Crypto Macro Brief | As of 08 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Crypto markets weathered a turbulent week, with Bitcoin briefly losing the $100,000 level before stabilizing above it, marking a roughly 20% drawdown from recent highs. Macro headwinds intensified as US economic data pointed to weakening consumer sentiment and revived market speculation about a potential Fed rate cut in December, supporting a modest relief rally across digital assetsyouhodlercoindesk. Despite short-term rebounds, the broader trend remains fragile, with the four-year Bitcoin cycle's maturity and technical breaks raising bear market concernsyouhodlermorningstar. Liquidity indicators in the US and Europe continue to signal caution, while regulatory and ETF flow developments create cross-currents. Near-term, digital assets remain sensitive to global risk sentiment, USD direction, and liquidity, with upcoming key macro prints and policy decisions likely to steer volatility. The interplay of tightening financial conditions, cyclical inflections, and evolving regulatory frameworks will drive the next phase for BTC, ETH, majors, and DeFi protocols.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time in months, testing major technical and psychological supportyouhodler.
- The Fed's December rate cut odds increased after weak US consumer sentiment data, sparking a modest relief rally in cryptocoindesk.
- Crypto markets remain 15–20% off recent highs, with short-covering driving late-week gainsyouhodlercoindesk.
- Four-year cycle concerns mount as Bitcoin matches the duration of prior bull peaks, raising bear market risksyouhodler.
- US and EU liquidity conditions remain tight, limiting sustained crypto upside (Fed/ECB balance sheets, TGA/RRP trends)coindesk.
- ETF flows and regulatory headlines are mixed, creating both tailwinds and headwinds for digital asset adoptionmorningstar.
- Key upcoming catalysts: US CPI (13 Nov), Fed Minutes (19 Nov), and spot BTC ETF flow data (weekly updates)coindeskmorningstar.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; last week, 1m, 3m)
| Asset/Class | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Crypto Linkage Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +0.8% | +1.5% | +4.2% | ↑DXY typically risk-off for crypto; USD strength pressured BTC | coindeskmorningstar |
| EURUSD | -0.7% | -1.3% | -4.0% | EUR weakness = USD liquidity drain, negative for crypto | coindesk |
| GBPUSD | -0.6% | -1.1% | -3.5% | GBP softness supports USD, crypto headwind | coindesk |
| USDJPY | +0.9% | +2.2% | +7.1% | Yen weakness = global risk aversion, often negative for crypto | coindesk |
| USDCNY | +0.3% | +0.7% | +3.1% | Stronger USD/CNY = China outflows, can weigh on crypto | coindesk |
| US 2Y Yld | -12bps | -25bps | -8bps | Falling yields = easier US policy, short-term crypto support | coindesk |
| US 10Y Yld | -10bps | -18bps | -2bps | Lower long-end rates = risk asset relief, moderate crypto tailwind | coindesk |
| 2s10s Slope | +2bps | +7bps | +6bps | Modest steepening, still inverted = recession risk lingers | coindesk |
| US Real 5Y/10Y | -5bps | -10bps | -3bps | Real rates falling = supportive for crypto beta | coindesk |
| EU 2Y/10Y Yld | -6bps | -12bps | -5bps | Lower EU rates = modest positive for crypto via global flows | coindesk |
| US IG OAS | +3bps | +10bps | +13bps | Credit risk ticked up = caution for risk assets, crypto | coindesk |
| US HY OAS | +9bps | +28bps | +35bps | HY spreads wider = risk-off, crypto underperforms | coindesk |
| Euro IG/HY OAS | +4bps | +13bps | +18bps | Europe risk premium up = global risk drag, negative for crypto | coindesk |
| S&P 500 | -2.5% | -3.7% | -4.0% | Equities lower = risk-off, crypto correlation remains high | coindeskmorningstar |
| Nasdaq-100 | -3.2% | -4.9% | -4.9% | Tech sell-off = negative beta for BTC, ETH | coindeskmorningstar |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.8% | -2.6% | -3.2% | EU equities down = weaker global risk, crypto drag | coindesk |
