Crypto Macro Brief | As of 03 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
A cautious tone has set in across global macro and digital asset markets as the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut failed to catalyze risk appetite, with hawkish guidance for December tempering optimism. US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerated last week, signaling persistent institutional risk-off sentiment and suppressing price momentum for BTC and ETH, both of which hover near pivotal technical levels. Macro data from the US (mixed labor, sticky core inflation), Europe (stagflation signals), and China (credit stabilization but weak property) are reinforcing a fragile risk backdrop, while global liquidity remains tight despite modest central bank balance sheet adjustments. Key upcoming catalysts—including US CPI (13 Nov), Fed minutes (19 Nov), and Bitcoin ETF inflow data—will likely set the tone for crypto’s next directional move. Regulatory headlines remain mixed: while ETF approvals have broadened access, recent enforcement actions and tax guidance weigh as headwinds. The interplay of resilient but flatlining crypto prices, macro cross-currents, and liquidity constraints implies a base-case for consolidation, with tail risks skewed to the downside if US data or ETF flows deteriorate further.
TL;DR
- US Fed cut rates but maintained a hawkish December outlook, muting risk-on flowsblog.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw ~$191M of outflows last week, reflecting waning institutional demandblog.
- BTC hovers near $110,000 after a weak October; market eyes $120K as resistance, with momentum stallingblog.
- Global equities rallied modestly, but US/EU PMIs and China property weakness cap upside for risk assetsblog.
- Stablecoin net issuance flat WoW, suggesting neutral on-chain liquidity backdropblog.
- Tailwinds: Resilient crypto price structure (higher lows since 2022), ongoing ETF product launchesblog.
- Headwinds: Hawkish Fed guidance, ETF outflows, tepid macro data, regulatory overhangblog.
- Key upcoming catalysts: US CPI (13 Nov), Fed minutes (19 Nov), Bitcoin ETF flows (daily/weekly)blog.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; last week, 1m, 3m)
| Asset | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance to Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (USD) | +0.3 | -0.8 | +1.5 | ↑DXY typically risk-off for cryptoblog. |
| EURUSD | -0.2 | +1.1 | -1.3 | Weaker EUR often correlates with lower crypto beta in EUblog. |
| GBPUSD | -0.1 | +0.5 | -0.7 | GBP softness reflects UK growth risks, minor crypto impactblog. |
| USDJPY | +0.4 | +0.7 | +2.0 | JPY weakness supports global USD strength, risk-off for cryptoblog. |
| US 2Y | -6bp | -14bp | +11bp | Lower short rates modestly support risk assetsblog. |
| US 10Y | -4bp | -8bp | +19bp | Long-end still sticky; high real yields cap crypto upsideblog. |
| 2s10s Slope | +2bp | +6bp | -8bp | Bearish flattening signals growth concern—risk-offblog. |
| US 5Y Real | -3bp | -7bp | +14bp | Real yields remain historically high, negative for BTCblog. |
| S&P 500 | +1.5 | -0.4 | +2.2 | Modest rebound; beta to crypto risk-onblog. |
| Nasdaq-100 | +2.0 | +0.2 | +3.5 | Tech rally supportive but failing to lift BTCblog. |
| Euro Stoxx | +0.9 | -1.2 | +0.6 | EU equities lag, reflecting stagflation riskblog. |
| Brent | -2.5 | -6.0 | +1.1 | Softer oil reduces inflation tail risk, little direct crypto flowblog. |
| Gold | +0.7 | +5.2 | +11.5 | Gold strength signals risk hedging, sometimes positive for BTCblog. |
| VIX | -0.9 | -2.1 | -0.4 | Lower vol, but still above mean—crypto vol remains bidblog. |
| BTC | -1.1 | +3.4 | +20.7 | Consolidation below $120K, ETF outflows headwindblog. |
| ETH | -1.4 | +2.3 | +16.2 | Still lagging BTC, pressured by ETF outflowsblog. |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Core CPI YoY | 17 Oct | Sep | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation keeps Fed hawkish, USD liquidity tight | blog |
| US | NFP | 1 Nov | Oct | 150k | 170k | 190k | -20k | Slower jobs = less rate pressure, but not enough for Fed pivot | blog |
| US | Fed Funds | 30 Oct | Oct | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.5% | -0.25% | Rate cut failed to boost risk; hawkish dot plot | blog |
| EU | Core HICP YoY | 31 Oct | Oct | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | -0.1% | Sticky core, ECB cautious, risk-off for EU crypto | blog |
| UK | CPI YoY | 16 Oct | Sep | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | -0.1% | Persistent inflation, BoE on hold | blog |
| China | TSF YoY | 18 Oct | Sep | +9.5% | +9.2% | +9.3% | +0.3% | Credit pulse stabilizes, but property still weak | blog |
| US | ETF Flows | 1 Nov | Oct | -$191M | -- | +$80M | Large out | Institutional demand for BTC/ETH waning | blog |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet (Assets) | $7.68T | -$9B | -$24B | Shrinking sheet = tighter USD liquidity, risk-off | blog |
| TGA | $795B | +$6B | +$21B | Higher TGA drains liquidity, negative for crypto | blog |
| ON RRP | $470B | -$10B | -$35B | RRP drawdown mildly positive, but still high | blog |
| Net US Liquidity Estimate | $6.42T | -$13B | -$38B | Proxy for USD risk asset beta—still falling | blog |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €7.1T | +€2B | -€8B | Marginal change, neutral for EU crypto | blog |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥750T | +¥3T | +¥12T | Yen liquidity, minor impact globally | blog |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops | ¥110B net | +¥20B | +¥45B | China pulse neutral, crypto beta low | blog |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance | USDT: $0B | 0 | +$0.3B | Flat = neutral on-chain liquidity | blog |
| USDC: -$0.1B | -0.1B | -0.2B | USDC contraction = mild risk-off for DeFi | blog | |
| DAI: 0B | 0 | +0.05B | DAI stable, no new leverage | blog |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
- US (Oct 2025): SEC approved 2 new ETH spot ETFs; however, cumulative flows remain negative since launch, muting bullish impact (tailwind, but fading)blog.
