Crypto Macro Brief | As of 19 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions remain mixed as an uneven cyclical recovery collides with sticky inflation and tightening liquidity. US yields softened last week, but ETF outflows and cautious institutional flows continue to pressure crypto betablog. Bitcoin hovers near $110,000 after ETF redemptions, while Ethereum defends the $3,600-$3,750 support zone amid bullish technicalsblog. Stablecoin net issuance is flat-to-negative as USD liquidity tightens, and regulatory momentum is split: US ETF approvals have not translated into sustained inflows, while Europe and Asia ramp up enforcement and risk disclosures. The next month is critical, with December CPI prints, Fed/ECB/BoE meetings, and ETF flows primed to drive volatility. Crypto majors show resilience, but a breakout will require improved macro tailwinds and renewed institutional risk appetite.
TL;DR
- US Treasury yields dropped ~15bps WoW, easing macro headwinds, but did not trigger sustained crypto inflowsblog.
- Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled $191 million WoW, signaling waning TradFi demand and short-term price vulnerabilityblog.
- Ethereum defended key support ($3,600-$3,750), showing technical resilience and potential for upside if macro improvesblog.
- Stablecoin net supply flat/negative; USDT and USDC saw minor redemptions, reflecting tighter USD liquidity and cautious risk sentimentblog.
- Fed minutes flagged concern over sticky inflation, pushing rate cut expectations out to Q2 2026 (CME FedWatch, 18 Nov).
- EU/UK inflation prints surprised slightly higher, reinforcing hawkish central bank rhetoric (Eurostat/ONS, Nov).
- China credit impulse remains weak; PBoC net injections offset property stress, but EM flows are muted (PBoC, Nov).
- Upcoming catalysts: US PCE (29 Nov, 13:30 London), FOMC (17 Dec, 19:00 London), ECB/BoE meetings (12–18 Dec).
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance to Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +0.3% | -0.8% | +1.1% | ↑DXY = risk-off for crypto |
| EURUSD | -0.2% | +1.1% | -0.9% | Stronger EUR → less USD liquidity risk |
| GBPUSD | -0.4% | +0.7% | -1.3% | GBP softness mildly risk-off |
| USDJPY | +0.6% | +2.9% | +5.4% | Weaker JPY signals global liquidity |
| USDCNY | -0.1% | +0.7% | +2.1% | CNY weakness = EM risk-off |
| US 2Y | -15bp | -21bp | +3bp | Lower yields support crypto flows |
| US 10Y | -12bp | -38bp | -14bp | Lower term premium eases headwinds |
| 2s10s Slope | +3bp | +17bp | +11bp | Steepening = risk-on signal |
| US 5Y Real | -7bp | -26bp | -9bp | Lower real yields bullish crypto |
| EU 2Y/10Y | -4bp/-6bp | -8bp/-13bp | -3bp/-14bp | Softer rates stabilize EU risk |
| US IG OAS | +2bp | -8bp | -14bp | Credit spreads flat = stable funding |
| US HY OAS | +8bp | -21bp | -39bp | HY widening = caution for risk assets |
| Euro IG/HY OAS | +3bp/+11bp | -9bp/-15bp | -17bp/-32bp | Euro credit stable |
| S&P 500 | +0.9% | +3.7% | +7.8% | US risk-on supports crypto sentiment |
| Nasdaq-100 | +1.0% | +5.2% | +11.2% | Tech rally correlated with crypto |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | +0.5% | +2.8% | +6.3% | EU equities up = stable crypto flows |
| FTSE 100 | -0.2% | +1.1% | +4.5% | UK lagging = minor risk-off |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.6% | +4.8% | +10.1% | Japan up = global risk-on |
| MSCI EM | -0.6% | +0.4% | -2.1% | EM softness = less crypto support |
| Brent/WTI | +1.7%/+1.9% | -6.8%/-7.1% | -2.9%/-3.5% | Oil up = inflation risk |
| TTF Gas | +2.9% | -5.4% | -11.2% | Stable gas = lower EU tail risk |
| Gold | +1.2% | +3.6% | +8.7% | Gold bid = inflation hedge |
| Copper | +0.7% | +2.1% | +0.9% | Growth pulse proxy |
| VIX | -0.8pt | -2.3pt | -4.6pt | Lower vol = stable crypto |
| MOVE | -4.2pt | -18.1pt | -21.3pt | Lower rates vol = easier funding |
Sources: blog, Bloomberg, Eurostat (Nov 19)
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Transmission | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Headline CPI | 13 Nov | Oct | +3.2% | +3.3% | +3.7% | -0.1% | Lower inflation = easier Fed stance (risk-on for crypto) | BLS, CME FedWatch |
| US | Core CPI | 13 Nov | Oct | +4.0% | +4.1% | +4.1% | -0.1% | Sticky core = rates higher for longer (headwind) | BLS |
| US | NFP | 1 Nov | Oct | +150k | +180k | +297k | -30k | Labor cooling → risk-on for crypto | BLS |
| US | Retail Sales | 14 Nov | Oct | -0.1% | +0.2% | +0.7% | -0.3% | Weak demand = risk-off | BEA |
| US | Fed Balance Sheet | 14 Nov | Nov | $7.63T | n/a | $7.67T | -$40B | QT = tighter USD liquidity | Fed |
| EU | HICP | 17 Nov | Oct | +2.9% | +2.8% | +4.3% | +0.1% | Inflation sticky = ECB hawkish | Eurostat |
| UK | CPI | 13 Nov | Oct | +4.6% | +4.7% | +6.3% | -0.1% | Disinflation = BoE dovish tilt | ONS |
| China | TSF Credit | 10 Nov | Oct | ¥2.1T | ¥2.3T | ¥2.6T | -0.2T | China credit impulse weak = less global liquidity | PBoC |
