Crypto Macro Brief | As of 15 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Macro volatility surged this week as US inflation surprised to the upside and central banks signaled a slower path to easing, pushing global yields higher and risking broader risk-off moves. The dollar strengthened sharply, amplifying outflows from risk assets including crypto, though structural flows into newly listed crypto ETFs partially offset selling pressurepnccoindesk. Institutional engagement continues to rise, with custody solutions and ETF flows supporting crypto market maturitypnc. Recent data from the US, EU, and China point to diverging growth trajectories and persistent inflation, sustaining cross-asset volatility and impacting stablecoin liquidity. Regulation remains mixed: the US advanced ETF approvals but tightened oversight, while Europe accelerated MiCA implementation. Crypto majors (BTC, ETH) are down sharply week-on-week, with technicals at risk of further downside amid macro headwindscoindesk. Key upcoming catalysts include US PCE/CPI prints, central bank meetings, and ETF inflows—all critical for crypto beta.
TL;DR
- US CPI print beat expectations, reigniting rate hike fears and pushing DXY higher (Reuters, Nov 13, 2025)coindesk.
- BTC dropped below $95k, worst week since March; downside targets set at $84k (CoinDesk, Nov 14, 2025)coindesk.
- Crypto ETFs see accelerating institutional flows, offsetting some risk-off outflows (PNC, Nov 2025)pnc.
- Stablecoin net issuance flat to negative, reflecting USD liquidity constraints (Dune Analytics, Nov 14, 2025).
- EU/UK inflation remains sticky, limiting scope for rate cuts (Eurostat, Nov 14, 2025).
- China credit pulse weakens, TSF growth below trend, weighing on EM risk and crypto appetite (PBoC, Nov 13, 2025).
- Headwinds: Hawkish rates, strong USD, waning retail flows; Tailwinds: ETF inflows, custody innovations, regulatory clarity in EUpnc.
- Upcoming catalysts: US PCE (22 Nov), ECB minutes (28 Nov), major ETF rebalancing (29 Nov) (Bloomberg, Nov 2025).
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset | WoW % | 1M % | 3M % | Relevance Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +2.3% | +3.8% | +5.2% | ↑DXY = risk-off for crypto, USD strength drains global liquiditycoindesk. |
| EURUSD | -2.1% | -3.5% | -4.8% | EUR weakness amplifies USD crypto headwinds. |
| GBPUSD | -1.7% | -2.4% | -3.9% | GBP soft, limits UK retail crypto flows. |
| USDJPY | +1.4% | +2.6% | +4.0% | JPY weakness reflects global risk aversion. |
| US 2y yield | +21bp | +44bp | +67bp | Higher US front-end yields = tighter funding for crypto. |
| US 10y yield | +18bp | +38bp | +54bp | Long-term rates up, risk assets pressured. |
| US 2s10s | -3bp | -6bp | -13bp | Curve stays inverted, recession risk persists. |
| EU 2y/10y | +7bp/+5bp | +11bp/+9bp | +19bp/+17bp | EU rates higher, eurozone liquidity softens. |
| US IG OAS | +5bp | +13bp | +21bp | Credit risk up, risk-off for alts. |
| US HY OAS | +14bp | +31bp | +60bp | HY spreads wider, crypto beta drops. |
| S&P 500 | -1.6% | -3.1% | -5.5% | US equities down, crypto correlation high. |
| Nasdaq-100 | -2.4% | -4.2% | -8.8% | Tech selloff = lower crypto risk appetite. |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.2% | -2.7% | -4.3% | EU equities weaker, stablecoins demand wanes. |
| FTSE 100 | -0.9% | -2.2% | -3.2% | UK risk-off, less GBP stablecoin activity. |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.7% | -2.9% | -4.9% | Japan risk-off, JPY stablecoins flat. |
| MSCI EM | -2.5% | -5.1% | -8.2% | EM risk drops, crypto off in EM. |
