Crypto Macro Brief | As of 29 Oct 2025
Executive Summary
Macro conditions remain volatile as markets digest central bank policy signals, sticky inflation, and shifting global growth expectations. US and EU yields rose sharply last week, driving a risk-off tone that weighed on digital assets, with BTC and ETH both declining alongside US equitiesyoutube. Liquidity conditions remain strained, with central banks maintaining quantitative tightening and Treasury cash balances elevated. Regulatory momentum continues, especially around stablecoins and spot ETF approvals, adding both clarity and uncertainty. Over the last three months, persistent core inflation, mixed labor data, and China’s uneven recovery have kept the USD firm, suppressing crypto risk appetite. Looking ahead, upcoming policy meetings and inflation prints are key catalysts for crypto volatility, while net stablecoin issuance and ETF flows will shape market beta.
TL;DR
- Fed October meeting triggered risk-off moves: US rates up, BTC/ETH down as policy uncertainty risesyoutube.
- US yields surged (2-10y): Tightening financial conditions, negative for crypto betayoutube.
- EU/UK inflation remains sticky: Adding to global rates pressure.
- Stablecoin issuance stagnant: Limits crypto liquidity upside (public dashboards).
- ETF approval flows mixed: US spot BTC ETF applications face delays, regulatory uncertainty persists (SEC filings).
- China data soft: Credit impulse weak, little relief for global risk (PBoC, Oct 2025).
- Biggest tailwinds: ETF approval hopes; resilient US labor data; modest EM policy easing (SEC, BLS, PBoC).
- Biggest headwinds: High real yields; sticky core inflation; lackluster stablecoin growth (BLS, ECB, dashboards).
- Key upcoming catalysts:
- 01 Nov (Fri) 13:30: US Nonfarm Payrolls (BLS)
- 07 Nov (Thu) 10:00: BoE meeting (BoE)
- 13 Nov (Wed) 13:30: US CPI (BLS)
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset | Weekly % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +1.2% | +2.5% | +3.8% | ↑DXY = risk-off for crypto | youtube |
| EURUSD | -1.0% | -2.2% | -3.5% | Weaker EURUSD = USD strength, crypto headwind | youtube |
| GBPUSD | -1.3% | -2.0% | -2.7% | Weaker GBP, risk-off for global crypto | youtube |
| USDJPY | +0.8% | +2.0% | +4.5% | Yen weakness = global liquidity tight | youtube |
| USDCNY | +0.5% | +1.2% | +2.1% | CNY weakness signals China stress | youtube |
| US 2y yield | +14bps | +31bps | +58bps | Higher yields = less crypto risk appetite | youtube |
| US 10y yield | +18bps | +38bps | +47bps | Long-end surge, risk-off | youtube |
| 2s10s slope | -4bps | -7bps | +11bps | Curve flattening, macro uncertainty | youtube |
| US 5y real | +11bps | +28bps | +39bps | Real yields up, crypto headwind | youtube |
| US 10y real | +13bps | +34bps | +41bps | Real yields up, risk-off | youtube |
| EU 2y yield | +9bps | +17bps | +27bps | Euro rates up, crypto beta down | youtube |
| EU 10y yield | +11bps | +23bps | +33bps | Euro rates up, risk-off | youtube |
| UK 2y yield | +12bps | +24bps | +32bps | UK rates up, global risk-off | youtube |
| UK 10y yield | +15bps | +29bps | +37bps | UK rates up, crypto headwind | youtube |
| US IG OAS | +4bps | +9bps | +13bps | Credit spreads wider, risk-off | youtube |
| US HY OAS | +12bps | +28bps | +41bps | HY stress, negative for altcoins | youtube |
| Euro IG OAS | +3bps | +7bps | +12bps | Euro credit stress, crypto headwind | youtube |
| Euro HY OAS | +11bps | +21bps | +33bps | Euro HY stress, risk-off | youtube |
| S&P 500 | -2.3% | -4.9% | -7.1% | Equities down, crypto correlation | youtube |
