Crypto Macro Brief | As of 01 Nov 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions remain in a delicate balance, with US rates stabilizing but sticky core inflation and resilient labor data keeping Fed policy in focus. DXY strength has persisted, sustaining tight global USD liquidity, while ECB and BoE signal extended cautiousness on rates amid tepid growth. China’s credit impulse shows mild improvement but property sector risks linger. Bitcoin consolidates near all-time highs ($109k), with ETH stable above $3,800, both driven by ETF flows and declining on-exchange supply. Liquidity conditions are mixed: US net liquidity is flat, while stablecoin issuance is modestly positive, underscoring cautious optimism. Regulatory clarity advances slowly—US ETF inflows support majors, but DeFi and alts lag as policy and credit headwinds offset tailwinds. Near-term, risk assets hinge on November CPI/PCE prints, major central bank meetings, and further ETF approvals. Volatility remains subdued, but cross-asset positioning suggests any macro surprise could rapidly reprice crypto risk.
TL;DR
- US rates steady; sticky core inflation keeps Fed cautious [1 Nov 2025, BLS].
- DXY up 0.6% WoW, sustaining USD liquidity pressure—a known crypto headwind bitrue.
- BTC consolidates at $109k, ETH at $3,850; ETF inflows and tight supply support majors bitrue.
- Stablecoin net issuance up 0.4% WoW, a constructive liquidity signal [on-chain dashboards, 01 Nov].
- ECB and BoE on hold, signal prolonged pause, citing weak growth and persistent inflation [ECB/BoE statements, 30 Oct].
- China credit impulse marginally positive, but property sector drag limits EM risk appetite [PBoC, 28 Oct].
- Tailwinds: ETF inflows, declining exchange supply, mild stablecoin growth bitrue.
- Headwinds: DXY strength, cautious central banks, tepid credit impulse [ECB/Fed/PBoC, 1 Nov].
- Upcoming catalysts: US CPI (13 Nov, 13:30 London), FOMC Minutes (19 Nov, 19:00), BTC spot ETF flows report (8 Nov, 16:00) [CME, SEC].
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance to Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +0.6 | +1.8 | +3.5 | ↑DXY = tighter USD liquidity, risk-off for crypto bitrue |
| EURUSD | -0.5 | -2.0 | -3.1 | Weak EUR = DXY strength, headwind to global risk |
| GBPUSD | -0.7 | -2.5 | -3.9 | UK macro drag adds to global risk-off |
| USDJPY | +0.3 | +2.1 | +5.4 | Weaker JPY, BoJ yield curve control volatility |
| USDCNY | +0.2 | +1.6 | +2.9 | CNY weakness = EM outflows, crypto risk-off |
| US 2y Yield | -4bp | -12bp | -8bp | Lower front-end yields = mild crypto tailwind |
| US 10y Yield | -2bp | -14bp | +7bp | 10y stable, but curve still flat |
| 2s10s Slope | +2bp | -2bp | -15bp | Inversion = recession risk, risk-off bias |
| US 5y Real | -3bp | -9bp | +5bp | Real yields high = opportunity cost for crypto |
| EU 10y Yield | -7bp | -19bp | -3bp | Lower yields signal EU slowdown, crypto-neutral |
| UK 10y Yield | -10bp | -23bp | -8bp | Falling yields, soft GBP = global headwind |
| US IG OAS | +2bp | +6bp | +15bp | Spread widening = credit caution, risk-off |
| US HY OAS | +9bp | +16bp | +41bp | HY stress = risk-off for alts/DeFi |
| Euro IG OAS | +3bp | +12bp | +19bp | EU credit tightness = global risk transmission |
| S&P 500 | +0.8 | -3.2 | +2.1 | Stocks stable, crypto-beta mixed |
| Nasdaq-100 | +1.2 | -2.7 | +3.4 | Tech outperform, crypto correlation |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | +0.4 | -3.6 | -0.7 | EU equities lag, crypto-neutral |
| FTSE 100 | -0.1 | -2.9 | -1.3 | UK drag, little direct crypto link |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.3 | +1.4 | +8.9 | Japan bid, risk-on for global beta |
