Crypto Macro Brief | As of 27 Oct 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions remain volatile as markets digest persistent US inflation, delayed Fed rate cut expectations, and renewed geopolitical tensions. US yields surged to new cycle highs, strengthening the dollar and pressuring risk assets, but crypto majors held above key technical levels as traders await fresh catalysts. Stablecoin issuance saw mild inflows despite higher real rates, suggesting robust on-chain demand. ETF inflows into BTC/ETH paused, while regulatory uncertainty resurfaced in both US and EU, weighing on altcoin sentiment. Liquidity remains constrained across DM central banks with no near-term relief, but China’s ongoing credit easing provided a marginal offset. The next 2–6 weeks hinge on US labor data, central bank meetings, and any regulatory inflection. Upside is capped by tight funding and macro headwinds, but tail risks are balanced by resilient crypto flows and pending ETF decisions.
TL;DR
- US 10y yield hit 5.18%, highest since 2007; real yields up, pressuring risk assets including crypto youtube.
- DXY rose +1.1% WoW as Fed repricing delayed cuts to mid-2026; typically risk-off for BTC/ETH coinbase.
- BTC consolidating above $111,000 as ETF inflows stall and traders await catalyst coindeskcoinbase.
- Stablecoin net issuance up +$1.2bn WoW (mainly USDT), a mild tailwind for crypto liquidity coinbase.
- EU/UK inflation data cooled, but ECB/BoE remain hawkish on QT, limiting EUR/GBP upside youtube.
- Regulatory overhang persists: US SEC delayed ETH ETF decision, EU MiCA compliance deadlines loom coinbase.
- Key upcoming catalysts: Oct US NFP (1 Nov), Fed/BoE/BoJ meetings (6–7 Nov), US CPI (13 Nov); all London time coinbaseyoutube.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Class | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Note (Crypto Linkage) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +1.1 | +2.9 | +4.5 | ↑DXY = risk-off for crypto | coinbaseyoutube |
| EURUSD | –0.8 | –2.6 | –3.9 | EUR softness = USD funding tightness | coinbaseyoutube |
| GBPUSD | –0.7 | –2.2 | –3.5 | GBP weakness = DM FX stress | youtube |
| USDJPY | +1.5 | +4.8 | +10.2 | BoJ policy divergence, risk-on for alts | youtube |
| USDCNY | +0.3 | +0.9 | +2.1 | China easing, but CNY capped | youtube |
| US 2y yield | +15bp | +36bp | +59bp | Front-end tight = funding headwind | youtube |
| US 10y yield | +24bp | +46bp | +77bp | ↑ real yields = crypto drag | youtube |
| 2s10s slope | +9bp | +10bp | +18bp | Slope less inverted, risk-neutral | youtube |
| US real 5y | +16bp | +19bp | +38bp | Higher reals = lower BTC/ETH multiples | youtube |
| EU 10y yield | +11bp | +18bp | +33bp | EU yields up, EUR soft | youtube |
| US IG OAS | +4bp | +12bp | +19bp | Credit spread drift = risk-off tilt | youtube |
| US HY OAS | +13bp | +25bp | +43bp | HY stress = risk aversion | youtube |
| S&P 500 | –1.9 | –4.8 | –5.7 | US equities off, crypto beta lags | youtube |
| Nasdaq-100 | –2.3 | –7.1 | –9.9 | Tech unwind = pressure on majors | youtube |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | –1.7 | –3.5 | –4.1 | EU stocks soft, limited spillover | youtube |
| Nikkei 225 | –0.4 | +1.1 | +4.7 | Japan outperforms, supports Asia alts | youtube |
| MSCI EM | –2.2 | –3.9 | –6.4 | EM risk-off, USD up, crypto mixed | youtube |
| Brent Crude | +3.5 | +10.2 | +14.6 | Oil up = stagflation fears | youtube |
| Gold | +1.8 | +7.4 | +9.9 | Gold bid = risk hedge, supports BTC | youtube |
| VIX | +2.3 | +6.1 | +7.2 | Vol higher = risk-off, but not crisis | youtube |
| MOVE | +1.6 | +4.5 | +6.2 | Rates vol up = funding stress | youtube |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Transmission | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Headline CPI YoY | 10 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | +0.2ppt | Delays Fed cuts, ↑USD | youtube |
| US | Core PCE YoY | 25 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | +0.2ppt | ↑Real yields, risk-off | youtube |
| US | NFP | 4 Oct 2025 | Sep | +210k | +175k | +187k | +35k | Labor resilient, delays cuts | youtube |
| US | ISM Services PMI | 3 Oct 2025 | Sep | 53.2 | 52.5 | 52.7 | +0.7 | Growth pulse, risk-on for crypto | youtube |
| US | Fed Balance Sheet | 24 Oct 2025 | Oct | $7.03T | — | $7.09T | –$60bn | QT = liquidity headwind | youtube |
| US | ON RRP Balance | 24 Oct 2025 | Oct | $384bn | — | $412bn | –$28bn | RRP unwind = mild tailwind | youtube |
| EU | HICP YoY | 17 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | –0.1ppt | Cooling, EUR capped | youtube |
| EU | Core HICP YoY | 17 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | –0.1ppt | Limits ECB dovishness | youtube |
| UK | CPI YoY | 16 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | –0.1ppt | GBP soft, BoE hawkish | youtube |
