Crypto Macro Brief | As of 17 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
The global macro landscape is driving a period of consolidation in digital assets, with Bitcoin stabilizing near $110,000 and Ethereum under $4,000 after a sharp early-November correctioncryptotickerneuralarbtrakinvest. While the crypto market cap remains down ~20% from October highs, trading volumes and technical rebounds signal that liquidity is pausing rather than fleeingneuralarben. Key macro headwinds—persistent high rates, a strong dollar, and uneven global growth—are balanced by ongoing regulatory clarity (notably MiCA in the EU), positive institutional flows, and robust stablecoin activitymarketsmarketsen. The resolution of the US government shutdown and dovish signals from the Fed have supported risk appetite, but caution persistsen. Major tailwinds include sustained adoption in Asia/UAE and the accelerating tokenization of real-world assets, while headwinds center on macro volatility, ETF outflows, and sticky inflation. The coming weeks hinge on central bank pivots, regulatory milestones, and global liquidity dynamics, setting the stage for either renewed upside or extended range-bound trading for BTC, ETH, and DeFi majors.
TL;DR
- BTC consolidates near $110K, ETH below $4K: Both rebounded after early-November correction but face resistance; technicals remain mixedcryptotickerneuralarbtrakinvest.
- Crypto market cap off ~20% from Oct peak: $3.67T as of Nov 10; signals a healthy reset, not capitulationneuralarben.
- Fed signals and US shutdown resolution lift risk assets: Improved sentiment post-shutdown, but future rate path remains keyen.
- Stablecoin inflows and ETF outflows diverge: Suggest capital is waiting for clearer macro signalsen.
- Regulatory clarity (EU MiCA) and US SEC roadmap: Continued progress lowers tail risk for institutional adoptionmarketsmarkets.
- Asia/UAE adoption and RWA tokenization: Structural tailwinds as regional demand and use-cases expandcryptotickermarkets.
- Upcoming catalysts:
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Class | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (USD Index) | +0.5 | +1.1 | +3.0 | ↑DXY = risk-off: weighs on BTC/ETH, especially vs majorscryptotickerneuralarb |
| EURUSD | -0.3 | -0.9 | -2.7 | Weaker EUR: signals relative USD strength, often risk-off for cryptocryptoticker |
| GBPUSD | -0.2 | -0.5 | -1.9 | Similar to above; UK macro caution weighs on GBPcryptoticker |
| USDJPY | +0.8 | +3.2 | +7.0 | JPY weakness = global liquidity risk, EM outflowscryptoticker |
| USDCNY | +0.4 | +1.8 | +3.5 | China growth risks, EM flows; CNY weakness = global risk-offcryptoticker |
| US 2Y Yield | -6bp | -18bp | +9bp | Lower = easier conditions; reversal supports crypto bounceen |
| US 10Y Yield | -9bp | -26bp | +15bp | Backed off highs; lower yields support risk appetite/cryptoen |
| US 2s10s Slope | -3bp | -8bp | +6bp | Still inverted: recession risk persists |
| US Real 10Y | -5bp | -20bp | +10bp | Lower real yields = tailwind for BTC as 'digital gold' |
| EU 10Y Yield | -7bp | -21bp | +8bp | Easing helps EUR assets, risk sentiment |
| UK 10Y Yield | -6bp | -18bp | +11bp | Same; BoE dovishness lifts riskcryptoticker |
| US IG OAS | -1bp | -4bp | +2bp | Stable: no credit stress, supports risk |
| US HY OAS | flat | -8bp | +14bp | Modest widening; risk monitorcryptoticker |
| Euro IG/HY OAS | flat | -3bp | +6bp | No broad credit distress |
| S&P 500 | +1.2 | +3.5 | +7.1 | Equities up = positive wealth effect, supports crypto inflowsmarkets |
| Nasdaq-100 | +1.7 | +4.2 | +9.0 | Tech/AI rally spills over into crypto narrativemarkets |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +4.2 | EU risk recovery, helps global flows |
| FTSE 100 | +0.4 | +1.1 | +2.8 | UK equities lag; limited direct crypto impact |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.0 | +3.7 | +7.5 | Japan risk-on: global liquidity, risk appetitecryptoticker |
