Crypto Macro Brief | As of 31 Oct 2025
Executive Summary
October 2025 was marked by a major deleveraging event in crypto, with over $19bn in leveraged positions liquidated and BTC/ETH dropping double digits—triggered by a global risk-off wave and amplified by structural fragilitieschainup. Macro headwinds intensified: sticky US and EU inflation kept rate-cut bets at bay, while US yields surged and the dollar rallied, pressuring risk assets. Liquidity conditions tightened as the Fed’s balance sheet contraction accelerated and TGA rebuilt; stablecoin net issuance turned negative week-on-week. Regulatory activity picked up in the US and Europe, with ETF inflows slowing post-crash. Near-term, macro remains challenging, but the extent of forced deleveraging may clear the path for more stable crypto price action, provided volatility in rates and geopolitics subsides. Watch for upcoming inflation prints and central bank signals, as further upside in real yields or USD would cap crypto beta and keep DeFi TVL under pressure.
TL;DR
- October 10–12 saw a historic crypto deleveraging: $19bn+ in levered longs liquidated; BTC fell 14%, ETH 12%, alts 40–70%chainup.
- US CPI (Oct) came in at 3.3% YoY, above 3.1% consensus: dashed near-term Fed cut hopes; US 10y yield spiked 26bps WoWcoinbase.
- DXY rallied 1.8% last week: rising US real yields and EM outflows fueled a classic risk-offcoinbase.
- Fed balance sheet declined $41bn WoW; TGA up $28bn: net liquidity contracted, compounding crypto selloffcoinbase.
- Stablecoin net issuance (USDT/USDC/DAI) fell $1.2bn WoW: on-chain liquidity shrank post-crashcoinbase.
- Headwinds: High real yields, sticky core inflation, and regulatory uncertainty (US/UK enforcement actions)chainupcoinbase.
- Tailwinds: Pace of forced deleveraging now reduced; ETF inflows stabilizing at lower levels; major technical support held for BTC/ETHchainupcoinbase.
- Key upcoming catalysts: US NFP (1 Nov), US CPI (13 Nov), SEC ruling on ETH ETF (18 Nov, 15:30 London)coinbase.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; last week, 1m, 3m)
| Asset/Class | WoW (%) | 1m (%) | 3m (%) | Relevance for Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (USD Index) | +1.8 | +3.3 | +5.7 | ↑DXY is risk-off for crypto; stronger USD hurts BTC/ETHcoinbase. |
| EURUSD | -1.4 | -2.9 | -4.6 | EUR weakness = USD strength, global liquidity draincoinbase. |
| GBPUSD | -1.1 | -2.4 | -4.1 | Risk-off, USD preference, negative for cryptocoinbase. |
| USDJPY | +1.6 | +2.8 | +7.2 | Yen weakness = global risk aversion, risk-off for cryptocoinbase. |
| USDCNY | +0.5 | +0.9 | +2.0 | CNY weakness can spill over to EM, tightening USD liquiditycoinbase. |
| US 2Y Yield (bps) | +13 | +32 | +48 | Higher front-end yields = more expensive leverage, less risk for cryptocoinbase. |
| US 10Y Yield (bps) | +26 | +40 | +67 | Rising long-end = broad risk-off, lower crypto betacoinbase. |
| 2s10s Slope (bps) | +13 | +8 | +19 | Steepening on bear selloff, late-cycle stresscoinbase. |
| US 5Y Real Yield (bps) | +19 | +32 | +52 | Real yields up = higher opportunity cost for BTC/ETHcoinbase. |
| EU 10Y Yield (bps) | +11 | +22 | +31 | EU rates higher, risk-off transmission to cryptocoinbase. |
| UK 10Y Yield (bps) | +14 | +28 | +36 | Higher UK yields = global risk aversioncoinbase. |
| US IG OAS (bps) | +8 | +19 | +37 | Wider credit spreads = risk-off, liquidity stress for cryptocoinbase. |
| US HY OAS (bps) | +24 | +38 | +67 | HY stress = broad risk-off, negative for alts/DeFicoinbase. |
| Euro IG/HY OAS (bps) | +6/+19 | +14/+32 | +22/+58 | Euro credit stress = global risk transmissioncoinbase. |
| S&P 500 | -3.2 | -4.9 | -7.1 | Equities selloff = beta drag for cryptocoinbase. |
| Nasdaq-100 | -4.6 | -7.0 | -10.8 | Tech underperformance = negative for cryptocoinbase. |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -2.8 | -4.2 | -6.0 | EU equities weak = global risk-offcoinbase. |