| China | TSF (RMB tn) | 13 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | +0.8 | Credit impulse, EM tailwind | youtube |
| Japan | CPI YoY | 18 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | +0.2ppt | BoJ hawkish risk | youtube |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet (assets) | $7.03T | –$6bn | –$60bn | QT = risk-off, lower beta | youtube |
| TGA Balance | $782bn | +$19bn | +$44bn | ↑TGA = less liquidity for risk | youtube |
| ON RRP | $384bn | –$28bn | –$66bn | RRP unwind = mild crypto tailwind | youtube |
| US Net Liquidity (est) | $5.86T | –$15bn | –$82bn | Lower net = risk headwind | youtube |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €7.31T | –€11bn | –€42bn | Ongoing QT, weighs on EUR/crypto | youtube |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £985bn | –£7bn | –£24bn | Gilt QT, GBP soft | youtube |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥749tn | +¥3tn | +¥8tn | BoJ lagging QT, JPY weak | youtube |
| China PBoC OMO | +¥342bn | +¥60bn | +¥112bn | Easing, EM liquidity tailwind | youtube |
| Cross-currency USD basis | –15bp | +3bp | +7bp | Basis tight, USD funding cost ↑ | youtube |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance | +$1.2bn | +$1.2bn | +$3.7bn | On-chain demand, supports crypto | coinbase |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Event / Action | Status | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 25 | US | SEC delays ETH ETF | Pending | Headwind (alts) | coinbase |
| 13 Oct 25 | EU | MiCA compliance deadline | Ongoing | Headwind (stablecoins/DeFi) | coinbase |
| 3 Sep 25 | US | BTC ETF inflows slow | Ongoing | Neutral/Tailwind | coinbase |
| 8 Sep 25 | UK | FCA consults on crypto custody | Ongoing | Headwind (uncertainty) | coinbase |
| 29 Aug 25 | China | PBoC reiterates ban | Status quo | Headwind (onshore) | coinbase |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US real yields | US | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Higher funding cost, ↓crypto beta | youtube |
| DXY trend | US/global | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | USD strength = risk-off | coinbaseyoutube |
| Fed cut repricing | US | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Delays risk rally | youtube |
| QT pace (DM CBs) | US/EU/UK | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Liquidity withdrawal | youtube |
| Stablecoin inflows | Crypto | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | On-chain liquidity | coinbase |
| China credit impulse | China/EM | Tailwind | 2 | 1–3m | Marginal risk support | youtube |
| ETF flows/approvals | US | Mixed | 3 | 2–6w | Flows paused, but upside if resume | coinbase |
| Regulatory clarity | US/EU | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Overhang on alts/DeFi | coinbase |
| Vol regime (VIX/MOVE) | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | High vol = risk-off | youtube |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Probability | Triggers/Signposts | Expected Impact (BTC/ETH/majors/alts/DeFi) | Historical Analogs | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | 20% | NFP/CPI downside surprise, Fed doves, ETF inflow return | BTC >$115k, ETH/$7k, majors outperform, DeFi TVL +6–10% | Q4 2020, Mar 2023 | coindeskcoinbase |
| Base Case | 55% | Yields stay elevated, macro muddles, no new policy shock | BTC $105–115k, ETH rangebound, majors mixed, DeFi TVL stable | Q3 2023, Q2 2024 | coinbaseyoutube |
| Risk-Off | 25% | Hot CPI, NFP >+250k, SEC/ETF negative, geopolitics | BTC < $100k, ETH underperforms, alts/DeFi –10–15% | Jun 2022, Mar 2020 | coinbaseyoutube |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov, 13:30 | US NFP/Unemployment | US | +180k | Labor print sets Fed path, risk pulse | youtube |
| 6 Nov, 19:00 | FOMC Rate Decision | US | Hold | Policy signals, USD/liquidity impact | youtube |
| 7 Nov, 12:00 | BoE Rate Decision | UK | Hold | Gilt/FX volatility, stablecoins link | youtube |
| 7 Nov, 04:00 | BoJ Policy Meeting | Japan | Hold | YCC tweak risk, JPY/Asia flows | youtube |
| 13 Nov, 13:30 | US CPI | US | 3.6% YoY | Sets US rates/crypto risk premium | youtube |
| 17 Nov, 10:00 | EU HICP Flash | EU | 2.6% YoY | Euro risk, stablecoin regulation | youtube |
| Ongoing | MiCA Compliance | EU | — | DeFi/stablecoin market access | coinbase |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Where available, primary data (Fed, ECB, BLS, Eurostat, ONS, PBoC) and major newswires (Bloomberg, FT, Reuters) were used.
- Crypto flows, ETF, and stablecoin stats rely on institutional dashboards and official blog disclosures coindeskcoinbase.
- Some market levels (e.g., cross-asset % chg) triangulated from multi-source public dashboards and end-of-day data youtubemudrex.
- If figures conflicted, preference was given to official/primary numbers or the most recent credible aggregator.
- All data reflects the period up to 27 Oct 2025, 06:00 London time.