| MSCI EM | -0.2 | -1.6 | -4.3 | EM pressured: USD strength, China growth worries |
| Brent/WTI | -1.3 | -6.8 | +5.0 | Lower energy = less inflation, supports risk-assets |
| EU NatGas (TTF) | -2.5 | -9.5 | -6.6 | Lower = reduced tail risk; positive for European crypto flows |
| Gold | +0.9 | +2.3 | +8.1 | Digital gold thesis; positive correlation with BTC when inflation/rates easemarkets |
| Copper | -1.2 | -2.5 | -5.8 | China demand proxy; soft = EM/commodity risk-off |
| VIX | -1.1 | -2.9 | -6.2 | Low vol = risk-on; supports crypto inflowscryptotickermarkets |
| MOVE | -3.4 | -8.7 | -14.5 | Lower rate vol = easier funding, supports DeFi returnscryptoticker |
Sources: cryptotickerneuralarbmarketstrakinvesten, Bloomberg (levels as of Nov 15, 2025 where available)
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI (YoY) | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | +0.1pp | Stickier inflation: slows Fed pivot, keeps USD strong | en |
| US | Core PCE | 30 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | +0.1pp | Core sticky: delays easing, risk-off for crypto | en |
| US | NFP | 1 Nov 2025 | Oct | +158K | +175K | +211K | -17K | Cooling labor: could allow easier Fed policy | en |
| US | ISM PMI | 4 Nov 2025 | Oct | 49.5 | 50.2 | 49.7 | -0.7 | Below 50 = contraction; risk assets cautious | en |
| EU | HICP (YoY) | 7 Nov 2025 | Oct | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | -0.1pp | Disinflation: ECB closer to pause, EUR risk-on | en |
| EU | Core HICP | 7 Nov 2025 | Oct | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | -0.1pp | Core easing: supports risk assets | en |
| EU | Unemployment | 31 Oct 2025 | Sep | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.1pp | Steady labor, ECB cautious | en |
| UK | CPI (YoY) | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | -0.1pp | Eases BoE hawkishness, GBP steady | en |
| UK | Unemployment | 12 Nov 2025 | Sep | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | -0.1pp | Labor cooling supports dovish BoE | en |
| China | CPI (YoY) | 10 Nov 2025 | Oct | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | -0.1pp | Weak demand: CNY risk, EM flows | en |
| China | TSF | 10 Nov 2025 | Oct | ¥3.1T | ¥3.2T | ¥2.6T | -0.1T | Credit impulse bottoming: global liquidity impact | en |
Sources: en, primary statistical releases Nov 2025 where available
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest Value | WoW Change | MoM Change | Crypto Angle Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet (assets) | $7.45T | -$9B | -$37B | Shrinking = mild headwind for risk/crypto | en |
| TGA | $675B | +$22B | +$41B | Higher TGA = less liquidity, but below Q3 highs | en |
| ON RRP | $609B | -$31B | -$98B | Falling RRP = liquidity returning to system, tailwind | en |
| US Net Liquidity Proxy | $6.17T | -$18B | -$94B | Net liquidity flat: explains sideways crypto price action | en |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €7.63T | -€8B | -€30B | QT continues, mild headwind for EUR/crypto | en |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £825B | -£3B | -£12B | Mildly contractionary, limited direct crypto effect | en |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥728T | +¥4T | +¥11T | BoJ easing = global risk tailwind | en |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops | +¥310B | +¥65B | +¥155B | China easing = supports EM/crypto liquidity | en |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (1w) | +$2.1B | Inflows suggest capital on sidelines, bullish if deployed | en | ||
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (1m) | +$6.7B | Sustained growth: positive for on-chain liquidity | en |
Sources: en, public dashboards for stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI) Nov 2025
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec 2025 | EU | Pending | MiCA rules for stablecoins take effect | Major tailwind: clarity, enables institutional flows | marketsmarkets |
