Crypto Macro Brief | As of 11 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Recent macro data and policy signals underscore a mixed environment for digital assets, with cross-asset volatility persisting following last week’s US CPI and global central bank communications. US real yields remain elevated, and the dollar’s strength has moderated but not reversed, sustaining a cautious tone for crypto beta. Bitcoin’s relief rally has stalled, with year-end record highs now widely seen as unlikely, as risk appetite is constrained by sticky core inflation and uncertain Fed policymorningstar. Stablecoin flows and DeFi TVL show tepid growth, reflecting muted liquidity conditions. Regulatory noise remains significant, with ETF approval flows in the US and new MiCA implementation steps in the EU. Looking ahead, key catalysts include US CPI (13 Nov), the final ECB meeting of the year (14 Dec), and year-end funding dynamics. Macro-crypto transmission remains tightly linked to USD liquidity, real yields, and regulatory news flow.
TL;DR
- US CPI miss (headline +0.4% m/m, core sticky) reinforced higher-for-longer real yields, capping crypto upsidemorningstar.
- DXY eased marginally (↓0.6% WoW) but remains risk-off for crypto; no decisive FX inflection yetmorningstar.
- Bitcoin failed to break $75k; rally stalled on macro headwinds and ETF inflow fatiguemorningstar.
- Stablecoin net issuance flat; DeFi TVL up <2% WoW, reflecting low risk appetite.
- US, EU, UK regulators signaled ongoing scrutiny; no major enforcement but MiCA implementation steps in EU.
- Tailwinds: USD easing (if DXY breaks lower), ETF inflows on risk-on data, China policy easing.
- Headwinds: Sticky core inflation, high real yields, global regulatory uncertaintymorningstar.
- Upcoming catalysts: US CPI (13 Nov), ECB meeting (14 Dec), Fed dot plot (18 Dec); all London time.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset / Index | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance to Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | -0.6 | +1.2 | +4.5 | ↑DXY = risk-off for crypto; modest relief WoW |
| EURUSD | +0.5 | -1.0 | -3.8 | EUR firming = mild crypto tailwind |
| GBPUSD | +0.3 | -0.8 | -2.2 | GBP stabilizing = neutral for crypto |
| USDJPY | +0.1 | +2.4 | +7.5 | Yen weakness = global risk drag |
| USDCNY | -0.2 | -1.1 | +1.7 | CNY stability = crypto neutral |
| US 2y yield | +5bp | +17bp | +49bp | Higher = risk-off, funding tighter |
| US 10y yield | -2bp | +23bp | +61bp | Long end sticky = macro risk |
| 2s10s slope | -7bp | +6bp | +12bp | Curve steepening = recession fear fade |
| US 5y real | +3bp | +12bp | +34bp | Real yields high = crypto headwind |
| US 10y real | +2bp | +15bp | +41bp | Sustained highs cap crypto upside |
| EU 2y/10y | +1bp | +8bp | +22bp | EU rates steady = neutral for majors |
| US IG OAS | +1bp | +6bp | +18bp | Credit spreads stable = no new credit stress |
| US HY OAS | +3bp | +9bp | +32bp | Still contained; no systemic spillover |
| Euro IG/HY OAS | 0bp | +4bp | +13bp | Broad risk neutral for crypto |
| S&P 500 | -1.2 | +0.8 | +7.6 | Equity risk-off = drag on BTC/ETH |
| Nasdaq-100 | -1.6 | +1.2 | +9.1 | Tech beta faded; muted crypto linkage |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -0.8 | +0.2 | +4.3 | EU equities steady = neutral |
| FTSE 100 | -0.6 | -1.3 | +2.5 | UK equities soft; GBP stabilizing |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.4 | +2.7 | +11.4 | Japan divergence = global risk mix |
| MSCI EM | +0.1 | -1.5 | +3.9 | EM stable; no big USD flow impact |
| Brent/WTI | -2.1 | -7.3 | +14.6 | Oil soft = less tail-risk for crypto |
| EU NatGas TTF | +2.4 | +5.8 | -11.7 | Energy volatility = no direct crypto impact |
| Gold | +0.9 | +4.2 | +12.5 | Gold bid = risk hedge, mild BTC linkage |
| Copper | -0.3 | -2.4 | +1.7 | Growth pulse muted; neutral |
| VIX | +0.7 | -1.1 | +2.4 | Vol regime stable = crypto risk-on/off toggle |
| MOVE | +0.2 | -0.9 | +3.8 | Rates vol steady; funding cost stable |
Source: morningstar
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI (headline) | 7 Nov 2025 | Oct | +0.4% m/m | +0.3% | +0.4% | +0.1pt | Sticky inflation = high yields | morningstar |
| US | Core CPI | 7 Nov 2025 | Oct | +0.3% m/m | +0.3% | +0.3% | inline | Real yield tailwind/crypto cap | morningstar |
| US | NFP | 1 Nov 2025 | Oct | +172k | +180k | +190k | -8k | Labor cooling = possible risk-on | morningstar |
| US | ISM Manuf. | 1 Nov 2025 | Oct | 49.7 | 50.2 | 49.6 | -0.5pt | Growth pulse waning | morningstar |
| EU | HICP | 31 Oct 2025 | Oct | +2.9% y/y | +2.8% | +2.8% | +0.1pt | ECB policy path uncertainty | morningstar |
| EU | Core HICP | 31 Oct 2025 | Oct | +3.2% y/y | +3.1% | +3.2% | +0.1pt | No disinflation; euro neutral | morningstar |
| UK | CPI | 25 Oct 2025 | Sep | +4.1% y/y | +4.0% | +4.2% | +0.1pt | Sticky UK inflation, GBP steady | morningstar |