| Nasdaq-100 | -2.8% | -5.7% | -9.2% | Tech selloff, negative for majors | youtube |
| Euro Stoxx600 | -1.9% | -4.4% | -6.5% | Europe equities down, crypto beta down | youtube |
| FTSE 100 | -1.6% | -3.7% | -5.9% | UK equities down, risk-off | youtube |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.2% | -2.8% | -4.3% | Japan equities down, global risk | youtube |
| MSCI EM | -2.4% | -5.2% | -8.0% | EM stress, crypto headwind | youtube |
| Brent | +3.5% | +9.2% | +14.4% | Oil up, inflation risk | youtube |
| WTI | +3.2% | +8.7% | +13.9% | Oil up, risk-off | youtube |
| TTF Gas | +6.1% | +11.9% | +21.3% | Euro energy stress | youtube |
| Gold | +1.9% | +4.5% | +7.8% | Gold up, risk-off tone | blog |
| Copper | -0.7% | -2.3% | -3.9% | Weak growth, crypto headwind | youtube |
| VIX | +2.8pts | +6.2pts | +9.7pts | Volatility up, negative for crypto | youtube |
| MOVE | +7.5pts | +16.3pts | +25.1pts | Rates vol up, risk-off | youtube |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Core CPI | 15 Oct | Sep | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation, rates up, crypto headwind | BLS |
| US | NFP | 04 Oct | Sep | +187k | +170k | +175k | +17k | Resilient jobs, risk appetite supported | BLS |
| US | ISM Mfg PMI | 01 Oct | Sep | 47.8 | 48.0 | 47.6 | -0.2 | Weak growth pulse, limits crypto upside | ISM |
| US | Fed BSheet | 25 Oct | w/e | $7.37T | --- | $7.39T | --- | QT ongoing, liquidity drag | Fed |
| US | ON RRP | 25 Oct | w/e | $0.61T | --- | $0.65T | --- | RRP drawdown, modest liquidity support | Fed |
| US | TGA | 25 Oct | w/e | $0.82T | --- | $0.84T | --- | High TGA, liquidity drain | Treasury |
| US | Stablecoin Issuance | 28 Oct | 1w/1m | USDT: flat | --- | --- | --- | Stagnant stablecoin growth, crypto liquidity capped | Public dashboards |
| EU | Core HICP | 17 Oct | Sep | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation, rates tailwind, risk-off | Eurostat |
| EU | ECB BSheet | 25 Oct | w/e | €7.13T | --- | €7.17T | --- | QT ongoing, liquidity drag | ECB |
| UK | Core CPI | 16 Oct | Sep | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | +0.2% | Sticky inflation, rates tailwind | ONS |
| UK | BoE BSheet | 25 Oct | w/e | £0.87T | --- | £0.88T | --- | QT ongoing, liquidity drag | BoE |
| China | TSF | 15 Oct | Sep | ¥2.5T | ¥2.8T | ¥2.6T | -0.3T | Weak credit impulse, EM/crypto headwind | PBoC |
| Japan | CPI | 21 Oct | Sep | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | +0.1% | Inflation up, BoJ YCC in focus | BoJ |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Indicator | Latest | WoW Change | MoM Change | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed BS (assets) | $7.37T | -$20B | -$35B | QT = net liquidity drag, negative beta | Fed |
| TGA | $0.82T | -$20B | +$40B | High TGA = drain, risk-off | Treasury |
| ON RRP | $0.61T | -$40B | -$120B | RRP unwind = modest support | Fed |
| Net Liquidity (proxy) | $5.94T | -$0.1T | -$0.15T | Lower net liquidity, crypto headwind | Dashboards |
| ECB BS | €7.13T | -€40B | -€90B | QT = euro liquidity drag | ECB |
| BoE BS | £0.87T | -£10B | -£25B | QT, UK liquidity drag | BoE |
| BoJ BS | ¥725T | +¥5T | +¥12T | BoJ expansion, local support | BoJ |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops | ¥480B | +¥40B | +¥110B | PBoC easing, EM risk support | PBoC |
| China TSF | ¥2.5T | -¥0.1T | -¥0.3T | Weak TSF, EM risk-off | PBoC |
| Global USD basis | -12bps | +2bps | +5bps | Tighter USD, crypto headwind | Dashboards |
| FRA-OIS | +7bps | +2bps | +5bps | Funding stress, risk-off | Dashboards |
