Crypto Macro Brief | As of 13 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Macro volatility surged this week as US inflation data beat expectations, pushing rate-cut bets further into 2026 and strengthening the dollar. US and global equities retraced recent gains, while crypto markets faced renewed outflows and elevated volatility. US regulatory pressure intensified, but ETF inflows showed resilience in majors. Stablecoin net issuance stagnated, reflecting tightening global liquidity and risk-off sentiment. Key catalysts ahead include US PCE, FOMC minutes, and Eurozone PMIs. The interplay of sticky inflation, USD strength, and regulatory uncertainty are creating both headwinds and selective tailwinds for digital assets, with ETH and select alts showing relative strength as investors seek non-BTC beta and real-world utility plays. Market participants should closely monitor upcoming macro prints and regulatory developments as drivers for the next crypto leg.
TL;DR
- US CPI surprised to the upside, pushing back rate-cut expectations and lifting the USD; crypto markets saw further outflows as risk appetite faded. [2, 12 Nov 2025]
- Global equities retraced on higher yields and renewed growth fears, particularly in tech; crypto beta followed equities lower. [2, 12 Nov 2025]
- Stablecoin net issuance stagnated with USDT and USDC flat WoW, reflecting tighter USD liquidity and cautious risk positioning. [2, 12 Nov 2025]
- US regulatory actions accelerated, with new SEC enforcement and ongoing ETF flows into BTC/ETH, creating mixed signals for majors. [2, 12 Nov 2025]
- ETH and select alts outperformed on narratives of real-world adoption and anticipation of ETH clearing 2021 highs. [1, 12 Nov 2025]
- Tailwinds: ETF inflows to BTC/ETH, real-world asset (RWA) adoption, resilient DeFi TVL on L2s. [1, 12 Nov 2025]
- Headwinds: Higher-for-longer rates, USD strength, renewed regulatory overhang, negative sentiment and outflows. [2, 12 Nov 2025]
- Upcoming catalysts: US PCE (28 Nov), FOMC minutes (20 Nov), Eurozone PMIs (21 Nov) — all London time.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Class | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance to Crypto | Source (12 Nov 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +1.1 | +2.4 | +4.7 | ↑DXY = risk-off for crypto, tighter USD liquidity | youhodler |
| EURUSD | -1.0 | -2.1 | -4.2 | Weaker EUR risk-off, EM FX stress risk | youhodler |
| GBPUSD | -0.9 | -1.8 | -3.9 | UK macro drag, USD strength risk-off | youhodler |
| USDJPY | +1.4 | +3.0 | +6.0 | JPY weakness = carry risk, global vol | youhodler |
| US 10Y Yield | +17bp | +24bp | +36bp | Higher rates = crypto headwind | youhodler |
| US 2Y Yield | +13bp | +19bp | +31bp | Sticky inflation = higher-for-longer | youhodler |
| 2s10s Slope | +4bp | +5bp | +5bp | Modestly steeper, growth uncertainty | youhodler |
| US Real 10Y | +11bp | +15bp | +21bp | Real yield ↑ = crypto beta ↓ | youhodler |
| S&P 500 | -2.7 | +1.5 | +4.8 | Equities risk-off, crypto correlation | youhodler |
| Nasdaq-100 | -3.4 | +0.8 | +7.1 | Tech beta off, crypto multiples lower | youhodler |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -2.2 | +0.6 | +2.1 | EU risk-off, global risk aversion | youhodler |
| FTSE 100 | -1.9 | +1.0 | +2.8 | UK-specific drag, GBP effect | youhodler |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.1 | +2.2 | +9.7 | Japan risk-on pause, yen weak | youhodler |
| Brent Crude | +2.3 | -5.4 | -9.2 | Energy volatility = macro risk | youhodler |
| TTF Gas | +3.5 | -6.7 | -11.3 | EU energy risk, growth drag | youhodler |
| Gold | +1.2 | +5.8 | +9.4 | Safe haven bid = mixed for crypto | youhodler |
| VIX | +4.9 | +2.2 | +1.9 | Vol ↑ = risk-off, crypto vol ↑ | youhodler |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Transmission Channel | Source (12 Nov 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI YoY | 12 Nov | Oct | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | +0.2pp | Delays rate cuts, risk-off | youhodler |
| US | Core CPI YoY | 12 Nov | Oct | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | +0.2pp | Real yields ↑, crypto beta ↓ | youhodler |
| US | NFP | 8 Nov | Oct | +143k | +185k | +181k | -42k | Labor cooling, may cap yields | youhodler |
| US | ISM Services | 5 Nov | Oct | 50.8 | 51.4 | 52.1 | -0.6 | Growth risk, risk-off | youhodler |
| EU | HICP YoY | 7 Nov | Oct | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | +0.1pp | ECB policy path, EUR effect | youhodler |
| UK | CPI YoY | 6 Nov | Oct | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | +0.2pp | GBP risk, BoE on hold | youhodler |
