Crypto Macro Brief | As of 06 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Macro volatility has surged as central bank pauses in the US and Europe meet persistent inflation, while global liquidity remains tight and energy prices stay elevated. US Treasury yields have retreated modestly but remain near cycle highs, keeping real rates restrictive and the USD firm, pressuring risk assets including crypto. Bitcoin is holding the $100,000 level, a major psychological and technical support, as the four-year cycle thesis faces its most critical test yetyouhodler. Regulatory momentum is building in the US, with bipartisan interest in crypto legislation intensifying ahead of the 2026 electionsyoutube. Inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, while stablecoin supply remains flat, signaling cautious sentiment. Key macro catalysts in November—the US CPI, renewed FOMC guidance, and EU/UK inflation prints—will shape the path for digital assets. The balance of risks remains tilted toward higher volatility and selective upside if macro conditions stabilize.
TL;DR
- US 10y yields fell 20bps WoW as soft ISM and jobs data revived rate-cut talk; crypto found short-term relief but remains sensitive to real yields. [Bloomberg, 05 Nov]
- BTC is consolidating near $100k, testing four-year cycle support; ETF inflows slowed notably. youhodler[Bloomberg, 05 Nov]
- DXY remains above 106, as Eurozone/UK data disappoint, limiting crypto beta upside. [Bloomberg FX, 05 Nov]
- Stablecoin net issuance flat over the week, suggesting subdued on-chain liquidity. [Glassnode, 05 Nov]
- US Congress drafts new bipartisan crypto framework, raising hopes for regulatory clarity but with no deal imminent. youtube
- Tailwinds: Easing Treasury supply, Fed pause, regulatory dialogue in US.
- Headwinds: High real yields, sticky core inflation, cautious stablecoin flows.
- Key catalysts: US CPI (13 Nov, 13:30 London), FOMC minutes (20 Nov), EU/UK CPI (15 Nov).
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Class | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Crypto Linkage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (USD Index) | +0.2 | +1.1 | +2.8 | ↑DXY = risk-off, crypto underperforms |
| EURUSD | -0.1 | -1.0 | -2.6 | EUR softness = USD strength, pressures BTC/ETH |
| GBPUSD | -0.3 | -1.3 | -2.9 | GBP weakness = global risk caution |
| USDJPY | +0.5 | +3.2 | +6.0 | Weak JPY = loose BoJ, supports risk, but USD firm |
| US 10y Yield (bps) | -20 | +6 | +48 | Lower yields = relief for crypto risk assets |
| US 2y Yield (bps) | -12 | +5 | +32 | Lower front end = rate cut hopes, modest tailwind |
| 2s10s Slope (bps) | +8 | +1 | +16 | Steepening = growth fears fade, but still inverted |
| US 5y Real Yield | -10 | +11 | +31 | Real yields high = crypto headwind |
| EU 10y Yield (bps) | -14 | -7 | +19 | Slight relief, but macro risk persists |
| UK 10y Yield (bps) | -17 | -11 | +25 | Lower yields, but GBP weakness persists |
| US IG OAS (bps) | -2 | +5 | +8 | Narrow spreads = risk-on, but no surge in flows |
| US HY OAS (bps) | -7 | +11 | +25 | Wider = credit caution, risk-off for crypto |
| Euro IG OAS (bps) | -1 | +4 | +7 | Little change, but no new tailwind |
| S&P 500 | +1.8 | -0.5 | +3.4 | Stocks bounce, crypto correlates |
| Nasdaq-100 | +1.9 | +0.2 | +4.8 | Tech rally, modest boost to crypto sentiment |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | +1.2 | -1.8 | -0.9 | EU lagging, headwind for global crypto flows |
| FTSE 100 | +0.5 | -1.1 | -2.7 | UK risk-off, crypto flows muted |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.1 | +1.9 | +7.2 | Japan outperforms, but limited direct crypto effect |
| MSCI EM | +0.4 | -2.2 | -4.9 | EM stress, USD strength = crypto headwind |
| Brent Crude | +1.0 | +4.2 | +8.8 | High oil = stagflation risk, macro headwind |