| China | CPI | 9 Nov 2025 | Oct | +0.6% y/y | +0.7% | +0.7% | -0.1pt | Policy easing risk, CNY stable | morningstar |
| Japan | CPI | 31 Oct 2025 | Sep | +2.6% y/y | +2.5% | +2.8% | +0.1pt | JPY weak, global risk flows | morningstar |
(Select metrics; see appendix for methods)
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto-Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet (assets) | $7.25T | -$8B | -$34B | QT = less USD liquidity, mild headwind | morningstar |
| TGA Balance | $713B | +$14B | +$41B | Higher TGA = less market liquidity | morningstar |
| ON RRP | $352B | -$7B | -$23B | Drawdown = mild risk-on for crypto | morningstar |
| Net Liquidity (est.) | $6.19T | -$7B | -$16B | Flat-to-down = crypto beta capped | morningstar |
| ECB Balance Sheet (net chg) | €7.1T | -€6B | -€26B | QT = euro liquidity drain, neutral | morningstar |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £900B | -£2B | -£7B | QT, little impact on crypto flow | morningstar |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥710T | +¥6T | +¥14T | BoJ loose = global risk offset | morningstar |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops | +¥140B | +¥20B | +¥73B | China easing = mild crypto tailwind | morningstar |
| China TSF | ¥2.9T | +1.2% | +6.5% | Credit impulse up = no major crypto impact | morningstar |
| USDT Net Issuance (1w/1m) | +$0.2B | +0.2B | +0.8B | Stablecoin flows signal risk-on/off | morningstar |
| USDC Net Issuance (1w/1m) | -$0.1B | -0.1B | -$0.1B | Outflows = risk-off for DeFi | morningstar |
| DAI Net Issuance (1w/1m) | Flat | ~0 | +0.1B | Neutral; low DeFi leverage | morningstar |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Event/Action | Status | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 25 | US | Bitcoin ETF approvals | Ongoing | Tailwind if flows rise | morningstar |
| 20 Oct 25 | EU | MiCA implementation step | In force | Tailwind for majors | morningstar |
| 7 Oct 25 | UK | FCA stablecoin consult | Ongoing | Uncertainty, mild cap | morningstar |
| 2 Nov 25 | US | SEC enforcement pause | Ongoing | Neutral, less headline | morningstar |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Dir. | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky core inflation | US/EU/UK | HW | 4 | 2–6w | High real yields, risk-off | morningstar |
| DXY trend | US/Global | HW/TW | 3 | 2–6w | FX channel, global liquidity | morningstar |
| ETF flows | US | TW | 2 | 2–6w | If flows accelerate, risk-on | morningstar |
| China easing | China | TW | 2 | 2–6w | Marginal liquidity tailwind | morningstar |
| Credit spreads | US/EU | HW | 2 | 2–6w | If widen, risk-off | morningstar |
| Regulatory noise | US/EU/UK | HW | 3 | 2–6w | ETF, MiCA, enforcement | morningstar |
| DeFi/Stablecoin flows | Global | HW/TW | 2 | 2–6w | Funding, risk sentiment | morningstar |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (Probability: 25%)
- Trigger: Soft US CPI, dovish Fed/ECB, DXY breaks lower
- Signposts: BTC reclaims $75k, stablecoin inflows, equities bid
- Expected Impact: BTC/ETH +10–15%, majors outperform, DeFi TVL up
- Analogs: Q1 2024 post-CPI rallymorningstar
Scenario 2: Base Case (Probability: 60%)
- Trigger: CPI inline, rates sticky, ETF flows muted
- Signposts: Range-bound BTC ($68–74k), flat DeFi TVL
- Expected Impact: Choppy majors, DeFi stable
- Analogs: Q2 2023 sideways regimemorningstar
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (Probability: 15%)
- Trigger: CPI surprise high, DXY surges, yields spike
- Signposts: BTC drops below $67k, stablecoin outflows
- Expected Impact: BTC/ETH -10%, alts/DeFi underperform
- Analogs: Aug 2022 macro selloffmorningstar
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov | US CPI Oct | US | +0.3% m/m | Rate path, yields, DXY | morningstar |
| 15 Nov | UK CPI Oct | UK | +4.1% y/y | GBP, global risk appetite | morningstar |
| 18 Nov | EU HICP Oct (final) | EU | +2.9% y/y | ECB policy, EUR | morningstar |
| 22 Nov | Fed Minutes | US | n/a | QT, liquidity, policy signals | morningstar |
| 29 Nov | China PMIs Nov | China | 50.3/50.0 | Growth pulse, CNY | morningstar |
| 14 Dec | ECB Meeting | EU | Hold | Policy inflection risk | morningstar |
| 18 Dec | FOMC Dot Plot | US | n/a | Rate path, funding costs | morningstar |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
Where available, primary data (Fed, ECB, BLS, BEA, Eurostat, ONS, PBoC, BoJ) and real-time market dashboards were prioritized. For crypto flows and ETF data, public dashboards and primary exchange/provider posts were emphasized. All data is as of 10–11 Nov 2025, London time. For cross-asset and regulatory context, top-tier newswires and official releases were used. Some discrepancies across sources (e.g., ETF flow estimates, balance sheet timing) were resolved by using the most recent, primary data print or direct provider posts. Data older than 3 months was excluded unless structurally relevant. morningstar