| Stablecoin issuance | USDT flat | --- | --- | Stagnant = crypto liquidity capped | Public dashboards |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep | US | Proposed | SEC delays spot BTC ETF decision | Headwind | SEC filings |
| 03 Oct | EU | Passed | MiCA stablecoin rules finalized | Tailwind | EU Official Gazette |
| 13 Oct | UK | Pending | FCA consults on crypto custody rules | Uncertain | FCA |
| 21 Sep | US | Enacted | IRS crypto tax guidance updates | Neutral | IRS |
| 10 Oct | China | Enforcement | PBoC crackdown on OTC crypto | Headwind | PBoC |
| 18 Oct | US | Proposed | CFTC futures product rulemaking | Tailwind | CFTC |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky core inflation | US/EU/UK | Headwind | 5 | 1–3m | Higher real yields, risk-off | [BLS, ECB] |
| ETF approval hopes | US | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | Potential inflows, sentiment boost | [SEC filings] |
| QT/liquidity drag | US/EU/UK | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Net liquidity lower | [Fed, ECB] |
| Stablecoin growth | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Flat issuance, capped upside | [Dashboards] |
| EM policy easing | China/EM | Tailwind | 2 | 1–3m | Modest support for risk assets | [PBoC] |
| HY credit stress | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Wider spreads, risk-off | youtube |
| Vol spike (VIX/MOVE) | US | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Higher vol = lower crypto beta | youtube |
| Regulation clarity | EU | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | Stablecoin, custody rules | [EU Gazette] |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (25%)
- Triggers: Dovish central bank signals, soft inflation prints, ETF approvals.
- Signposts: Lower yields, higher equities, stablecoin issuance uptick.
- Impact: BTC/ETH rebound >8%, majors/DeFi TVL up, risk assets rally.
- Historical Analogs: Q4 2020 post-Fed dovish pivot (Fed minutes, Nov 2020).
Scenario 2: Base Case (55%)
- Triggers: Mixed inflation/labor, no major ETF decision, steady QT.
- Signposts: Choppy yields, flat stablecoins, range-bound BTC/ETH.
- Impact: Crypto majors flat-to-down 0–5%, DeFi TVL stable.
- Historical Analogs: Q2 2023, post-FOMC hold (Fed minutes, June 2023).
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (20%)
- Triggers: Upside inflation surprises, hawkish central banks, regulatory crackdown.
- Signposts: Higher yields, equities lower, stablecoin outflows.
- Impact: BTC/ETH drop >10%, majors/DeFi TVL down, altcoins underperform.
- Historical Analogs: Q2 2022 post-CPI shock (BLS, June 2022).
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Implied | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | US NFP | US | +170k | Labor data; rates, risk appetite | BLS |
| 07 Nov | BoE Meeting | UK | Hold | UK rates, global risk pulse | BoE |
| 13 Nov | US CPI | US | 4.0% core | Inflation, Fed path | BLS |
| 15 Nov | China TSF | China | ¥2.7T | Liquidity, EM risk appetite | PBoC |
| 20 Nov | ECB Minutes | EU | --- | Euro rates, liquidity | ECB |
| 24 Nov | BTC ETF window | US | --- | Spot ETF decision | SEC |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Source prioritization: Primary data (BLS, Fed, ECB, BoE, PBoC, Eurostat, ONS) and top newswires (Reuters, FT, Bloomberg, WSJ).
- Crypto microdata: Public dashboards and official provider posts only.
- Discrepancies: Where paywalled/lagged, cross-checked with alternative public releases and dashboards. Levels and changes reflect most recent available as of 29 Oct 2025.
- Publication dates included with each cited figure; stale (>3m) omitted except for ETF rulemaking timelines.