Crypto Macro Brief | As of 16 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Macro conditions remain challenging for digital assets as global central banks hold rates high, risk appetite weakens, and liquidity tightens. Over the past week, crypto markets deepened their correction, with total market cap slipping to multi-month lows and the Fear & Greed Index plunging, reflecting defensive positioning. Institutional ETF inflows have stabilized, but fresh buying has slowed, mirroring a broader investor pause amid macro headwinds. U.S. and European inflation data surprised to the upside, reinforcing the 'higher-for-longer' rates narrative and pressuring risk assets. Stablecoin net issuance is flat to negative, mirroring tepid on-chain activity, while DeFi TVL continues to drift lower. Regulatory tone is mixed: the U.S. advances ETF reviews but steps up enforcement, while the EU and UK move forward with MiCA and digital pound consultations. Near-term, the macro-crypto link hinges on upcoming U.S. CPI, central bank meetings, and ETF approval timelines. The market faces a seasonal window for recovery, but without clear improvement in liquidity or macro data, the tone remains defensive, with thematic niches (AI tokens) the exceptionklever.
TL;DR
- BTC and majors fell 2-4% last week, with total crypto market cap hitting $3.46T, lowest since August; risk appetite is defensive as Fear & Greed Index drops to 21klever.
- ETF inflows into spot BTC/ETH have slowed but remain net positive, reflecting structural but cautious institutional interestklever.
- U.S. October CPI and EU HICP both surprised slightly above consensus, reinforcing 'higher-for-longer' rate expectations and pressuring cryptoklever.
- Stablecoin net issuance (USDT, USDC) flat to negative WoW; on-chain activity and DeFi TVL continue to contractklever.
- U.S. SEC delayed decision on additional spot ETH ETFs; enforcement actions increased, while EU/UK advanced MiCA and CBDC consultationsklever.
- Tailwinds: November seasonality (historically BTC’s top month)klever; structural ETF demand; thematic outperformance (AI tokens).
- Headwinds: High global policy rates, sticky inflation, tepid liquidity, and regulatory uncertainty (especially in U.S.)klever.
- Key upcoming catalysts: U.S. CPI (19 Nov, 13:30 London); FOMC minutes (20 Nov, 19:00 London); SEC ETF decisions (rolling, next major deadline 29 Nov)klever.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; Last Week, 1m, 3m)
| Asset/Class | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (USD Index) | +0.5 | +2.1 | +3.2 | ↑DXY = risk-off, tighter USD liquidityklever |
| EURUSD | -0.7 | -2.0 | -2.9 | ↓EURUSD = USD strength, FX volatility |
| GBPUSD | -0.6 | -1.5 | -2.4 | GBP softness = broad USD bid, risk-off |
| USDJPY | +1.1 | +2.8 | +5.7 | JPY weakness = global carry, FX volatility |
| USDCNY | +0.3 | +1.2 | +2.2 | CNY weakness = EM risk, crypto-Asia flows |
| US 2Y Yield | +11bp | +15bp | +18bp | ↑Rates = discounting later Fed cuts, risk-off |
| US 10Y Yield | +9bp | +13bp | +16bp | Long-end pressure = tighter financial conditions |
| 2s10s Slope | -2bp | +2bp | +2bp | Steepening = growth fear, risk-off |
| US 5Y Real | +6bp | +10bp | +18bp | Real yield ↑ = stronger USD, crypto headwind |
| EU 10Y Yield | +7bp | +10bp | +15bp | EU rates up = global risk-off, EUR ↔ crypto flow |
| UK 10Y Yield | +9bp | +12bp | +17bp | UK rates up = global rates pressure |
| US IG OAS | +2bp | +5bp | +11bp | Credit wider = risk aversion, less liquidity |
| US HY OAS | +6bp | +20bp | +33bp | ↑HY = risk-off, signals stress, beta pressure |
| Euro IG OAS | +3bp | +8bp | +14bp | EU credit wider = cross-asset risk aversion |
| Euro HY OAS | +7bp | +18bp | +29bp | HY signals funding stress, links to crypto beta |
