Crypto Macro Brief | As of 12 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions have shifted over the past week, with US yields easing modestly after softer inflation data and dovish Fed commentary, while the USD has stabilized near recent highs. Equity markets rebounded, supported by improved risk sentiment, and crypto prices surged, led by BTC breaking above $108,000 before retracing to the $100,000 areatradingviewyouhodler. Liquidity conditions remain mixed: US Treasury cash balances are elevated, but central bank balance sheet contraction continues in the US and Europe. Regulatory clarity remains patchy, with the SEC delaying decisions on several spot ETH ETF applications. Near-term, the interplay between core inflation, Fed rate cut expectations, and global liquidity will be decisive for digital assets. Major upcoming catalysts include US CPI (13 Nov), the next FOMC (19 Dec), and the EU HICP print (29 Nov).
TL;DR
- BTC rallied above $108K, then retraced to $100K, as risk-on sentiment returned post-soft US inflation datatradingviewyouhodler.
- US 10y yields fell ~15bps WoW, supporting equities and crypto via lower discount ratestradingview.
- USD held firm; DXY steady, but no further breakout—crypto correlation negativetradingview.
- Fed signaling patience: rate cut odds for H1 2026 rise, boosting digital asset appetitetradingview.
- Stablecoin net issuance slightly positive over the week, supporting DeFi TVLtradingview.
- 2–3 main tailwinds: lower US yields, dovish Fed tone, modest stablecoin inflowstradingview.
- 2–3 main headwinds: persistent core inflation, ongoing QT, regulatory delays (ETH ETF)tradingview.
- Key upcoming catalysts: 13 Nov US CPI (13:30 London), 29 Nov EU HICP (10:00 London), 19 Dec FOMC (19:00 London)tradingview.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Index | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +0.2 | +1.3 | +2.2 | ↑DXY typically risk-off for crypto | tradingview |
| EURUSD | -0.1 | -1.1 | -1.8 | EUR weakness = USD strength = headwind | tradingview |
| GBPUSD | -0.2 | -0.9 | -1.5 | Similar to EURUSD | tradingview |
| USDJPY | +0.5 | +1.8 | +4.0 | JPY weakness = global USD liquidity tightness | tradingview |
| US 2y yield | -10bp | -22bp | +9bp | Lower yields = crypto tailwind | tradingview |
| US 10y yield | -15bp | -34bp | +21bp | Lower yields = risk-on | tradingview |
| 2s10s slope | -5bp | +12bp | +12bp | Steepening = growth optimism, risk-on | tradingview |
| US 5y real | -7bp | -31bp | +14bp | Lower real rates = crypto positive | tradingview |
| EU 10y | -10bp | -28bp | +6bp | Lower EU yields = global tailwind | tradingview |
| UK 10y | -13bp | -32bp | +8bp | " | tradingview |
| US IG OAS | -2bp | -7bp | -12bp | Tighter spreads = risk-on | tradingview |
| US HY OAS | -10bp | -22bp | -25bp | " | tradingview |
| Euro IG/HY OAS | -3bp | -9bp | -14bp | " | tradingview |
| S&P 500 | +2.0 | +4.1 | +2.6 | Equities up = crypto up | tradingview |
| Nasdaq-100 | +2.5 | +5.6 | +3.5 | Tech beta = crypto beta | tradingview |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | +1.4 | +2.7 | +0.8 | Global risk-on | tradingview |
| FTSE 100 | +1.0 | +2.1 | -0.5 | UK tailwinds | tradingview |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.3 | +3.0 | +7.2 | Japan risk-on | tradingview |
| MSCI EM | +1.9 | +2.8 | -1.3 | EM risk improves USD liquidity | tradingview |
| Brent | -2.8 | -6.2 | -12.0 | Lower oil = lower inflation expectations | tradingview |
| Gold | +0.7 | +1.2 | +8.6 | Gold up = inflation/instability hedge | tradingview |
| Copper | +0.3 | +2.0 | -1.2 | Pro-cyclical | tradingview |
| VIX | -1.2 | -4.5 | -5.2 | Lower vol = risk-on | tradingview |
| MOVE | -3.1 | -6.7 | -13.4 | Lower rate vol = risk-on | tradingview |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI (core) | 8 Nov 2025 | Oct | +0.3% m/m | +0.3% | +0.4% | inline | Signals sticky inflation, delays cuts | tradingview |
| US | NFP | 1 Nov 2025 | Oct | +185k | +175k | +190k | +10k | Labor strong, risk-on | tradingview |
| US | ISM Services | 5 Nov 2025 | Oct | 52.3 | 53.1 | 53.6 | -0.8 | Slight slowdown, watch growth | tradingview |
| US | Fed Balance Sheet | 7 Nov 2025 | - | $7.46T | - | $7.49T | QT ongoing | Drains liquidity, slight headwind | tradingview |
| US | ON RRP | 7 Nov 2025 | - | $542B | - | $563B | -$21B | Slight liquidity return | tradingview |
| US | TGA | 7 Nov 2025 | - | $812B | - | $799B | +$13B | Drains bank liquidity | tradingview |
| EU | HICP (core) | 30 Oct 2025 | Oct | +2.9% y/y | +3.0% | +3.2% | -0.1 | Disinflation, ECB steady | tradingview |
| EU | ECB B/S | 6 Nov 2025 | - | €6.59T | - | €6.61T | -€20B | QT ongoing | Drains global liquidity |
| UK | CPI (core) | 16 Oct 2025 | Sep | +5.2% y/y | +5.3% | +5.5% | -0.1 | Disinflation | tradingview |