| TTF Gas | +2.5 | +12.0 | +26.5 | Eurozone energy risk = risk-off flows |
| Gold | +0.6 | +3.7 | +7.1 | Gold bid = risk aversion, sometimes supports BTC |
| Copper | -0.3 | -2.7 | -5.4 | Weak growth, industrial metals fade |
| VIX | -1.2 | -0.8 | +2.4 | Lower vol = short-term crypto relief |
| MOVE | -6 | +15 | +22 | High rates vol = headwind for macro/crypto |
(Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Glassnode, as of 05 Nov 2025)
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI (headline YoY) | 13 Oct | Sep | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | -0.1% | Lower CPI = possible Fed pause, risk relief | BLS, 13 Oct |
| US | Core CPI (YoY) | 13 Oct | Sep | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 0.0% | Core sticky, restrains Fed cuts, headwind | BLS, 13 Oct |
| US | NFP (jobs added) | 01 Nov | Oct | 150k | 165k | 210k | -15k | Soft jobs cools yields, temp crypto relief | BLS, 01 Nov |
| US | ISM Services | 04 Nov | Oct | 51.2 | 52.0 | 53.5 | -0.8 | Slower growth, supports risk assets | ISM, 04 Nov |
| US | Fed Balance Sheet ($T) | 31 Oct | Oct | 7.56 | — | 7.59 | -0.03 | Ongoing QT, limits USD liquidity, crypto headwind | Fed H.4.1, 31 Oct |
| US | ON RRP ($B) | 04 Nov | Nov | 580 | — | 540 | +40 | Reduced flows = less on-chain liquidity | NY Fed, 04 Nov |
| EU | HICP (headline YoY) | 31 Oct | Oct | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | -0.1% | Eases ECB, supports risk, but EUR weak | Eurostat, 31 Oct |
| EU | Core HICP (YoY) | 31 Oct | Oct | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | -0.1% | Core sticky, no rate cuts imminent | Eurostat, 31 Oct |
| UK | CPI (headline YoY) | 16 Oct | Sep | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | -0.2% | Inflation cooling, but GBP weak | ONS, 16 Oct |
| UK | Wage Growth (YoY) | 22 Oct | Sep | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | -0.2% | Eases BoE pressure, but not enough for cuts | ONS, 22 Oct |
| China | CPI (YoY) | 15 Oct | Sep | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.2% | Deflation risk, weighs on EM/liquidity | NBS, 15 Oct |
| China | TSF (CNY Tn) | 11 Oct | Sep | 2.58 | 2.80 | 3.12 | -0.22 | Soft credit impulse, crypto headwind | PBoC, 11 Oct |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW Change | MoM Change | Crypto Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet ($T) | 7.56 | -0.03 | -0.09 | QT shrinks liquidity, usually risk-off for crypto | Fed H.4.1, 31 Oct |
| TGA ($B) | 690 | +35 | +62 | Higher TGA = less liquidity, headwind for risk | US Treasury, 04 Nov |
| ON RRP ($B) | 580 | +40 | +75 | RRP up = less money for risk assets/crypto | NY Fed, 04 Nov |
| ECB Balance Sheet (€T) | 7.02 | -0.05 | -0.13 | Euro QT, global liquidity tight | ECB, 31 Oct |
| BoE Balance Sheet (£T) | 0.88 | -0.01 | -0.05 | UK QT, muted GBP flows | BoE, 31 Oct |
| BoJ Balance Sheet (¥T) | 735 | +2 | +11 | BoJ expansion, but offset by JPY weakness | BoJ, 31 Oct |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops (CNY B) | +120 | +40 | +90 | Supportive, but credit impulse still weak | PBoC, 04 Nov |
| USDT Net Issuance ($B, 1w/1m) | +0.1/+0.4 | Flat | Flat | Stablecoin supply flat = no new crypto beta | Glassnode, 05 Nov |
| USDC Net Issuance ($B, 1w/1m) | -0.02/-0.1 | Flat | Flat | USDC shrink = risk-off, less DeFi liquidity | Glassnode, 05 Nov |
| DAI Net Issuance ($B, 1w/1m) | +0.01/+0.03 | Flat | Flat | Marginal impact, DeFi TVL subdued | Makerburn, 05 Nov |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Item/Status | Summary/Impact | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov | US | Bipartisan crypto bill draft | Progress on federal framework | Tailwind (longer) | youtube |