| 5 Nov 2025 | US | Proposed | SEC seeks comment on spot ETH ETF approvals | Bullish: signals openness to ETH products | markets |
| 24 Oct 2025 | US | Finalized | IRS updates crypto tax reporting thresholds | Mixed: clarity for compliance, potential headwind | markets |
| 16 Oct 2025 | UK | Passed | FCA launches crypto asset custody framework | Tailwind: institutional adoption, operational clarity | markets |
| 30 Sep 2025 | China | Enforced | PBoC tightens controls on offshore stablecoin flows | Headwind: restricts RMB access, EM liquidity | marketsmarkets |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky Core Inflation | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Delays easing, supports USD, caps crypto upside | encryptoticker |
| Fed/ECB Policy Path | US/EU | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Dovish pivots enable risk-on, crypto inflows | enmarkets |
| Stablecoin Inflows | Global | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | On-chain liquidity, dry powder for rallies | enmarkets |
| ETF Outflows | US | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Signals profit-taking, less passive support | en |
| MiCA Implementation | EU | Tailwind | 5 | 1–3m | Regulatory clarity, enables institutional flows | marketsmarkets |
| China Credit Impulse | China/EM | Headwind | 2 | 2–6w | Weak demand, EM risk-off | encryptoticker |
| BoJ Easing | Japan/Global | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Global liquidity, supports risk assets | en |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (25%)
- Trigger: Dovish Fed/ECB, soft inflation, further stablecoin inflows, MiCA tailwind
- Signposts: US CPI/EU HICP downside surprise, stablecoin net issuance >$3B/wk
- Impact: BTC retests $116–120K, ETH >$4K, majors rally, DeFi TVL expansion
- Historical Analogs: Nov 2021 post-Fed pause; Q1 2024 post-ETF approvalsmarketsmarkets
Scenario 2: Base Case (60%)
- Trigger: Continued sideways macro, muted credit/liquidity, ETF outflows offset by stablecoin inflows
- Signposts: DXY stable, yields rangebound, BTC dominance >55%
- Impact: BTC/ETH range-bound ($104–116K/$3.7–4.1K), majors mixed, DeFi TVL stable
- Historical Analogs: Q3 2023 post-rally consolidationcryptotickerneuralarben
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (15%)
- Trigger: Hot US/EU inflation, hawkish central banks, China credit stress
- Signposts: DXY >108, yields jump, stablecoin outflows
- Impact: BTC falls toward $100K, ETH <$3.7K, alts/DeFi underperform
- Historical Analogs: Mar 2020 liquidity crunch; Jun 2022 macro tighteningcryptotickeren
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov | US CPI (Oct) | US | 0.3% MoM | Inflation surprise = rates/FX swing | en |
| 21 Nov | FOMC Minutes | US | - | Policy bias clue: dovish = risk-on | en |
| 22 Nov | Eurozone PMIs (Nov flash) | EU | 49.8 | Growth/credit pulse: risk sentiment | en |
| 3 Dec | US ISM (Nov) | US | 50.1 | Growth pulse: risk-on/off | en |
| 4 Dec | Fed Chair Speech | US | - | Forward guidance: pivot watch | en |
| 11 Dec | EU MiCA rules in force | EU | - | Major regulatory inflection for stablecoins | marketsmarkets |
| 12 Dec | US PPI (Nov) | US | 0.2% MoM | Input inflation: rates, funding | en |
| 13 Dec | ECB Meeting | EU | Hold | Policy outlook: risk assets | en |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Discrepancies: Where source numbers diverged (e.g., BTC range and total market cap), preference was given to the most recent timestamp and public dashboardsneuralarben.
- Source preference: Primary macro data (BLS, BEA, ECB, ONS, PBoC) was supplemented with top-tier newswires and major crypto analytics dashboards. For regulation, used official agency/gazette releases or direct reporting from WSJ/FT/CoinDesk where primary unavailable. For stablecoin/micro data, referenced public dashboards (e.g., USDT/USDC/DAI official).
- Timeliness: All figures from November 2025; stale (>3m) data excluded unless structural.
All data, levels, and events as of 17 Nov 2025, 06:00 London.