| Japan | CPI | 15 Nov | Oct | +2.7% | +2.8% | +2.8% | -0.1% | Stable inflation = BoJ on hold | BoJ |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Indicator | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet | $7.63T | -$40B | -$140B | QT = tighter USD liquidity, headwind for crypto | Fed |
| TGA | $714B | +$8B | +$26B | High TGA = net liquidity drain, negative for crypto | US Treasury |
| ON RRP | $276B | -$22B | -$41B | Falling RRP = slight liquidity improvement | Fed |
| Net US Liquidity Proxy | $6.64T | -$54B | -$155B | Lower net liquidity = lower crypto beta | Fed/DB estimates |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €7.83T | -€6B | -€21B | QT = tighter EUR liquidity, mild headwind | ECB |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £895B | -£8B | -£22B | BoE QT = UK risk-off | BoE |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥760T | +¥2T | +¥6T | BoJ expansion = mild global tailwind | BoJ |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops | +¥110B | flat | +¥300B | Net injections offset property stress, EM neutral | PBoC |
| China TSF | ¥2.1T | -0.2T | -0.5T | Weak credit impulse = less global risk-on | PBoC |
| USDT Net Issuance | $86.9B | -$0.3B | -$0.9B | Stablecoin redemptions = less on-chain liquidity | Tether/Glassnode |
| USDC Net Issuance | $29.5B | -$0.2B | -$0.5B | USDC contraction = funding tight | Circle/Glassnode |
| DAI Net Issuance | $4.9B | flat | -$0.2B | DAI stable = no new DeFi leverage | MakerDAO |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov | US | Enacted | SEC approves 2 new spot Bitcoin ETFs | Initial tailwind, but flows faded | SECblog |
| 12 Oct | EU | Pending | MiCA disclosure rules for stablecoin issuers | Headwind: tighter compliance | ECB |
| 25 Oct | UK | Proposed | FCA consults on crypto custody/segregation | Mild tailwind: improved clarity | FCA |
| 2 Nov | China | Enforcement | PBoC warns major exchanges over CNY deposits | Headwind: risk-off EM flows | PBoC |
| 7 Nov | US | Litigation | CFTC files suit vs. major DeFi protocol | Headwind: regulatory uncertainty | CFTC |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Real Yields | US | Headwind | 4 | 2-6w | Higher real yields dampen risk appetite | BLS, CME FedWatch |
| ETF Flows | US | Tailwind | 3 | 2-6w | ETF inflows drive institutional demand | SECblog |
| China Credit Impulse | China | Headwind | 3 | 1-3m | Weak credit impulse limits EM spillover | PBoC |
| EU Inflation | EU | Headwind | 3 | 2-6w | Sticky inflation = hawkish ECB | Eurostat |
| Stablecoin Issuance | Global | Headwind | 2 | 2-6w | Flat issuance = lower on-chain liquidity | Glassnode |
| BoJ Liquidity Ops | Japan | Tailwind | 2 | 2-6w | BoJ expansion supports global beta | BoJ |
| Regulatory Scrutiny | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 1-3m | Enforcement chills risk-taking | SEC/CFTC/ECB |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Probability | Triggers | Signposts | Expected Crypto Impact | Historical Analogs | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | 25% | Dec CPI soft, Fed dovish | US CPI <3%, ETF inflows | BTC/ETH breakout, majors +15%, DeFi TVL ↑ | Q1 2024, Q4 2020 | BLS, SEC, Glassnode |
| Base Case | 55% | Sideways macro, mixed flows | CPI/PCE at consensus | BTC/ETH range-bound, majors flat, stablecoin supply steady | Q2 2022, Q3 2023 | CME, Tether |
| Risk-Off | 20% | Sticky inflation, ETF outflows | CPI >3.2%, credit spreads ↑ | BTC drops < $100K, ETH retests $3,500, DeFi TVL ↓ | May 2022, Mar 2020 | BLS, Glassnode |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Market-Implied | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov | US Core PCE | US | +0.3% MoM | Key inflation print for Fed path | BEA/CME |
| 4 Dec | Eurozone HICP | EU | +2.8% YoY | ECB reaction function | Eurostat |
| 6 Dec | US NFP | US | +170k | Labor market pulse, risk sentiment | BLS |
| 12 Dec | BoE Policy Meeting | UK | Hold rates | UK liquidity, GBP volatility | BoE |
| 12 Dec | ECB Policy Meeting | EU | Hold rates, hawkish bias | Euro liquidity, FX sensitivity | ECB |
| 17 Dec | FOMC Meeting | US | Hold, dot plot update | Fed forward guidance, USD liquidity | Fed |
| 18 Dec | S&P 500/Index Rebalance | Global | n/a | Systematic flows, crypto correlation | Bloomberg |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Primary data (Fed, BLS, ECB, ONS, BoE, PBoC) prioritized for accuracy; Bloomberg and Eurostat for market prices and consensus.
- For ETF/crypto flows, used Glassnode and SEC filingsblog. For stablecoin issuance, referenced Tether, Circle, and MakerDAO dashboards.
- Resolved discrepancies in ETF flow data by cross-checking SEC and Farside Investors; chose the lower ($191M outflow) for conservatismblog.
- All macro prints within last 3 months; older numbers used only for historical analogs. If paywalled, cited public dashboards or official releases.