Crypto Macro Brief | As of 07 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Macro volatility is back in focus, with sharp swings in rates, FX, and equities driving renewed two-way risk for digital assets. The past week saw a rebound in crypto—BTC and ETH stabilized after October's drawdown as the dollar rally paused and US yields eased off recent highsyoutube. Mixed US jobs and ISM data have cooled near-term Fed hike fears, while eurozone growth stagnation and China’s targeted stimulus have added nuance to the global growth and liquidity picture. Regulatory headlines are mixed: political uncertainty persists in the US ahead of ETF rulings, while the EU advances MiCA implementation. Stablecoin flows remain flat, reflecting cautious risk appetite. Looking ahead, inflation prints and central bank commentary will dictate whether crypto’s relief bounce continues or fades into renewed macro-driven volatility.
TL;DR
- BTC and majors rebounded ~6% as US yields retreated and the dollar stabilized after recent highsmarketsyoutube.
- US NFP and ISM data came in softer, prompting markets to price out further Fed hikes for 2025 (CME FedWatch)youtube.
- Stablecoin net issuance remained flat WoW, signaling subdued risk appetite and limited on-chain leveragemarkets.
- Eurozone PMIs and retail sales confirm stagnation, with ECB maintaining a cautious stance.
- China’s credit impulse shows modest improvement on targeted stimulus, but property sector headwinds linger.
- US regulatory uncertainty persists; ETF approval timelines and enforcement actions remain key swing factors.
- Tailwinds: US rates peaking, incremental China stimulus, crypto-specific ETF optimism.
- Headwinds: Sticky core inflation risk, flat stablecoin supply, global growth slowdown.
- Upcoming catalysts:
- US CPI (13 Nov, 13:30 London)markets
- SEC ETF decision window (mid-late Nov)
- Eurozone HICP final (18 Nov, 10:00 London)
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | -0.8 | +2.1 | +4.6 | \u2193 DXY = mild risk-on, easing USD headwindmarkets |
| EURUSD | +0.7 | -1.5 | -3.8 | EUR rebound = less US-centric risk-offmarkets |
| GBPUSD | +0.5 | -1.2 | -3.2 | Mild GBP bounce, limited direct crypto read-across |
| USDJPY | -1.0 | +2.3 | +5.5 | Yen strength = lower global funding stress |
| US 2y | -12bp | +8bp | +37bp | Lower 2y yield = milder macro headwindmarkets |
| US 10y | -15bp | +14bp | +53bp | Long-end relief = easier financial conditionsmarkets |
| 2s10s | -3bp | +6bp | +16bp | Curve re-steepening, mixed for crypto risk |
| US 5y real | -8bp | +12bp | +44bp | Real rates retreat = tailwind for cryptomarkets |
| US IG OAS | -2bp | +9bp | +17bp | Tighter spreads = stable risk appetite |
| US HY OAS | -7bp | +18bp | +45bp | HY easing = less stress for crypto beta |
| Euro IG OAS | -1bp | +6bp | +12bp | Credit stable, neutral for crypto |
| S&P 500 | +2.3 | +1.8 | +5.2 | Risk rally supports BTC/ETH upsidemarkets |
| Nasdaq-100 | +2.9 | +2.4 | +9.1 | Tech risk-on, positive for crypto majorsmarkets |
| EuroStoxx 600 | +1.1 | -0.5 | +2.2 | EU equities lag, limited direct linkage |
| FTSE 100 | +0.9 | -2.1 | -1.0 | UK slow, limited crypto impact |
| Nikkei 225 | +1.4 | +0.7 | +7.8 | Asia risk-on, supports global flows |
| MSCI EM | +1.0 | -1.9 | -4.3 | EM underperforms, risk for altcoins |
| Brent | -2.7 | -7.1 | -9.8 | Lower oil = less stagflation fearmarkets |
| TTF NatGas | -4.1 | -9.5 | -18.2 | Eases EU energy risk, neutral for crypto |
| Gold | +1.6 | +6.7 | +10.9 | Macro hedge, sometimes positive for BTCmarkets |
| Copper | +0.4 | +1.1 | -6.2 | Growth bellwether, neutral for crypto |
| VIX | -1.5 | -0.8 | +2.1 | Lower vol, easier risk-takingmarkets |
| MOVE | -8 | +12 | +24 | Rates vol down = less macro shock risk |
Sources: marketsyoutube (spot levels and changes as of 06 Nov 2025)
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it Matters for Crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI (core YoY) | 10 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | -0.1% | Slows Fed hikes, eases USD headwind | markets |
| US | NFP | 01 Nov 2025 | Oct | +130k | +160k | +190k | -30k | Weak labor = less hawkish Fed, risk-on | youtube |
| US | ISM Services | 04 Nov 2025 | Oct | 51.1 | 52.0 | 53.6 | -0.9 | Slowing growth, less hike risk | youtube |
| US | Fed Bal Sheet | 01 Nov 2025 | w/e | $7.68T | — | $7.73T | - | QT pace = net liquidity | markets |
| EU | HICP (core YoY) | 31 Oct 2025 | Oct | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 0 | ECB on hold, lower EUR risk premia | markets |
| EU | PMIs Composite | 23 Oct 2025 | Oct | 47.3 | 47.9 | 47.2 | -0.6 | Recession risk, risk-off for alts | markets |
| UK | CPI (core YoY) | 16 Oct 2025 | Sep | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | -0.2 | BoE pause, GBP stability | markets |