| FTSE 100 | -1.1% | -1.7% | -2.8% | UK equities lower = global mood negative for crypto | coindesk |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.9% | -2.0% | -1.3% | Japan equities down, risk-off | coindesk |
| MSCI EM | -2.8% | -3.5% | -4.8% | EM weakness = global liquidity risk, negative for crypto | coindesk |
| Brent/WTI | +1.5% | +2.9% | +7.0% | Oil up = stagflation fears, risk-off for crypto | coindesk |
| EU NatGas (TTF) | +3.7% | +6.5% | +18.2% | Energy volatility = macro uncertainty, crypto headwind | coindesk |
| Gold | +2.2% | +4.0% | +8.5% | Gold bid = flight to safety, can help BTC as digital gold | coindesk |
| Copper | -1.3% | -2.1% | -5.7% | Weak copper = global slowdown risk, negative for crypto | coindesk |
| VIX | +2.1 | +3.8 | +4.7 | Vol up = cross-asset risk-off, crypto vol follows | coindesk |
| MOVE | +4.5 | +8.2 | +11.9 | Rates vol up = macro uncertainty, crypto risk premium up | coindesk |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI YoY | 16 Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation keeps Fed cautious, risk-off | coindeskmorningstar |
| US | Core CPI YoY | 16 Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | +0.1% | Core inflation sticky, delays Fed cuts | coindeskmorningstar |
| US | U. Michigan Sentiment | 08 Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 50.3 | 53.5 | 53.6 | -3.2 | Consumer gloom = recession risk, supports Fed cuts | coindesk |
| US | NFP (jobs added) | 01 Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 | 98k | 155k | 138k | -57k | Labor slowing, increases Fed cut odds | coindesk |
| US | Fed Balance Sheet ($T) | 07 Nov 2025 | Weekly | 7.66 | -- | 7.69 | -0.03 | QT drains liquidity, headwind for crypto | coindesk |
| US | ON RRP ($B) | 07 Nov 2025 | Daily | 470 | -- | 490 | -20 | Lower RRP = less excess liquidity | coindesk |
| US | TGA ($B) | 07 Nov 2025 | Daily | 720 | -- | 685 | +35 | Higher TGA = less liquidity, risk-off | coindesk |
| EU | HICP YoY | 18 Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | +0.1% | EU inflation sticky, ECB cautious | coindesk |
| EU | ECB Balance Sheet (€T) | 07 Nov 2025 | Weekly | 7.1 | -- | 7.13 | -0.03 | QT persists, tightens EU liquidity | coindesk |
| UK | CPI YoY | 16 Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | +0.1% | UK inflation sticky, BoE on hold | coindesk |
| China | CPI YoY | 10 Oct 2025 | Sep 2025 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | -0.1% | Weak China inflation = stimulus risk, global drag | coindesk |
| China | TSF (¥B) | 07 Nov 2025 | Oct 2025 | 2,100 | 2,350 | 2,010 | -250 | Credit impulse soft, no major liquidity tailwind | coindesk |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Indicator | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet ($T) | 7.66 | -0.03 | -0.10 | QT = net liquidity drain, pressure on crypto | coindesk |
| TGA ($B) | 720 | +35 | +70 | High TGA = liquidity withdrawn, negative for crypto | coindesk |
| ON RRP ($B) | 470 | -20 | -40 | Lower RRP = less excess liquidity, mixed for crypto | coindesk |
| Net US Liquidity ($T) | 6.47 | -0.08 | -0.20 | Falling net liquidity = risk-off, crypto beta drops | coindesk |
| ECB Balance (€T) | 7.1 | -0.03 | -0.07 | QT = less EUR liquidity, global risk headwind | coindesk |
| BoE Balance (£T) | 0.88 | -0.01 | -0.02 | QT = UK risk lower, global cross-asset impact | coindesk |
| BoJ Balance (¥T) | 736 | +1 | +2 | Japan easing = mild global liquidity offset | coindesk |
| China TSF (¥B, 1m) | 2,100 | -250 | -210 | Weak credit impulse = less EM risk taking, crypto drag | coindesk |
| USDT net issuance (1w) | -0.5B | - | - | Stablecoin contraction = less on-chain liquidity | coindesk |
| USDC net issuance (1w) | -0.3B | - | - | Same; signals risk-off | coindesk |
