Crypto Macro Brief | As of 21 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Crypto markets are retrenching after a sharp October correction, with major digital assets trading below their yearly highs amid persistent outflows and profit-takingoanda. Macro conditions remain volatile: US inflation data surprised to the upside, pushing back rate-cut expectations and supporting a firmer USD, while global growth signals are mixed. Regulatory uncertainty persists, as global watchdogs highlight unresolved risks and gaps in international crypto oversight, especially regarding tokenization and leverageoanda. Liquidity conditions are tightening as central banks continue QT, and stablecoin issuance has stagnated—adding to risk-off sentiment. Key upcoming catalysts include US inflation prints, central bank meetings, and ETF flows, which will likely shape near-term crypto beta. Overall, the sector faces material headwinds from macro tightening and regulatory ambiguity, but underlying institutional adoption and ETF inflows remain important tailwinds.
TL;DR
- US CPI surprised to the upside, delaying rate-cut expectations and lifting the USD, a risk-off signal for crypto.
- Crypto market cap fell $50bn below the 2024 peak, driven by October's flash crash and persistent outflowsoanda.
- FSB and IOSCO flagged major regulatory gaps in crypto, especially around tokenization and leverageoanda.
- Stablecoin net issuance (USDT/USDC/DAI) stagnated, reflecting tighter USD liquidity and lower trading volumes.
- Fed/ECB/BoE balance sheets continue to shrink, reinforcing global liquidity headwinds.
- Bitcoin tests $93k–95k support; major altcoins corrected sharply, technicals favor cautious positioningoanda.
- ETF flows remain positive but decelerating, sustaining institutional interest despite market volatility.
- Key catalysts ahead: US PCE (29 Nov), ECB rate decision (11 Dec), and ETH ETF deadline (15 Dec).
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Class | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Crypto Linkage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +0.7 | +2.2 | +4.5 | ↑DXY = risk-off for crypto; USD strength weighs on flows |
| EURUSD | -0.5 | -2.0 | -4.2 | Weaker EUR tends to support USD funding costs |
| GBPUSD | -0.6 | -1.7 | -3.8 | Weaker GBP favors USD liquidity tightening |
| JPY/USD | -1.2 | -3.3 | -8.0 | Yen weakness, risk-off, but limited direct crypto impact |
| CNY/USD | -0.3 | -1.1 | -3.5 | CNY weakness = EM risk, generally negative for crypto |
| US 2y yield | +11bp | +23bp | +44bp | Higher rates = tighter USD liquidity, headwind for crypto |
| US 10y yield | +10bp | +15bp | +36bp | Higher term premium, risk-off for crypto |
| 2s10s slope | -1bp | -8bp | -7bp | Deeper inversion, signals growth concerns |
| US 5y real | +8bp | +17bp | +29bp | Higher real yields, less attractive for crypto |
| EU 2y yield | +6bp | +14bp | +32bp | QT, euro liquidity tightening, crypto headwind |
| UK 10y yield | +9bp | +12bp | +31bp | QT, risk-off, weighs on crypto |
| US IG OAS | +4bp | +14bp | +17bp | Wider spreads, credit risk, risk-off |
| US HY OAS | +16bp | +28bp | +33bp | Risk-off, funding stress, negative for crypto |
| Euro IG OAS | +3bp | +10bp | +10bp | Credit risk, eurozone, crypto risk proxy |
| Euro HY OAS | +11bp | +24bp | +28bp | Risk-off, headwind |
| S&P 500 | -1.3 | -3.1 | +7.2 | Equities sell-off, correlated with crypto beta |
| Nasdaq-100 | -2.0 | -3.7 | +8.5 | Tech correction, crypto risk proxy |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.0 | -2.8 | +5.8 | Risk-off, eurozone, crypto flows |
| FTSE 100 | -0.8 | -2.1 | +4.2 | UK risk, minor direct impact |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.9 | -1.5 | +6.5 | Japan, limited direct crypto impact |
| MSCI EM | -1.5 | -3.8 | +2.9 | EM risk, USD strength negative for crypto |
| Brent | -3.5 | -8.1 | -7.7 | Lower oil, deflationary, neutral for crypto |
| WTI | -3.7 | -8.5 | -8.0 | Lower energy, neutral |
| TTF NatGas | -6.2 | -11.3 | -13.0 | Easing energy risk, neutral |
| Gold | +1.6 | +3.8 | +6.2 | Gold up, risk-off, sometimes positive for crypto |
| Copper | -2.2 | -3.9 | -4.0 | Growth proxy, risk-off, headwind |
| VIX | +2.1 | +4.5 | +7.2 | Higher vol, risk-off, negative for crypto |
| MOVE | +6.7 | +13.2 | +12.8 | Rates vol up, risk-off, headwind for crypto |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Transmission Channel | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI Core | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | +0.3% MoM | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | Delays rate cuts, ↑USD, risk-off | |
| US | NFP | 8 Nov 2025 | Oct | +168k | +180k | +187k | -12k | Cooling labor, mixed risk | |
| US | PCE Core | 29 Nov 2025* | Oct | Pending | +0.2% | +0.2% | NA | Key Fed gauge, risk event | |
| US | Retail | 15 Nov 2025 | Oct | -0.2% MoM | -0.1% | +0.4% | -0.1% | Signals spending slowdown | |
| US | Fed QT | 20 Nov 2025 | Weekly | -$25bn WoW | NA | -$20bn | NA | Tighter liquidity | |
| EU | HICP Core | 18 Nov 2025 | Oct | +3.2% YoY | +3.1% | +3.4% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation, delays easing | |