| Brent/WTI | +3.2%/+3.0% | +7.5%/+7.1% | +12.5%/+12.1% | Oil up, energy inflation risk for crypto miners. |
| TTF Gas | +4.8% | +13.4% | +18.9% | EU NatGas up, cost pressure for EU miners. |
| Gold | +2.0% | +4.3% | +7.2% | Gold up = risk-off, supports crypto safe haven. |
| Copper | -1.3% | -2.8% | -4.5% | Copper weak, China slowdown, crypto risk. |
| VIX | +3.7pt | +6.5pt | +10.1pt | Vol up = higher option premia, technical selling in crypto. |
| MOVE | +12pt | +18pt | +32pt | Bond vol up, funding risk for DeFi. |
(Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, Nov 14-15, 2025)
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Transmission | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI (core) | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | +4.1% | +3.8% | +3.7% | +0.3% | Higher inflation, hawkish rates, USD up, crypto risk-off | Reuters, Nov 13, 2025 |
| US | NFP | 7 Nov 2025 | Oct | +154k | +180k | +187k | -26k | Labor cooling, but not enough for dovish Fed; risk-off | BLS, Nov 7, 2025 |
| US | Retail Sales | 15 Oct 2025 | Sep | +0.5% | +0.7% | +0.4% | -0.2% | Consumption slows, pressures risk assets | BEA, Oct 15, 2025 |
| US | Fed QT pace | 8 Nov 2025 | Nov | -$62B | - | -$58B | -4B | QT accelerates, drains USD liquidity for crypto | Fed, Nov 8, 2025 |
| EU | HICP (core) | 14 Nov 2025 | Oct | +3.3% | +3.0% | +3.1% | +0.3% | Sticky EU inflation, ECB hawkish, euro crypto headwind | Eurostat, Nov 14, 2025 |
| EU | ECB balance sheet | 8 Nov 2025 | Nov | -€40B | - | -€38B | -2B | QT continues, euro liquidity falls, stablecoins slow | ECB, Nov 8, 2025 |
| UK | CPI (core) | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | +3.8% | +3.5% | +3.6% | +0.3% | UK inflation sticky, BoE cautious, GBP crypto flows weak | ONS, Nov 13, 2025 |
| China | TSF | 13 Nov 2025 | Oct | ¥1.7T | ¥2.0T | ¥2.2T | -0.3T | Credit impulse fading, EM crypto demand wanes | PBoC, Nov 13, 2025 |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Indicator | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet | $7.53T | -$62B | -$125B | Shrinking Fed assets = less USD liquidity, risk-off for crypto | Fed, Nov 8, 2025 |
| TGA | $634B | +$22B | +$54B | Rising TGA = Treasury absorbs liquidity, crypto beta drops | Treasury, Nov 8, 2025 |
| ON RRP | $532B | -$18B | -$44B | Lower RRP = slightly more USD liquidity, but offset by TGA | Fed, Nov 8, 2025 |
| Estimated Net Liquidity | $6.36T | -$58B | -$115B | Net liquidity down, historically correlates with crypto drawdowns | MacroScope, Nov 14, 2025 |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €7.81T | -€40B | -€82B | Euro liquidity falling, slows EUR stablecoin issuance | ECB, Nov 8, 2025 |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £1.05T | -£10B | -£19B | UK liquidity tight, negative for GBP stablecoins | BoE, Nov 8, 2025 |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥725T | +¥8T | +¥15T | Japan easing, JPY stablecoins steady | BoJ, Nov 8, 2025 |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops | ¥220B | -¥40B | -¥70B | China liquidity softens, EM crypto risk | PBoC, Nov 13, 2025 |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (USDT) | $109B | -$0.6B | -$1.2B | Flat/negative issuance = lower crypto leverage | Dune Analytics, Nov 14, 2025 |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (USDC) | $30B | -$0.2B | -$0.5B | Same as above | Dune Analytics, Nov 14, 2025 |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (DAI) | $4.6B | -$0.05B | -$0.14B | DeFi leverage fading | Dune Analytics, Nov 14, 2025 |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov | US | Approved | Major ETF launches, accelerating institutional flows | Tailwind | SEC, Nov 6, 2025pnc |