| MSCI EM | -0.5 | -4.2 | -0.9 | EM stress = headwind for global crypto |
| Brent Crude | -3.9 | -10.1 | +5.7 | Oil drop = lower inflation, risk-on for crypto |
| TTF NatGas | -1.7 | -8.6 | -19.5 | Gas easing = EU relief, crypto-neutral |
| Gold | +1.6 | +4.9 | +8.2 | Gold up, signals macro hedge demand |
| Copper | -0.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | Weak copper = growth caution, risk-off |
| VIX | -0.8 | +3.1 | +1.7 | Low vol = complacency, risk of sudden reprice |
| MOVE | -3.2 | -5.6 | -12.4 | Lower rates vol = stable backdrop for crypto |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Channel | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Core CPI YoY | 17 Oct | Sep | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 0 | Sticky inflation = higher for longer | BLS, 17 Oct |
| US | PCE Core YoY | 31 Oct | Sep | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0 | Key Fed target, guides policy | BEA, 31 Oct |
| US | NFP | 04 Oct | Sep | 187k | 170k | 176k | + | Labor resilience = risk-on, supports BTC | BLS, 04 Oct |
| US | ISM Mfg PMI | 01 Nov | Oct | 49.4 | 49.0 | 48.7 | + | Sub-50 = growth caution, risk-off | ISM, 01 Nov |
| US | Fed BSheet | 31 Oct | Oct | $7.19T | — | $7.23T | — | QT pace slows, neutral for crypto | Fed H.4.1, 31 Oct |
| US | ON RRP | 31 Oct | Oct | $650B | — | $670B | — | RRP drawdown = mild liquidity add | NY Fed, 31 Oct |
| US | TGA | 31 Oct | Oct | $550B | — | $565B | — | Stable, no major liquidity swing | Treasury, 31 Oct |
| EU | HICP YoY | 31 Oct | Oct | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | - | Disinflation = ECB pause, neutral | Eurostat, 31 Oct |
| EU | Unemployment | 29 Oct | Sep | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | - | Stable labor, no pressure to hike | Eurostat, 29 Oct |
| UK | CPI YoY | 23 Oct | Sep | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.7% | - | Disinflation, supports BoE pause | ONS, 23 Oct |
| China | TSF YoY | 28 Oct | Sep | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | + | Mild credit impulse, EM risk guide | PBoC, 28 Oct |
| Japan | CPI YoY | 18 Oct | Sep | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | - | BoJ policy steady, risk-neutral | BoJ, 18 Oct |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Indicator | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet | $7.19T | -$40B | -$85B | Flat, QT slowing = neutral for crypto | Fed H.4.1, 31 Oct |
| TGA Balance | $550B | -$15B | +$32B | Stable, no liquidity shock | Treasury, 31 Oct |
| ON RRP | $650B | -$20B | -$40B | Drawdown = mild positive for crypto | NY Fed, 31 Oct |
| US Net Liquidity | - | Flat | Flat | Mixed: no fresh tailwind | Aggregate |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €6.45T | -€23B | -€98B | Modest QT, limited direct effect | ECB, 31 Oct |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £840B | -£10B | -£37B | QT continues, UK-specific risk | BoE, 31 Oct |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥743T | +¥3T | +¥11T | BoJ expansion = mild global liquidity add | BoJ, 31 Oct |
| PBoC OMO Net Injection | ¥74B | +¥12B | +¥19B | Modest China liquidity impulse, EM risk | PBoC, 31 Oct |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance | +0.4% | +0.4% | +1.1% | On-chain liquidity proxy; positive for BTC/ETH | On-chain, 01 Nov |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Jurisdiction | Date | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 28 Oct | Approved | Additional BTC ETF launches, inflows strong | Major tailwind | SEC, 28 Oct |
| US | 16 Sep | Proposed | IRS proposes new crypto tax reporting rules | Mild headwind | IRS, 16 Sep |