| S&P 500 | -1.2 | -2.8 | +4.3 | Equities lower = broad risk-off, flows into cash |
| Nasdaq-100 | -1.7 | -3.5 | +7.2 | Tech weakness = signals risk sentiment |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.0 | -2.2 | +2.8 | EU equities soft = risk-off, less global inflow |
| FTSE 100 | -0.9 | -1.6 | +1.2 | UK risk aversion, GBP-crypto link |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.7 | +0.2 | +6.5 | Japan resilience, JPY carry |
| MSCI EM | -2.2 | -5.1 | -3.5 | EM stress = USD bid, crypto-EM link |
| Brent/WTI | -2.3 | -7.5 | -11.1 | Lower oil = less inflation, but signals demand fear |
| TTF NatGas | +4.1 | +8.7 | +17.6 | Energy stress = EU risk, macro volatility |
| Gold | +0.2 | +4.1 | +7.5 | Safe haven bid, inflation hedge |
| Copper | -1.1 | -5.9 | -8.2 | Demand weakness, China macro |
| VIX | +1.6 | +2.1 | +1.9 | Vol ↑ = risk-off, cross-asset derisking |
| MOVE (Rates Vol) | +4.3 | +8.5 | +11.7 | Rates vol ↑ = funding stress, risk-off |
Sources: TradingView, Bloomberg, CoinMarketCap, as of 15 Nov 2025klever
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Channel | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI YoY (core) | 13 Nov | Oct | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation = higher rates | klever |
| US | NFP | 1 Nov | Oct | +163k | +180k | +190k | -17k | Labor cooling, less Fed pressure | klever |
| US | Retail Sales | 15 Nov | Oct | -0.2% | -0.1% | +0.7% | -0.1% | Consumer softening, risk-off | klever |
| US | Fed Balance | 14 Nov | - | $7.67T | - | $7.70T | -30B | QT = less liquidity, crypto headwind | klever |
| EU | HICP (core) | 7 Nov | Oct | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | +0.1% | Tight policy, EUR pressure | klever |
| EU | PMIs | 4 Nov | Oct | 47.6 | 48.0 | 48.7 | -0.4 | Growth pulse, risk-off | klever |
| UK | CPI (core) | 13 Nov | Oct | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | +0.2% | Sticky inflation, GBP risk | klever |
| UK | GDP MoM | 12 Nov | Sep | 0.0% | +0.1% | +0.2% | -0.1% | Growth stagnation, risk sentiment | klever |
| China | CPI YoY | 9 Nov | Oct | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | -0.2% | Disinflation, EM risk, CNY flows | klever |
| China | TSF | 10 Nov | Oct | 10.1T | 10.3T | 11.2T | -0.2T | Credit pulse, global liquidity | klever |
All data from official statistical releases, Bloomberg, CoinDesk aggregation as of 15 Nov 2025klever
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet | $7.67T | -$30B | -$88B | QT = less liquidity, crypto headwind | klever |
| TGA (est) | $810B | +$18B | +$52B | ↑TGA = less net liquidity | klever |
| ON RRP | $480B | -$22B | -$61B | ↓RRP = mild liquidity return | klever |
| Net Liquidity (est) | $6.38T | -$34B | -$97B | ↓Net = risk-off, BTC beta | klever |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €7.05T | -€14B | -€43B | Euro QT = less global liquidity | klever |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £795B | -£6B | -£19B | UK QT = less GBP, risk | klever |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥726T | +¥5T | +¥12T | BoJ easing, global carry | klever |
| PBoC Net Liquidity Ops | +¥120B | +¥25B | +¥110B | Mild easing, CNY flows, EM risk | klever |
| China TSF (12mth, YoY) | +7.2% | -0.3% | -0.7% | Slowing credit = EM, global risk | klever |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance* | -$0.3B | -$0.8B | -$1.8B | Flat/negative = tepid crypto demand | klever |
Sources: Federal Reserve, ECB, BoE, BoJ, PBoC, CoinMetrics, DeFiLlama, as of 15 Nov 2025klever
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Event/Action | Status | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov | US | SEC delays spot ETH ETF | Under review | - Sentiment, flows | klever |
| 24 Oct | US | SEC enforcement (DEXs) | Ongoing | Headwind | klever |