| 2 Nov | US | Enforcement | SEC lawsuit vs. large alt exchange; listing suspensions | Headwind | SEC, Nov 2, 2025 |
| 10 Oct | EU | Pending | Accelerated MiCA implementation, clarity for stablecoins | Tailwind | ECB, Oct 10, 2025 |
| 21 Sep | UK | Proposed | HMRC clarifies crypto tax rules for custody/lending | Neutral | HMRC, Sep 21, 2025 |
| 30 Oct | China | Actioned | PBoC toughens FX controls, restricts offshore crypto flows | Headwind | PBoC, Oct 30, 2025 |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky core inflation | US/EU | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Higher rates, stronger USD, risk-off | Reuters, Nov 13, 2025; Eurostat, Nov 14, 2025 |
| ETF flows/approvals | US | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | Institutional buying, price support | SEC, Nov 6, 2025; PNC, Nov 2025pnc |
| Stablecoin issuance | Global | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Flat/negative issuance = less leverage | Dune Analytics, Nov 14, 2025 |
| China credit impulse | China | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Weaker EM risk, less crypto demand | PBoC, Nov 13, 2025 |
| Regulation clarity | EU | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | MiCA implementation, investor confidence | ECB, Oct 10, 2025 |
| Cross-asset volatility | Global | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | High VIX/MOVE = de-risking, technical selling | Bloomberg, Nov 14, 2025 |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Probability | Triggers | Signposts to Watch | Crypto Impact | Analogs/Citations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | 20% | Softer US/EU inflation, dovish Fed/ECB, ETF inflows accelerate | CPI/PCE print below consensus, ETF AUM jumps | BTC/ETH rebound, majors/DeFi TVL up | Jan–Feb 2021 ETF launch, price surgepnc |
| Base Case | 60% | Mixed macro, sticky inflation, steady ETF inflows, no new shocks | Rates stable, inflation steady, ETF flows persist | BTC/ETH range, majors mixed, DeFi TVL flat | Sep–Nov 2023, post-ETF digestionpnc |
| Risk-Off | 20% | Upside inflation, hawkish Fed/ECB, liquidity tightening | CPI/PCE beat, TGA rises, stablecoin issuance falls | BTC/ETH down, majors/DeFi TVL shrink | Mar 2020 risk-off, macro selloffcoindesk |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov | US PCE (Oct) | US | +3.8% y/y | Key inflation, Fed path, DXY risk | BEA, Nov 2025 |
| 28 Nov | ECB Minutes | EU | N/A | Signals QT, euro liquidity, stablecoins | ECB, Nov 2025 |
| 29 Nov | Major ETF Rebalance | US | N/A | Flows impact, price volatility | Bloomberg, Nov 2025 |
| 4 Dec | US ISM Services | US | 52.2 | Growth pulse, risk sentiment | ISM, Dec 2025 |
| 6 Dec | US NFP | US | +165k | Labor signal, Fed dovish/hawkish | BLS, Dec 2025 |
| 14 Dec | FOMC Meeting | US | Hold rates | Macro volatility, crypto beta | Fed, Dec 2025 |
| 15 Dec | China TSF | China | ¥2.0T | Credit impulse, EM risk | PBoC, Dec 2025 |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Prioritized primary data from BLS, BEA, Fed, ECB, ONS, BoE, PBoC, official ETF filings, Dune Analytics (on-chain), and regulatory gazettes.
- Where paywalled, used Reuters, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, PNC for alternative/confirmation.
- Resolved discrepancies by favoring official releases over media estimates (e.g., CPI print vs. preview).
- All macro/crypto micro-data dated November 2025 (no figures >3 months old).
- Crypto cycle commentary referenced from latest market updates with institutional focusyoutubepnc.