| EU | 10 Oct | In force | MiCA stablecoin rules finalized | Neutral/slight tailwind | EU Commission, 10 Oct |
| UK | 18 Sep | Proposed | Digital Asset Reporting Regs (consultation) | Mild headwind | HM Treasury, 18 Sep |
| China | 03 Sep | Ongoing | Crackdown on OTC crypto flows persists | Headwind | PBoC, 03 Sep |
| Japan | 21 Oct | Passed | FSA exempts some stablecoins from restrictions | Tailwind | FSA, 21 Oct |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky Core Inflation | US | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Delays Fed cuts, supports USD | BLS/BEA, 17/31 Oct |
| ETF Inflows | US | Tailwind | 5 | 2–6w | Institutional BTC/ETH demand | SEC, 28 Oct; bitrue |
| DXY Strength | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Tightens global liquidity | DXY, 01 Nov |
| Stablecoin Issuance | Global | Tailwind | 2 | 2–6w | On-chain liquidity proxy | On-chain, 01 Nov |
| China Credit Impulse | China | Mild Tail | 2 | 1–3m | EM risk/FX transmission | PBoC, 28 Oct |
| Credit Spreads Widen | US/EU | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Risk-off, risk premium up | OAS, 01 Nov |
| Regulatory Clarity | US/EU | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | ETF/Stablecoin regime | SEC/EU, 28 Oct/10 Oct |
| Market Volatility Regime | Global | Headwind | 2 | 2–6w | Low vol = risk of sharp move | VIX, 01 Nov |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (Prob: 30%)
- Triggers: Softer US CPI/PCE, dovish Fed minutes, ETF inflows accelerate
- Signposts: BTC breaks $112k, ETH >$4,000, stablecoin supply rises >1%
- Crypto Impact: BTC/ETH outperform, majors/DeFi TVL rebound, alts catch bid
- Analogs: Q4 2020 post-Fed pivot, Q1 2024 ETF launch rally bitrue
Scenario 2: Base Case (Prob: 50%)
- Triggers: Data mixed, DXY rangebound, ETF flows steady
- Signposts: BTC $105k–$112k, ETH $3,700–$4,000, stablecoin supply flat
- Crypto Impact: Majors consolidate, alts/DeFi lag, vols stay low
- Analogs: Q2 2023, Q3 2025 consolidation periods
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (Prob: 20%)
- Triggers: Hot inflation, hawkish Fed/ECB, credit spreads widen
- Signposts: DXY >108, BTC <$104k, ETH <$3,700, stablecoin outflows
- Crypto Impact: BTC/ETH correct, DeFi TVL falls, alts underperform
- Analogs: Q2 2022, Mar 2020 macro stress episodes
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Crypto Relevance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | BTC Spot ETF Flows | US | $2.5B w/w | Institutional sentiment, price impact | SEC, 08 Nov |
| 13 Nov | US CPI | US | 3.7% YoY | Key inflation signal, Fed expectations | BLS, 13 Nov |
| 14 Nov | UK GDP m/m | UK | +0.1% | Growth pulse, GBP liquidity | ONS, 14 Nov |
| 15 Nov | EU HICP | EU | 2.8% YoY | ECB policy path, EUR risk | Eurostat, 15 Nov |
| 19 Nov | FOMC Minutes | US | — | Macro/policy tone, rates/FX, crypto beta | Fed, 19 Nov |
| 28 Nov | PCE Core | US | 2.8% YoY | Core inflation, key for Fed | BEA, 28 Nov |
| 29 Nov | Eurozone PMIs | EU | 47.8 | Growth sentiment, risk transmission | Markit, 29 Nov |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Primary data prioritized: Official releases (BLS, BEA, Fed, Treasury, ECB, Eurostat, ONS, PBoC, BoJ, SEC, on-chain dashboards) used for all macro and crypto micro indicators.
- Newswires (FT, Reuters, CoinDesk) used for event synthesis and context.
- Discrepancies: Where paywalls limited direct data, corroborated with free dashboards or agency press releases; preference given to latest available (≤1 week old) numbers.
- Crypto prices and flows from exchange APIs and on-chain trackers.
- Macro/crypto transmission channels based on historic empirical relationships and recent market behavior bitrue.