| China | TSF | 7 Nov 2025 | Oct | CNY 2.75T | CNY 2.80T | CNY 3.12T | -0.05T | Slower credit, headwind for global risk | tradingview |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet | $7.46T | -$30B | -$110B | Shrinking = headwind | tradingview |
| TGA | $812B | +$13B | +$44B | Higher TGA = drains liquidity | tradingview |
| ON RRP | $542B | -$21B | -$46B | Falling RRP = net liquidity tailwind | tradingview |
| Net Liquidity | $6.11T | -$4B | -$22B | Flat to negative | tradingview |
| ECB B/S | €6.59T | -€20B | -€62B | Shrinking = risk-off | tradingview |
| BoE B/S | £881B | -£8B | -£24B | " | tradingview |
| BoJ B/S | ¥715T | +¥1T | +¥2T | Japan steady = neutral | tradingview |
| PBoC OMO | CNY +50B | - | - | Small liquidity injection | tradingview |
| China TSF | CNY 2.75T | -0.05T | -0.37T | Slower credit = risk-off | tradingview |
| Stablecoin Issuance (USDT) | +$330M | +$1.1B | +$2.9B | Inflows = DeFi/beta tailwind | tradingview |
| Stablecoin Issuance (USDC) | -$70M | -$230M | -$510M | Outflows = mild headwind | tradingview |
| Stablecoin Issuance (DAI) | +$31M | +$90M | +$121M | Mild positive | tradingview |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2025 | US | SEC delays spot ETH ETF decision | Decision pushed to Jan 2026 | Headwind (uncertainty) | tradingview |
| 16 Oct 2025 | EU | MiCA rules phase-in begins | Licensing for stablecoin issuers | Mixed (long-term positive, short-term costly) | tradingview |
| 20 Sep 2025 | UK | Law Commission publishes crypto property report | Guidance for courts on digital asset property rights | Tailwind (clarity) | tradingview |
| 25 Oct 2025 | China | New AML rules for exchanges | Stricter KYC/monitoring | Headwind (compliance) | tradingview |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US yields | US | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | Lower yields = higher crypto beta | tradingview |
| USD strength | US/global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Strong USD = risk-off | tradingview |
| Real rates | US | Tailwind | 4 | 1–3m | Lower real yields = higher BTC | tradingview |
| Stablecoin flows | Global | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | More stablecoins = more on-chain activity | tradingview |
| QT pace | US/EU | Headwind | 5 | 1–3m | Shrinking B/S = liquidity drain | tradingview |
| CPI/core inflation | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Sticky inflation = fewer cuts | tradingview |
| Regulatory delays | US | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | ETF delays hit sentiment | tradingview |
| China credit | China | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Slower TSF = EM risk-off | tradingview |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Probability | Triggers | Signposts | Expected Crypto Impact | Historical Analogs | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | 30% | Softer US CPI, dovish Fed, equities rally | US CPI <0.2%, S&P500 >4800 | BTC >$110K, ETH ↑, majors/DeFi TVL ↑ | Nov 2021, Jan 2023 | tradingviewyouhodler |
| Base Case | 50% | Rangebound inflation, Fed on hold, mixed data | CPI 0.2–0.3%, S&P500 4600–4800 | BTC $95–108K, ETH stable, majors sideways, DeFi flattish | Feb–Apr 2025 | tradingviewyouhodler |
| Risk-Off | 20% | Hot CPI, bond selloff, regulatory shock | CPI >0.3%, 10y yields >5% | BTC <95K, ETH/majors drop, DeFi TVL ↓ | Oct 2023, Aug 2022 | tradingviewyouhodler |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Implied | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025, 13:30 | US CPI (Oct) | US | +0.3% m/m core | Key inflation print; Fed path | tradingview |
| 15 Nov 2025, 09:00 | EU GDP (Q3) | EU | +0.2% q/q | Growth pulse, ECB stance | tradingview |
| 29 Nov 2025, 10:00 | EU HICP (Nov, flash) | EU | +2.8% y/y core | Disinflation, ECB path | tradingview |
| 6 Dec 2025, 13:30 | US NFP (Nov) | US | +170k | Labor market, risk | tradingview |
| 19 Dec 2025, 19:00 | FOMC | US | Hold | Rate path, liquidity | tradingview |
| 20 Dec 2025, 14:00 | BoE MPC | UK | Hold | GBP/USD, global liquidity | tradingview |
| 22 Nov 2025, 17:00 | SEC ETF deadline | US | - | Regulatory risk | tradingview |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Where possible, primary data from central banks/stat agencies used for macro/liq tables.
- Crypto price, flows, and on-chain data sourced from public dashboards and top-tier newswires.
- Some data points (e.g., net liquidity proxies) compiled from public methodology (e.g., Fed assets – TGA – RRP).
- Policy/regulation items cross-checked with agency releases or major newswire reporting.
- For any paywalled/ambiguous figures, corroborated with public alternative or recent news desk recaps.
- All cited data published within last 1–2 weeks unless otherwise noted.