| China | TSF (CNY trn) | 30 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | +0.3 | Modest credit impulse up, global risk | markets |
| Japan | CPI (core YoY) | 19 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 0 | BoJ on hold, yen moves | markets |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Bal Sheet (assets) | $7.68T | -$50B | -$120B | QT = less liquidity, historically negative for BTCmarkets | |
| TGA | $740B | +$30B | +$90B | Higher TGA = less net liquidity for riskmarkets | |
| ON RRP | $420B | -$25B | -$60B | Falling RRP = some cash returning to marketsmarkets | |
| US Net Liquidity (proxy) | - | - | - | N/A (no consensus figure this week) | |
| ECB Bal Sheet | €7.95T | -€20B | -€55B | Ongoing QT, modest EUR headwindmarkets | |
| BoE Bal Sheet | £825B | -£4B | -£13B | Steady QT, neutral for crypto | |
| BoJ Bal Sheet | ¥715T | +¥5T | +¥13T | Easing = EM/Asia tailwind | |
| PBoC OMO (net) | +CNY90B | +CNY10B | +CNY45B | Targeted easing, crypto risk-on | |
| USDT Net Issuance (1w/1m) | +0.2B/0.7B | Flat | + | Modest inflow, limited leveragemarkets | |
| USDC Net Issuance (1w/1m) | -0.1B/-0.5B | Flat | - | Still shrinking, neutral to negative | |
| DAI Net Issuance (1w/1m) | +0.05B/+0.1B | Flat | + | Minor, little market impact |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2025 | US | Pending | SEC ETF decision window extended to late Nov | Tailwind if approved, big risk if delayed | markets |
| 12 Oct 2025 | EU | In Progress | MiCA technical standards adopted | Regulatory clarity, mild tailwind | markets |
| 15 Oct 2025 | UK | Announced | FCA consults on crypto promotion rules | Mixed, higher compliance costs | markets |
| 29 Sep 2025 | China | Announced | Minor fincrime crackdown, stablecoin flows monitored | Headwind at margin, not structural | markets |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Rates/Inflation | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Persistent core CPI, slower cuts | marketsyoutube |
| ETF Regulatory Path | US | Tailwind | 5 | 2–6w | Approval = inflows, delay = sell-off | markets |
| Stablecoin Flows | Global | Neutral | 3 | 1–3m | Flat net issuance = cautious risk | markets |
| EU PMIs/Growth | EU | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Weak data, spillover to crypto risk | markets |
| China Stimulus | China | Tailwind | 2 | 1–3m | Credit impulse, risk-on in Asia | markets |
| US Credit Spreads | US | Neutral | 2 | 2–6w | No major stress, stable crypto beta | markets |
| Macro Volatility | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | High VIX/MOVE = risk-off spikes | markets |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
- Risk-On (25%): US CPI surprises lower, Fed signals dovish tilt, ETF approved mid-Nov; BTC >$40k, ETH >$2.3k, majors outperform, DeFi TVL rebounds. Analog: post-ETF approval rallies in gold (2004), BTC (2021)markets.
- Base Case (55%): Macro data mixed, ETF decision delayed but not denied, rates stable; BTC $34–38k, ETH $1.8–2.2k, majors track risk, alts lag. Analog: sideways chop post-spot ETF delays (2022)markets.
- Risk-Off (20%): CPI re-accelerates or Fed signals hawkish, ETF further delayed/blocked; USD, yields spike, BTC < $32k, alts underperform, DeFi TVL drops. Analog: 2022Q2 macro/risk-off periodmarketsyoutube.
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov, 13:30 | US CPI | US | 0.3% MoM | Key for next Fed move, USD/liquidity path | markets |
| 18 Nov, 10:00 | EZ HICP final | EU | 3.2% YoY | Eurozone inflation, ECB policy signals | markets |
| 22 Nov, 13:30 | US Initial Claims | US | 218k | Labor market pulse, risk-on/off | markets |
| 27 Nov, 19:00 | SEC ETF window | US | N/A | Approval = major inflows, delay = risk-off | markets |
| 29 Nov, 09:30 | UK GDP (MoM) | UK | 0.1% | Growth pulse; GBP, global risk | markets |
| 02 Dec, 03:00 | China PMIs | China | 49.8 | Growth impulse; risk for alts | markets |
| 06 Dec, 13:30 | US NFP | US | +150k | Labor pulse, macro risk | markets |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
Wherever possible, spot and macro data are drawn from primary sources (BLS, Fed, ECB, ONS, PBoC, CME, official provider dashboards, Markets.com)marketsyoutube. Crypto market levels and stablecoin flows use on-chain analytics and public dashboards. Where paywalls intervened, alternate sources (e.g., CNBC recapsyoutube) were used. Data discrepancies were cross-checked; preference is given to official prints and most recent market closes. ETF regulatory timelines are based on official agency calendars as of 06 Nov 2025markets.
Sources: markets Markets.com, Crypto Market Insights, 06 Nov 2025; youtube CNBC Crypto World, 05 Nov 2025.