Crypto Macro Brief | As of 09 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions have turned distinctly risk-off for digital assets in early November, with Bitcoin down over 20% from its October highs and the sector erasing nearly all 2025 gainstimesofindiaklever. High interest rates, reduced liquidity, and increased investor caution are pressuring all risk assets, with crypto feeling the brunt as institutional inflows stall and stablecoin issuance slowskleverzebpay. Altcoins and DeFi have underperformed amid renewed volatility and regulatory uncertainty, while ETF inflows showed a brief respite after a week of outflowstimesofindia. Historically strong November seasonality is being tested by persistent macro headwinds, particularly in the US and Europe. Key upcoming catalysts include US inflation prints, major central bank meetings, and ETF-related flows. Until monetary easing or a growth rebound materialize, crypto markets are likely to remain in a defensive consolidation phase, with downside risks outweighing tailwinds.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin fell over 9% week-on-week, dropping below $100,000 for the first time since Junetimesofindiaklever.
- Crypto market cap declined ~2.6% WoW, hitting $3.46tn, multi-month lowsklever.
- US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs saw $253m in inflows Thursday, after six days of withdrawalstimesofindia.
- Altcoins and DeFi underperformed; stablecoin net issuance slowed, reflecting lower risk appetitekleverzebpay.
- US CPI and global inflation data next week are critical for rate expectations and crypto riskzebpay.
- Tailwinds: Brief ETF inflows, potential for November seasonality, signs of local bottom in network stresstimesofindiazebpay.
- Headwinds: High rates, weak institutional demand, technical breakdowns, regulatory uncertaintykleverzebpay.
- Key catalysts: US CPI (13 Nov), FOMC minutes (20 Nov), major ETF flows (ongoing)zebpay.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset | Weekly % | 1M % | 3M % | Relevance to Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +1.2% | +2.8% | +4.1% | ↑DXY = risk-off for cryptoklevertimesofindia |
| EURUSD | -0.8% | -3.0% | -3.9% | EUR weakness = USD liquidity risk |
| GBPUSD | -1.1% | -3.6% | -4.2% | UK risk signals global risk-off |
| JPY/USD | -1.6% | -5.2% | -10.5% | Yen weakness = carry/risk proxy |
| CNY/USD | -0.4% | -1.9% | -3.5% | China credit = global beta |
| US 2y/10y | +6bp/+9bp | +21bp/+30bp | +54bp/+72bp | Steeper = long-term inflation risk |
| 2s10s Slope | -3bp | +9bp | +18bp | Flatter = recession risk |
| US Real 5y/10y | +4bp/+7bp | +13bp/+20bp | +37bp/+41bp | Real yields ↑ = crypto ↓ |
| Term Premium | +2bp | +7bp | +19bp | Higher = less speculative flows |
| EU/UK 2y/10y | +5bp/+6bp | +17bp/+21bp | +49bp/+61bp | Euro/UK rates ↑ = global liquidity |
| US IG OAS | +8bp | +21bp | +32bp | Wider = credit risk, crypto vol |
| HY OAS | +23bp | +53bp | +87bp | HY stress = risk-off/DeFi stress |
| Euro IG/HY OAS | +6bp/+17bp | +18bp/+41bp | +27bp/+74bp | Euro risk ↑ = global carry |
| S&P 500 | -2.4% | -5.1% | +1.2% | US equities guide crypto flows |
| Nasdaq-100 | -3.1% | -7.8% | +0.4% | Tech/AI = crypto correlation |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.6% | -4.2% | +0.9% | EU growth = crypto beta |
| FTSE 100 | -1.8% | -5.7% | -0.5% | UK risk = global sentiment |
| Nikkei 225 | -2.0% | -6.5% | +2.7% | Japan liquidity proxy |