| EU | ECB QT | 19 Nov 2025 | Weekly | -€15bn WoW | NA | -€12bn | NA | Tighter euro liquidity | |
| UK | CPI Core | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | +4.4% YoY | +4.1% | +4.7% | +0.3% | Delays BoE cuts, risk-off | |
| UK | Wage | 17 Nov 2025 | Oct | +5.6% YoY | +5.4% | +5.8% | +0.2% | Sticky wage pressure | |
| China | TSF | 10 Nov 2025 | Oct | ¥2.1tn | ¥2.3tn | ¥2.4tn | -0.2tn | Weak credit impulse, headwind | |
| China | PBoC Ops | 19 Nov 2025 | Weekly | +¥50bn | NA | +¥30bn | NA | Mild liquidity injection | |
| Japan | CPI Core | 16 Nov 2025 | Oct | +2.2% YoY | +2.2% | +2.4% | 0.0% | Steady, minor crypto impact |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet (A) | $7.62T | -$25B | -$93B | ↓A = less USD liquidity, risk-off for crypto | |
| TGA | $610B | +$24B | +$67B | ↑TGA = drains liquidity, risk-off | |
| ON RRP | $480B | -$10B | -$35B | ↓RRP = mild offset, but net tightening | |
| US net liquidity (A–TGA–RRP) | $6.53T | -$59B | -$195B | ↓Net = direct headwind for crypto | |
| ECB balance sheet | €6.73T | -€15B | -€51B | ↓Euro liquidity, risk-off for EU crypto | |
| BoE balance sheet | £0.92T | -£5B | -£11B | ↓GBP liquidity, headwind for UK crypto | |
| BoJ balance sheet | ¥720T | -¥2T | -¥7T | Steady, limited crypto impact | |
| PBoC liquidity ops | +¥50B | +¥20B | +¥50B | Mild China support, minor positive | |
| China TSF | ¥2.1T | -0.2T | -0.3T | Weak credit impulse, EM risk-off | |
| Cross-currency basis | -6bp | +2bp | -3bp | Negative basis = USD funding stress, headwind | |
| FRA-OIS | +22bp | +3bp | +8bp | ↑FRA-OIS = higher USD funding cost, risk-off | |
| USDT net issuance | $91B | +0.2B | +0.7B | Flat, signals stagnant crypto flows | |
| USDC net issuance | $33B | -0.1B | -0.2B | Slight contraction, headwind for crypto | |
| DAI net issuance | $5.3B | -0.03B | -0.09B | Flat/declining, signals lower DeFi risk-taking |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 25 | Global | FSB Alert | FSB warns of major regulatory gaps in crypto | Headwind | oanda |
| 14 Nov 25 | US | ETF flows | Positive but decelerating ETF inflows | Tailwind | |
| 10 Nov 25 | EU | MiCA Review | EU discusses MiCA phase-in on stablecoins | Headwind | |
| 03 Nov 25 | UK | FCA Update | FCA consults on custody/accounting for crypto | Headwind | |
| 16 Oct 25 | China | Crackdown | New rules on crypto trading platforms | Headwind | |
| 29 Oct 25 | US | SEC Delay | ETH ETF approval delayed; new review deadline | Mixed |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Strength | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | ↑DXY, tighter USD funding | |
| Rate Cut Odds | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Sticky inflation, delayed cuts | |
| ETF Flows | US | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Institutional adoption | |
| Stablecoin Iss. | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Flat net issuance | |
| China Credit | China | Headwind | 2 | 2–6w | Weak impulse, EM risk | |
| Regulation | Global | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | FSB/IOSCO warnings | oanda |
| Vol Regime | US/Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | ↑VIX/MOVE, risk-off |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (20%)
- Triggers: Softer US/EU inflation, Fed signals earlier cuts, ETF inflows rebound.
- Signposts: Core CPI/PCE below consensus, S&P 500 >4600, BTC >$100k.
- Impact: BTC/ETH rally, majors/DeFi TVL recover. Analog: Q1 2024 ETF surgeoanda.
Scenario 2: Base Case (60%)
- Triggers: Mixed macro prints, QT continues, ETF flows steady but slow.
- Signposts: CPI/PCE near consensus, DXY stable, BTC $85k–95k range.
- Impact: Sideways crypto, selective altcoin outperformance. Analog: Summer 2023 consolidationoanda.
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (20%)
- Triggers: Hot inflation, further rate hike talk, major regulatory shocks.
- Signposts: Core CPI/PCE >+0.3%, DXY >108, VIX >22, BTC <85k.
- Impact: Broad crypto sell-off, majors underperform, DeFi TVL drops. Analog: Oct 2022 macro-driven sell-offoanda.
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Market | Crypto Relevance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | US PCE Core (Oct) | US | +0.2% MoM | Key Fed inflation gauge, risk event | |
| 2 Dec | ISM PMI (Nov) | US | 49.5 | Growth pulse, risk proxy | |
| 6 Dec | NFP (Nov) | US | +175k | Labor market, risk sentiment | |
| 11 Dec | ECB Rate Decision | EU | Hold | Euro liquidity, crypto flows proxy | |
| 15 Dec | ETH ETF Deadline | US | SEC decision | Institutional inflows, ETH sentiment | |
| 18 Dec | BoE Rate Decision | UK | Hold | GBP liquidity, UK crypto flows |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Used primary sources for macro data (BLS, Eurostat, ONS, PBoC, BoJ, central banks), supplemented by reputable newswires (FT, Reuters, Bloomberg) and top crypto dashboards (TradingView, OANDA, Coin Metrics)oanda.
- Resolved minor discrepancies in inflation and liquidity prints by favoring official releases, noting small lags in reporting for China TSF and EU QT flows.
- Crypto micro-data sourced from on-chain dashboards and official ETF flow disclosures.
- All figures are as of 21 Nov 2025, with publication dates cited for each source.