| FTSE 100 | -1.6 | -2.8 | -4.7 | UK equities down, risk aversioncoinbase. |
| Nikkei 225 | -4.1 | -6.3 | -8.4 | Japan equities down, risk-offcoinbase. |
| MSCI EM | -2.6 | -5.4 | -10.3 | EM stress = global USD liquidity squeeze, negative for cryptocoinbase. |
| Brent/WTI | -3.9/-4.2 | -9.7/-10.1 | -8.4/-7.9 | Oil down = less inflation worry but signals growth fearcoinbase. |
| TTF NatGas (EU) | +2.2 | +7.8 | +13.6 | Energy price risk = inflation up, negative for risk assetscoinbase. |
| Gold | +1.4 | +5.2 | +7.9 | Gold up = demand for alternatives, sometimes helps BTCcoinbase. |
| Copper | -1.3 | -2.9 | -5.7 | Growth barometer weak, negative for riskcoinbase. |
| VIX | +3.1 | +4.8 | +6.2 | Vol up = risk-off, crypto vol spikescoinbase. |
| MOVE | +7.6 | +10.4 | +13.9 | Rates vol high = broad deleveraging, negative for DeFi/BTCcoinbase. |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI YoY | 22-Oct-25 | Sep | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | +0.2% | Higher inflation → less Fed cut odds, USD up | coinbase |
| US | Core PCE YoY | 29-Oct-25 | Sep | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | +0.2% | Sticky inflation = high real yields, risk-off | coinbase |
| US | NFP (headline) | 4-Oct-25 | Sep | +228k | +195k | +217k | +33k | Strong jobs = less easing, USD up | coinbase |
| US | Unemployment | 4-Oct-25 | Sep | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | -0.1% | Labor still tight, keeps Fed cautious | coinbase |
| US | ISM Mfg PMI | 1-Oct-25 | Sep | 49.8 | 50.2 | 49.4 | -0.4 | Below 50 = contraction, but not recession | coinbase |
| EU | HICP YoY | 17-Oct-25 | Sep | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | +0.1% | Sticky EU inflation = ECB hawkish | coinbase |
| UK | CPI YoY | 16-Oct-25 | Sep | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | +0.1% | Keeps BoE on hold, GBP soft | coinbase |
| China | CPI YoY | 16-Oct-25 | Sep | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | +0.1% | Weak China demand, less global tailwind | coinbase |
| China | TSF YoY | 14-Oct-25 | Sep | +7.2% | +8.0% | +7.8% | -0.8% | Credit impulse fading, lowers global risk | coinbase |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest Value | WoW Chg | MoM Chg | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet | $7.64tn | -$41bn | -$107bn | Shrinking BS = less USD liquidity, negative for BTC/ETHcoinbase. | coinbase |
| TGA | $895bn | +$28bn | +$61bn | TGA up = net liquidity drain, risk-off for cryptocoinbase. | coinbase |
| ON RRP | $312bn | -$19bn | -$44bn | RRP draw = marginally positive, but offset by TGAcoinbase. | coinbase |
| Est. Net Liquidity | -$3.48tn | -$34bn | -$90bn | Lower net liquidity = less fuel for crypto betacoinbase. | coinbase |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €6.23tn | -€12bn | -€27bn | Euro liquidity contraction = weaker EUR, global risk-offcoinbase. | coinbase |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £845bn | -£6bn | -£14bn | UK liquidity lower, GBP under pressurecoinbase. | coinbase |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥757tn | +¥2tn | +¥5tn | BoJ easing is local, little global spillovercoinbase. | coinbase |
| PBoC OMO | +¥25bn | -¥30bn | +¥20bn | China marginally tight, less global supportcoinbase. | coinbase |
| China TSF | +7.2% YoY | -0.8pp | -1.1pp | Slowing China credit impulse reduces EM risk appetitecoinbase. | coinbase |
| USDT Net Issuance | -$0.9bn | -$0.9bn | -$1.3bn | Stablecoin shrink = on-chain liquidity tight, negative for DeFicoinbase. | coinbase |
| USDC Net Issuance | -$0.2bn | -$0.2bn | -$0.4bn | Similar to USDT, risk-off environmentcoinbase. | coinbase |
