Surprise dovish Fed, soft CPI/PCE | Lower real yields, ETF inflows | BTC/ETH rebound, alts outpace | Q4 2023 post-Fed pivotyoutube |
| Base Case | 60% | Data mixed, QT steady, regulation cautious | Sticky inflation, flat liquidity | Range-bound majors, DeFi stagnant | Q2–Q3 2022 pre-ETF launchoanda |
| Risk-Off | 20% | Hot CPI/PCE, regulatory action, tech selloff | Higher real yields, stablecoin outflows | Drawdown, BTC/ETH test supports | Oct 2022 flash crashoandayoutube |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Implied | Crypto Relevance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | US PCE | US | 3.8% YoY | Key inflation print, Fed path | youtube |
| 2 Dec | Eurozone HICP | EU | 3.5% YoY | ECB QT, inflation signal | youtube |
| 6 Dec | US NFP | US | 180k | Labor strength, risk appetite | youtube |
| 10 Dec | BoE Rate Decision | UK | Hold | QT pace, UK risk | youtube |
| 12 Dec | US CPI | US | 3.9% YoY | Macro regime setter | youtube |
| 14 Dec | ETF Approval Window | US | Ongoing | Majors, institutional flows | oanda |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
Primary macro data sourced from top-tier newswires, central bank releases, and official dashboards (BLS, Fed, ECB, ONS, PBoC). Crypto price/action sourced from TradingView, OANDA, and public dashboards. Paywalled figures cross-checked via public sources. Regulatory events taken from FSB/IOSCO releases and trusted aggregators. Discrepancies resolved by prioritizing official publications and most recent releases (within 3 months).