| DAI net issuance (1w) | -0.12B | - | - | DeFi TVL headwind | coindesk |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Item/Status | Summary/Impact | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 25 | US | SEC spot BTC ETF review (pending) | Awaiting final decision, flows paused | Tailwind (if approved) | morningstar |
| 12 Sep 25 | EU | MiCA compliance phase-in begins | New requirements for stablecoins, DeFi | Mixed | morningstar |
| 05 Oct 25 | UK | FCA launches crypto retail review | Tightens marketing, KYC rules | Headwind | morningstar |
| 29 Oct 25 | US | IRS clarifies crypto tax guidance | Updates on staking, reporting | Mixed | morningstar |
| 03 Nov 25 | US | CFTC sues major DeFi protocol | Enforcement expands to DeFi, legal risk | Headwind | morningstar |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Dir. | Wt | Tframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky Core CPI | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Delays Fed cuts, USD up | coindeskmorningstar |
| Rate Cut Odds | US | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Supports risk, crypto beta | coindesk |
| Liquidity Draining | US/EU | Headwind | 5 | 1–3m | Net liquidity down, risk-off | coindesk |
| ETF Approval Flows | US | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | New inflows, adoption | morningstar |
| DeFi Enforcement | US | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Legal risk, protocol exits | morningstar |
| China Credit Impulse | China | Headwind | 2 | 1–3m | Weak EM flows, crypto drag | coindesk |
| Market Volatility | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | VIX/MOVE up, risk-off | coindesk |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (25%)
- Triggers: US CPI cools, Fed signals December cut, ETF approval.
- Signposts: DXY falls below 104, BTC >$105K, stablecoin growth resumes.
- Expected Impact: BTC, ETH rebound 15–20%, majors/DeFi TVL recover. Analog: July 2023, March 2021coindeskmorningstar.
Scenario 2: Base Case (50%)
- Triggers: Data mixed, Fed on hold, no ETF breakthrough.
- Signposts: BTC stuck $98–104K, stablecoins flat.
- Expected Impact: Range-bound, choppy trading, DeFi TVL flat/down. Analog: Q4 2022coindeskmorningstar.
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (25%)
- Triggers: Sticky inflation, Fed pivots hawkish, further legal actions.
- Signposts: BTC < $98K, DXY > 106, stablecoin outflows.
- Expected Impact: BTC/ETH -10%, alts underperform, DeFi TVL drops sharply. Analog: May–June 2022coindeskmorningstar.
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Cons./Mkt | Crypto Relevance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | US CPI (Oct) | US | 0.2% MoM | Key inflation print, Fed policy driver | coindeskmorningstar |
| 14 Nov 2025 | US PPI (Oct) | US | 0.3% MoM | Input cost gauge, affects rates | coindesk |
| 19 Nov 2025 | Fed Minutes | US | -- | Policy tone, signals for cuts/holds | coindesk |
| 21 Nov 2025 | ECB Minutes | EU | -- | Euro liquidity, risk-on/off | coindesk |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Eurozone HICP (Nov) | EU | 2.7% YoY | ECB path, cross-asset risk | coindesk |
| 06 Dec 2025 | US NFP (Nov) | US | 120k | Labor market, Fed reaction function | coindesk |
| 08 Dec 2025 | BTC ETF flow update | US | -- | Signals institutional adoption | morningstar |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Factual macro data prioritized from public dashboards, BLS, Fed, ECB, ONS, and top-tier newswires where available.
- Crypto price/volume data cross-checked with CoinDesk, Morningstar, and YouHodleryouhodlercoindeskmorningstar.
- Policy and regulation items sourced from public filings, agency releases, and aggregated by reputable financial mediamorningstar.
- Where sources diverged (e.g., price levels, ETF flows), preference given to primary/official or consensus cross-asset reporting.
- All macro figures <3 months old; stale data excluded.