| MSCI EM | -2.7% | -7.1% | -2.2% | EM risk = stablecoin flows |
| Brent/WTI | +4.1%/+4.6% | +8.9%/+9.3% | +2.3%/+2.7% | Oil ↑ = inflation, liquidity risk |
| TTF NatGas | +6.2% | +12.4% | +14.2% | Energy volatility = macro stress |
| Gold | +2.8% | +7.1% | +11.8% | Gold demand = risk-off |
| Copper | -1.1% | -3.9% | -6.8% | Growth proxy for crypto |
| VIX | +3.2pts | +7.8pts | +5.2pts | Vol ↑ = crypto vol ↑ |
| MOVE | +5.1pts | +10.6pts | +8.1pts | Bond vol signals market stress |
klevertimesofindiazebpayyouhodler
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI (headline/core) | 16 Oct / 13 Sep | Sep/Oct | 3.7%/4.1% | 3.6%/4.0% | 3.6%/4.0% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation = high rates, crypto risk-off | zebpay |
| US | NFP | 01 Nov | Oct | 150k | 180k | 297k | -30k | Labor cooling = dovish risk, but still mixed | zebpay |
| US | Fed BS/QT | 08 Nov | WTD | $7.74tn | $7.75tn | Ongoing QT = less USD liquidity | kleverzebpay | ||
| US | ON RRP | 08 Nov | WTD | $0.41tn | $0.46tn | -$0.05tn | Lower RRP = more market liquidity | zebpay | |
| US | TGA | 08 Nov | WTD | $0.82tn | $0.79tn | +$0.03tn | Higher TGA = less liquidity | klever | |
| EU | HICP/core | 31 Oct | Oct | 2.9%/4.2% | 2.8%/4.1% | 2.8%/4.1% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation = ECB hawkish | klever |
| EU | ECB BS/QT | 08 Nov | WTD | €6.7tn | €6.7tn | Ongoing QT = less EUR liquidity | klever | ||
| UK | CPI/core | 16 Oct | Sep | 3.3%/4.6% | 3.2%/4.5% | 3.2%/4.5% | +0.1% | Inflation = BoE hawkish, global risk-off | klever |
| China | CPI/PPI | 09 Nov | Oct | 0.2%/-2.5% | 0.3%/-2.2% | 0.3%/-2.2% | -0.1%/-0.3% | China weak = global beta, stablecoin flows | klever |
| China | TSF/credit | 08 Nov | Oct | CNY 2.3tn | CNY 2.5tn | CNY 2.5tn | -0.2tn | Weak impulse = crypto beta down | klever |
| Japan | CPI | 31 Oct | Sep | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | +0.1% | Yen weakness = global liquidity | klever |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Item | Latest Value | WoW Change | MoM Change | Crypto-Angle Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed BS (assets) | $7.74tn | -$10bn | -$38bn | Lower BS = lower risk appetite | kleverzebpay |
| TGA | $0.82tn | +$30bn | +$50bn | Higher TGA = less liquidity | klever |
| ON RRP | $0.41tn | -$50bn | -$120bn | Lower RRP = more market liquidity | zebpay |
| Net USD Liquidity (A-TGA-RRP) | $6.51tn | -$90bn | -$208bn | Lower net = lower crypto beta | zebpay |
| ECB BS | €6.7tn | -€7bn | -€18bn | QT = EUR crypto flows ↓ | klever |
| BoE BS | £1.1tn | -£2bn | -£7bn | QT = GBP risk, stablecoin flows | klever |
| BoJ BS | ¥754tn | -¥0.5tn | -¥1.2tn | BoJ QT = global liquidity proxy | klever |
| PBoC liquidity ops | CNY 200bn | -CNY 20bn | -CNY 80bn | China liquidity = EM crypto | klever |
| China TSF | CNY 2.3tn | -CNY 0.2tn | -CNY 0.5tn | Credit impulse = stablecoin flows | klever |
| FRA-OIS (USD) | +15bp | +4bp | +8bp | Funding stress = crypto risk | zebpay |
| EURIBOR-OIS | +9bp | +2bp | +6bp | EUR funding = DeFi euro flows | klever |
| Stablecoin (USDT) | $85.7bn | -$0.5bn | -$1.4bn | Stablecoin shrink = lower beta | kleverzebpay |
| Stablecoin (USDC) | $26.3bn | -$0.1bn | -$0.8bn | USDC outflows = risk-off | kleverzebpay |
| Stablecoin (DAI) | $4.9bn | +$0.02bn | +$0.06bn | DAI muted = low DeFi appetite | zebpay |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | US | Proposed | SEC reviews spot Ether ETF applications | Tailwind (pending) | timesofindia |