- US (Oct 2025): IRS issued new crypto tax guidance, raising compliance costs for DeFi protocols and US exchanges (headwind)blog.
- EU (Sep–Oct 2025): MiCA stablecoin rules phased in, requiring issuer disclosures and liquidity buffers—some minor stablecoin delistings, but no systemic disruption (mild headwind)blog.
- UK (Oct 2025): FCA launched major enforcement action against unregistered crypto exchanges, tightening KYC/AML (headwind)blog.
- China (Sep 2025): PBoC reiterated digital yuan push, but no new restrictions on public crypto trading (neutral)blog.
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Policy | US | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Hawkish guidance, high real yields | blog |
| ETF Flows | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Outflows = lower inst. demand | blog |
| Stablecoin Flows | Global | Neutral | 2 | 2–6w | Flat net issuance | blog |
| Macro Data | US/EU | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Sticky inflation, slowing growth | blog |
| Crypto Structure | Global | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Higher lows since 2022, resilience | blog |
| Regulation | US/EU | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | New tax/enforcement, MiCA rollout | blog |
| China Credit | China | Neutral | 2 | 2–6w | Stabilizing TSF, weak property | blog |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
1. Risk-On (20%)
- Triggers: US CPI downside surprise (13 Nov), ETF inflows resume, dovish Fed minutes.
- Signposts: Soft inflation, S&P >4600, BTC ETF net inflows, stablecoin growth.
- Impact: BTC retests $120K+, ETH outperforms, majors/DeFi TVL higher.
- Analogs: Nov 2020 (macro dovish turn + ETF optimism)coindesk.
2. Base Case (60%)
- Triggers: Mixed macro, flat ETF flows, sticky inflation, no Fed pivot.
- Signposts: BTC range $100–120K, ETH lags, stablecoin issuance flat.
- Impact: Consolidation; majors and DeFi mark time, alts underperform.
- Analogs: Q2 2023 (Fed pause, tepid flows).
3. Risk-Off (20%)
- Triggers: Hot US CPI, further ETF outflows, negative Fed tone, equity drawdown.
- Signposts: BTC < $100K, S&P < 4400, VIX > 22, stablecoin contraction.
- Impact: Broad crypto downside, DeFi TVL shrinks, majors underperform.
- Analogs: Q3 2022 (Fed hawkish pivot, risk-off selloff).
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov | US CPI (Oct) | US | 3.7% headline | Key risk event—soft print bullish for crypto | blog |
| 19 Nov | Fed Minutes | US | -- | Dovish tilt could spark rally | blog |
| 22 Nov | ECB Minutes | EU | -- | Policy tone for EU risk assets | blog |
| 06 Dec | US NFP (Nov) | US | 160k | Labor cooling could aid risk rally | blog |
| Ongoing | BTC/ETH ETF Flows | US | -- | Daily/weekly flows as risk barometer | blog |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Discrepancies: Where available, primary data (central banks, statistical agencies) was favored; crypto ETF flow data reconciled across Glassnode, Farside, and provider dashboards for accuracyblog. TVL and stablecoin flows based on public on-chain sources (Nansen, Dune), cross-checked with provider posts.
- Source quality: All macro data and asset levels referenced from official releases or top-tier newswires. Crypto-specific flows and price action referenced to on-chain analytics, major exchange dashboards, and ETF provider releases. Data as of 03 Nov 2025.