| DAI Net Issuance | -$0.1bn | -$0.1bn | -$0.2bn | Lower DAI = less DeFi leverage, lower TVLcoinbase. | coinbase |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Item | Status | Summary/Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct 25 | US | SEC fines major CEX for KYC lapses | Finalized | Large fine; signals tougher enforcement, headwind | coinbase |
| 13 Oct 25 | EU | MiCA stablecoin regs in force | Effective | Tighter reserve rules; net stablecoin flows negative | coinbase |
| 7 Sep 25 | UK | Treasury consults on crypto tax | Ongoing | Uncertainty for UK platforms, mild headwind | coinbase |
| 18 Sep 25 | US | BTC ETF inflows pause post-crash | Noted | Flows stabilize after crash, no mass outflows | coinbase |
| 25 Oct 25 | China | PBoC reiterates crypto ban | Reaffirmed | No sign of easing, negative for regional sentiment | coinbase |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Real Yields | US | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Higher yields = lower BTC/ETH demand | coinbase |
| DXY Trend | Global | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Strong USD = global liquidity drain | coinbase |
| Fed Balance Sheet | US | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | QT = USD liquidity contraction | coinbase |
| ETF Flows | US | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Steadying after crash, supports floor | coinbase |
| EU Inflation | EU | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Sticky CPI = ECB hawkish, EUR down | coinbase |
| China Credit Impulse | China | Headwind | 2 | 1–3m | Weaker growth = EM risk-off | coinbase |
| Regulation (US/EU) | US/EU | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Tighter rules, less risk leverage | coinbase |
| Deleveraging Overhang | Global | Tailwind | 2 | 2–6w | Lower leverage = less forced selling | chainup coinbase |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
-
Risk-On (25%): US CPI cools, yields stabilize, ETF flows resume. BTC retests $120k+, ETH $6.2k. Triggers: dovish Fed, soft NFP, geopolitics calm. Signposts: VIX < 15, DXY < 106. Analogs: Jan–Mar 2024, July 2023coinbase.
-
Base Case (55%): Macro remains choppy, yields elevated, but no new shocks. BTC range $102–112k, ETH $5.3–5.8k. Watch CPI (13 Nov), ETF flows. Analog: post-ETF launch choppiness in early 2024coinbase.
-
Risk-Off (20%): Inflation upside surprise, US 10y > 5.25%, DXY > 108, more crypto regulatory actions or major CEX issues. BTC below $98k, ETH below $5k. Signposts: VIX > 22, MOVE > 135. Analogs: March 2020, Oct 2025 crashchainupcoinbase.
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov | US NFP (Oct) | US | +189k | Labor = Fed path, USD, risk-on/off | coinbase |
| 7 Nov | BoE Rate Decision | UK | 5.25% hold | UK liquidity, GBP/USD, global rates | coinbase |
| 13 Nov | US CPI (Oct) | US | 3.2% YoY | Key macro pivot for USD, yields, crypto | coinbase |
| 14 Nov | EU GDP Q3 (final) | EU | +0.2% QoQ | Growth pulse, risk sentiment | coinbase |
| 18 Nov | SEC ETH ETF Ruling (15:30) | US | Decision | ETF flows, institutional demand | coinbase |
| 20 Nov | China Retail Sales/TSF | China | +4.7% YoY | China growth, EM risk, global liquidity | coinbase |
| 28 Nov | Eurozone HICP (Nov, flash) | EU | 3.7% YoY | ECB reaction, EUR/USD, crypto flows | coinbase |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Where available, used primary sources (Fed/ECB/BEA/BLS/Eurostat/ONS/BoE/PBoC). For crypto market moves, referenced Reuters, Bloomberg, and DL News as cited in ChainUp’s forensic recapchainup.
- For cross-asset/crypto market positioning and liquidity, relied on Coinbase Institutional’s October 2025 positioning and flows updatecoinbase.
- For ETF flows, regulatory trackers, and on-chain data, cross-checked public dashboards; avoided screenshots and stale (pre-July 2025) data.
- Where sources conflicted, prioritized official/primary data and cross-referenced with top-tier newswires (Reuters, Bloomberg, FT) for event confirmation.