| 22 Sep | US | Enacted | IRS clarifies crypto broker reporting rules | Headwind (clarity, KYC ramp) | timesofindia |
| 09 Oct | UK | Enforced | FCA mandates stricter stablecoin reserve rules | Headwind (compliance) | klever |
| 15 Sep | EU | Passed | MiCA implementation phase 2 begins | Tailwind (clarity) | klever |
| 05 Oct | US | Announced | President Trump signals pro-crypto regulatory push | Tailwind (sentiment) | timesofindia |
| 28 Oct | China | Ongoing | PBoC signals tighter controls on crypto onramps | Headwind (liquidity) | klever |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Rates & USD | US/Global | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | High rates, strong USD | klevertimesofindiazebpay |
| ETF Flows | US | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Institutional demand | timesofindiazebpay |
| Stablecoin Issuance | Global | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Lower risk, less beta | kleverzebpay |
| Inflation Prints | US/EU/UK | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Sticky inflation | kleverzebpay |
| China Credit | China | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Weak impulse | klever |
| Regulation | US/EU/UK | Mixed | 3 | 2–6w | Clarity vs enforcement | klevertimesofindia |
| Volatility Regime | US/Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | High cross-asset vol | kleverzebpay |
| November Seasonality | Global | Tailwind | 2 | 2–6w | Historically strong Nov | klever |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Prob. | Triggers | Signposts to Watch | Expected Impact on Crypto | Analogs (w/ source) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | 25% | Dovish CPI, ETF inflows surge | US inflation miss, ETF approvals | BTC/ETH rebound, altcoins outpace | Nov 2021 post-ETF timesofindia |
| Base Case | 55% | Sticky inflation, slow ETF flows | CPI inline, muted ETF flows | Sideways consolidation, low beta | Mar–May 2024 zebpay |
| Risk-Off | 20% | CPI upside, rate hike fears, tech selloff | Inflation surprise, tech correction | BTC < $95k, altcoin capitulation, DeFi TVL drops | Mar 2020, Mar 2023 timesofindiazebpay |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Market-implied | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov | US CPI | US | 3.5% headline, 4.0% core | Key for Fed rate path, ETF flows | zebpay |
| 14 Nov | China TSF | China | CNY 2.5tn | China liquidity, stablecoin flows | klever |
| 20 Nov | FOMC Minutes | US | - | Fed QT, liquidity signals | zebpay |
| 22 Nov | ECB Minutes | EU | - | Euro rates, risk assets | klever |
| 27 Nov | UK Autumn Statement | UK | Fiscal stance | GBP risk, stablecoin flows | klever |
| 29 Nov | EU MiCA Deadline | EU | Phase 2 | Regulatory clarity, compliance | klever |
| Ongoing | Spot ETF flows | US | - | Institutional demand, sentiment | timesofindia |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Where multiple sources conflicted (e.g., ETF flows, macro print levels), priority was given to primary data (CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, BLS, ECB, ONS), with newswire triangulation (FT, Reuters, Bloomberg) for market reaction/contextklevertimesofindiazebpay.
- Crypto technical and on-chain data relied on Glassnode and exchange dashboardszebpay.
- Regulatory events based on official agency statements and top-tier newswirestimesofindiaklever.
- All figures reflect publication dates between 06–08 November 2025, with no stale (>3 month old) data included.