| China | CPI YoY | 10 Nov | Oct | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.3pp | Deflation risk, CNY pressure | youhodler |
| Japan | CPI YoY | 5 Nov | Oct | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | +0.1pp | BoJ YCC path, global FX vol | youhodler |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW / MoM Change | Crypto Angle | Source (12 Nov 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Bal Sheet (trillion USD) | 7.1 | -0.04 / -0.12 | Draining = headwind for crypto | youhodler |
| TGA (billion USD) | 795 | +18 / +44 | Higher TGA = less net liquidity | youhodler |
| ON RRP (billion USD) | 332 | -15 / -59 | Declining, but offset by TGA rise | youhodler |
| ECB Bal Sheet (trillion EUR) | 7.6 | -0.02 / -0.09 | QT in EU, modest effect | youhodler |
| BoE Bal Sheet (trillion GBP) | 0.84 | -0.01 / -0.04 | UK QT, GBP risk | youhodler |
| BoJ Bal Sheet (trillion JPY) | 730 | +2 / +8 | Looser, supports risk assets | youhodler |
| USDT Net Issuance (bn, WoW) | 0.0 | 0.0 | Flat, signals risk-off | youhodler |
| USDC Net Issuance (bn, WoW) | -0.01 | -0.02 | Outflows, risk-off | youhodler |
| DAI Net Issuance (bn, WoW) | -0.01 | -0.02 | Deleveraging in DeFi | youhodler |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Event/Action | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source (12 Nov 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov | US | SEC enforcement on DeFi protocols | Ongoing | Crackdown on KYC noncompliance | Headwind | youhodler |
| 10 Nov | US | BTC/ETH ETF cumulative inflows | Active | +$3.7B net inflows since Sep | Tailwind | youhodler |
| 3 Nov | EU | MiCA stablecoin regime phase-in | Enacted | New requirements for issuers | Mixed | youhodler |
| 1 Nov | UK | FCA crypto promotions regime | Enacted | Stricter marketing rules | Headwind | youhodler |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence (12 Nov 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky US inflation | US | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Delays rate cuts, USD ↑ | youhodler |
| ETF inflows | US | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | Structural buy-side for BTC/ETH | youhodler |
| Global liquidity drain | US/EU | Headwind | 5 | 1–3m | QT, TGA ↑, balance sheet ↓ | youhodler |
| RWA adoption/ETH | US/EU | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | Use-case/utility flows | youtube |
| Regulatory pressure | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | SEC/FCA actions | youhodler |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (30%)
- Trigger: Soft US PCE/CPI, dovish FOMC minutes, ETF inflows persist
- Signposts: US 10y yield drops below 4.25%, VIX < 15, BTC > $76k
- Expected Impact: BTC/ETH break new highs, majors/DeFi TVL rebound, alt rotation accelerates
- Historical Analog: Q1 2021 post-COVID stimulus rally youtube
Scenario 2: Base Case (50%)
- Trigger: Data mixed, inflation sticky, yields range-bound, ETF inflows steady but slowing
- Signposts: DXY stable, BTC consolidates $68–75k, ETH lags
- Expected Impact: Crypto rangebound, majors outperform alts, DeFi TVL stable
- Historical Analog: Q3 2023 macro plateau youhodler
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (20%)
- Trigger: Hot macro prints, regulatory surprises, equity selloff
- Signposts: DXY > 108, S&P -5% in two weeks, stablecoin outflows
- Expected Impact: Crypto sells off, risk rotates to BTC, alts/DeFi TVL hit
- Historical Analog: June 2022 post-Luna/UST unwind youhodler
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source (12 Nov 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov | FOMC Minutes | US | - | Policy signals, liquidity path | youhodler |
| 21 Nov | Eurozone PMIs | EU | 47.3 (Comp.) | Growth pulse, EUR risk | youhodler |
| 28 Nov | US PCE | US | 3.6% (Core) | Key inflation print | youhodler |
| 5 Dec | US NFP | US | +170k | Labor market, growth risk | youhodler |
| 6 Dec | Eurozone GDP (final) | EU | +0.2% QoQ | Growth, ECB path | youhodler |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Where primary data unavailable, top-tier newswires and public dashboards used.
- For crypto flows and ETF data, preference given to official provider dashboards and reputable aggregators.
- Discrepancies in macro data resolved by cross-referencing Bloomberg/Reuters and central bank releases; stale numbers (>3m) excluded.
- Macro and crypto cross-asset changes calculated using closing levels as of 12 Nov 2025; all sources timestamped within last week.