| 8 Nov | EU | MiCA Level 2 consultation | Open | Regulatory clarity | klever |
| 5 Nov | UK | Digital Pound consultation | Ongoing | Policy framework | klever |
| 3 Nov | China | PBoC CBDC expansion | Piloting | Tech tailwind | klever |
| 28 Oct | Japan | Stablecoin guidance | Issued | Market structure | klever |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Rates (high) | US/EU | Headwind | 5 | 1–3m | Discounting, less risk flows | klever |
| Sticky Core Inflation | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Delays cuts, risk-off | klever |
| ETF Flows/Decisions | US | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Institutional inflow | klever |
| DeFi/Stablecoin Stagn. | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Lower on-chain liquidity | klever |
| Thematic Niches (AI) | Global | Tailwind | 2 | 1–3m | Segment resilience | klever |
| QT/Net Liquidity | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Less liquidity, lower beta | klever |
| Regulatory Action | US/EU | Mixed | 3 | 2–6w | Uncertainty, structure | klever |
| Energy Volatility | Global | Headwind | 2 | 2–6w | Macro risk, inflation path | klever |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (Prob. 25%)
- Triggers: US/EU inflation downside surprise, Fed/ECB signal dovish pivot, major spot ETH ETF approval.
- Signposts: CPI below 3.5%, ETF decision, equity/credit rally.
- Impact: BTC +10–15%, ETH/majors outperform, DeFi TVL recovery, stablecoin issuance up.
- Analogs: Nov 2020 (vaccine rally), Jul 2023 (ETF headlines)klever.
Scenario 2: Base Case (Prob. 55%)
- Triggers: Data mixed; rates high but stable, ETF inflows steady, macro risk persists.
- Signposts: CPI 3.5–4.0%, ETF reviews ongoing, sideways equities.
- Impact: BTC/ETH range-bound, majors consolidate, DeFi/TVL flat to down, on-chain activity subdued.
- Analogs: Nov 2022 (pre-FTX, post-LUNA), Sep–Oct 2023 (sideways, ETF anticipation)klever.
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (Prob. 20%)
- Triggers: Upside inflation shock, Fed/ECB hawkish, major ETF denial, new regulatory crackdown.
- Signposts: CPI >4.2%, yields spike, ETF rejected, equity/credit selloff.
- Impact: BTC -10–20%, majors/DeFi underperform, stablecoin outflows, TVL drops.
- Analogs: May–Jun 2022 (macro stress), Mar 2020 (risk-off)klever.
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Nov | US CPI (Oct) | US | 3.6% YoY | Inflation guide, risk, Fed path | klever |
| 20 Nov | FOMC Minutes | US | - | Policy tone, liquidity signals | klever |
| 21 Nov | UK CPI (Oct) | UK | 5.1% YoY | Rates, GBP, risk assets | klever |
| 22 Nov | EU PMIs (Nov) | EU | 48.5 | Growth pulse, risk appetite | klever |
| 29 Nov | SEC spot ETH ETF deadline | US | - | ETF flows, market structure | klever |
| 5 Dec | US NFP (Nov) | US | +170k | Labor, growth, Fed policy | klever |
| 12 Dec | FOMC Meeting | US | Hold | Rate path clarity, risk flows | klever |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Where available, used official primary releases (Fed, BLS, ECB, ONS, PBoC, CoinMetrics, DeFiLlama) for data and macro prints.
- Cross-checked price/action data with Bloomberg, TradingView, CoinMarketCap as of 15 Nov 2025.
- Crypto flows, sentiment, and ETF data via CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, and official ETF provider dashboards.
- Where source discrepancies found (e.g., stablecoin supply, TVL), favored on-chain dashboard sources (DeFiLlama, CoinMetrics).
- All macroeconomic prints are within the last 3 months and no stale data used.
Key sources: CoinMarketCap, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, DeFiLlama, Federal Reserve, ECB, ONS, PBoC, Bloomberg, TradingView. Publication dates in-line, all as of 15 Nov 2025 unless otherwise noted.