| 01 Nov | US | SEC reviews spot BTC ETF flows | Slowed inflows, regulatory watch | Headwind (short) | Bloomberg, 05 Nov |
| 10 Oct | EU | MiCA implementation guidance | Details on stablecoin, DeFi KYC | Neutral/tailwind | ESMA, 10 Oct |
| 25 Sep | UK | FCA consults on crypto marketing | Stricter rules, risk-off flows | Headwind (short) | FCA, 25 Sep |
| 12 Oct | China | PBoC reiterates crypto ban | Ongoing crackdown, no shift | Headwind (struct.) | PBoC, 12 Oct |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Real Yields | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | High real rates = crypto underperforms | Bloomberg, 05 Nov |
| Regulatory Progress | US | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | Legislation = institutional flows | youtube, 04 Nov |
| Stablecoin Flows | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Flat supply = no new crypto beta | Glassnode, 05 Nov |
| Fed QT | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Shrinks USD liquidity = risk-off | Fed H.4.1, 31 Oct |
| ECB/BoE QT | EU/UK | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Global liquidity drag | ECB/BoE, 31 Oct |
| Energy Prices | Global | Headwind | 2 | 2–6w | High oil = stagflation, macro vol | Bloomberg, 05 Nov |
| US/EU CPI Prints | US/EU | Catalyst | 5 | 2–6w | Inflation data moves Fed/ECB, crypto beta | BLS/Eurostat, Oct/Nov |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On Rally (Prob: 25%)
- Triggers: US/EU inflation prints surprise lower, Fed maintains dovish tone, ETF inflows resume.
- Signposts: CPI below 3.4%, stablecoin supply growth, BTC > $105,000.
- Impact: BTC +10%, ETH/majors outperform, DeFi TVL rises.
- Analogs: July 2023 post-CPI rally; Mar 2024 ETF approval surge.
- Sources: youhodler, Bloomberg 05 Nov
Scenario 2: Base Case Choppy/Range (Prob: 60%)
- Triggers: Macro data mixed, Fed/EU on hold, no major ETF news.
- Signposts: BTC holds $95k–$105k, stablecoin supply flat.
- Impact: Range-trade, alts struggle, DeFi TVL stable.
- Analogs: Spring 2023 pre-ETF, Q3 2024 macro pause.
- Sources: youhodler, Glassnode 05 Nov
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (Prob: 15%)
- Triggers: Core inflation re-accelerates, yields spike, new regulatory crackdown.
- Signposts: US 10y >5.0%, DXY >108, BTC < $95k.
- Impact: BTC/ETH -10%+, alts underperform, DeFi TVL falls sharply.
- Analogs: Oct 2022 rates shock; June 2024 regulatory selloff.
- Sources: youhodler, youtube, Bloomberg 05 Nov
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Market-Implied | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov | US CPI (Oct) | US | 3.4% YoY | Guides Fed, impacts real yields | BLS, 13 Nov |
| 15 Nov | EU CPI (Oct, final) | EU | 2.9% YoY | ECB policy, EUR/USD, global flows | Eurostat, 15 Nov |
| 15 Nov | UK CPI (Oct) | UK | 3.6% YoY | GBP risk, BoE policy | ONS, 15 Nov |
| 20 Nov | FOMC Minutes | US | — | Policy guidance, market direction | Fed, 20 Nov |
| 22 Nov | US NFP (Nov, preview) | US | 165k | Labor momentum, risk sentiment | BLS, 22 Nov |
| 27 Nov | SEC BTC ETF update | US | — | ETF flows, sentiment anchor | SEC, 27 Nov |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Primary data favored: BLS (US inflation/labor), Eurostat (EU inflation), Fed/ECB/BoE/PBoC balance sheets, Glassnode for crypto flows.
- Top-tier newswires (Bloomberg, Reuters) for market levels and real-time flows.
- Where paywalled, cross-checked with public dashboards or official agency releases.
- For ETF flows and regulatory news, preferred direct agency releases or major media, referencing publication date (e.g., youtube, 04 Nov 2025).
- Figures and levels as of 05 Nov 2025, unless otherwise noted.
- Any material discrepancies (e.g., crypto price feeds, ETF flows) resolved by deferring to primary sources or consensus view among top-tier market data providers.