Crypto Macro Brief | As of 26 Oct 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions remain challenging for digital assets, with volatility and liquidity stress dominating the landscape. A historic $20B crypto market wipeout earlier in October has left sentiment fragile and technicals in repair modemorningstar. Bitcoin consolidates above $111,000, lacking a fresh catalyst and with major resistance near $112,000coindesk. Institutional activity remains robust, as Q3 saw record crypto derivatives volumes and open interest, particularly in ETH and SOL contractscmegroup. Macro headwinds include persistent US dollar strength, sticky inflation, and rising global yields, all tightening liquidity. Meanwhile, regulatory momentum on ETF approvals and stablecoin frameworks provides structural tailwinds, even as new enforcement actions and delays keep risk elevated. Looking ahead, key catalysts include US and EU inflation prints, major central bank meetings, and potential ETF-related flows. The risk/reward for crypto majors remains highly sensitive to cross-asset volatility, USD liquidity, and evolving policy signals.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin consolidates above $111,000 after October’s sharp drawdown; price action is range-bound as traders await a breakout triggercoindeskmorningstar.
- Historic $20B crypto market wipeout earlier this month has left sentiment fragile, with recovery requiring time and fresh catalystsmorningstaryoutube.
- Q3 set all-time records for crypto derivatives volume and institutional open interest, with ETH and SOL showing outsized gainscmegroup.
- US 10y yields rose above 5%, tightening global liquidity and weighing on risk assets, including cryptoyoutube.
- DXY remains elevated, contributing to risk-off dynamics for digital assetscoinbase.
- Stablecoin market cap holds near $300B, anchoring on-chain liquidity despite recent outflowsyouhodler.
- Major ETF decisions and US/European inflation prints in the next 2–3 weeks are key catalysts for cryptocmegroup.
- Tailwinds: Institutional demand, ETF regulatory progress, stablecoin frameworkscmegroupyouhodler. Headwinds: Rising real yields, dollar strength, lingering regulatory riskcoinbasemorningstar.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset / Index | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (USD Index) | +0.7 | +2.2 | +4.9 | ↑DXY typically risk-off for crypto |
| EURUSD | -0.5 | -2.1 | -4.5 | Weak EUR supports USD strength |
| GBPUSD | -0.6 | -1.8 | -4.1 | Risk-off, USD liquidity effect |
| USDJPY | +0.9 | +3.3 | +5.8 | BoJ policy, global carry trade |
| USDCNY | +0.3 | +1.1 | +2.7 | China growth & EM risk |
| US 2y yield | +12bp | +28bp | +57bp | ↑Yields tighten USD liquidity |
| US 10y yield | +18bp | +33bp | +62bp | Long-end volatility = risk-off |
| 2s10s slope | -6bp | -5bp | -5bp | Curve inversion = late cycle |
| US 5y real yield | +10bp | +26bp | +50bp | Higher real rates = crypto headwind |
| EU 2y/10y | +8bp/+13bp | +14bp/+19bp | +21bp/+31bp | EU yields up, weighs on EUR |
| US IG OAS | +5bp | +11bp | +18bp | Credit risk up, risk-off |
| US HY OAS | +13bp | +36bp | +61bp | Widening = stress for all risk |
| Euro IG/HY OAS | +4bp/+10bp | +12bp/+27bp | +21bp/+45bp | European credit risk rising |
| S&P 500 | -1.2 | -4.5 | -2.9 | Weak equities = less risk-on flow |
| Nasdaq-100 | -1.7 | -5.2 | -4.1 | Tech drawdown, beta to crypto |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.3 | -4.9 | -3.8 | EU risk sentiment |
| FTSE 100 | -0.8 | -3.6 | -2.5 | UK macro, global beta |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.6 | -2.1 | -0.9 | Japan flows, global carry |
| MSCI EM | -2.2 | -6.3 | -5.7 | EM stress = USD strength |
| Brent/WTI | -4.3/-4.7 | +0.8/+1.2 | +10.5/+11.1 | Energy volatility, inflation risk |
| TTF NatGas | +3.2 | +14.5 | +27.3 | Europe energy = macro volatility |
| Gold | +1.1 | +4.9 | +6.2 | Safe haven flows |
| Copper | -2.0 | -1.8 | -3.4 | Growth pulse proxy |
| VIX | +1.6 | +5.7 | +7.2 | ↑Vol = risk-off |
| MOVE | +2.3 | +8.5 | +10.4 | Rates vol = risk transmission |
Sources: CME, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, FT, as of Oct 25, 2025coindeskcmegroupyoutubecoinbase.
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Headline CPI | 10 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | +0.1% | Sticky inflation slows Fed cut odds, risk-off | youtubecoinbase |
| US | Core PCE | 24 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | +0.1% | Higher-for-longer rates, weighs on crypto | youtubecoinbase |
| US | NFP | 4 Oct 2025 | Sep | 179k | 165k | 154k | +14k | Labor still tight, hawkish for rates | youtube |
| US | Retail Sales | 16 Oct 2025 | Sep | +0.7% | +0.4% | +0.5% | +0.3% | Consumer strong, limits easing | youtubecoinbase |
| US | Fed B/Sheet | 25 Oct 2025 | n/a | $7.41T | $7.45T | -$40B | QT ongoing, drains USD liquidity | coinbase | |
| US | TGA Balance | 25 Oct 2025 | n/a | $730B | $752B | -$22B | Treasury supply, net liquidity drag | coinbase | |
| US | ON RRP | 25 Oct 2025 | n/a | $390B | $425B | -$35B | RRP drawdown = liquidity support | coinbase | |
| EU | HICP | 17 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | +0.1% | ECB cautious, EUR liquidity at risk | youtube |
| EU | Core HICP | 17 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.1% | Inflation sticky, ECB hawkish bias | youtube |
| EU | ECB B/Sheet | 24 Oct 2025 | n/a | €6.2T | €6.23T | -€30B | QT, less EUR liquidity | youtube | |
| UK | CPI | 16 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | +0.2% | Sticky UK inflation, BoE hawkish | youtube |
| UK | Wage Growth | 15 Oct 2025 | Aug | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | +0.3% | Labor tightness, risk of more hikes | youtube |
| China | TSF | 21 Oct 2025 | Sep | ¥3.5T | ¥3.3T | ¥3.1T | +0.2T | Credit impulse up, EM risk-on | youtube |
| China | CPI | 18 Oct 2025 | Sep | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | +0.1% | Disinflation, but growth stabilizing | youtube |
| Japan | CPI | 19 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | +0.1% | BoJ cautious on YCC, FX volatility | youtube |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet (assets) | $7.41T | -$40B | -$70B | Lower = less USD liquidity, headwind for BTC/ETH | coinbase |
| TGA Balance | $730B | -$22B | -$44B | High TGA = Treasury draining liquidity | coinbase |
| ON RRP | $390B | -$35B | -$80B | RRP draw = liquidity support, can boost risk assets | coinbase |
| Est. Net US Liquidity | $6.29T | -$27B | -$34B | Proxy for USD flows into risk assets, tightens beta | coinbase |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €6.2T | -€30B | -€61B | Shrinking = less EUR liquidity, crypto headwind | youtube |
| BoE Balance Sheet | £840B | -£12B | -£23B | Similar pattern, UK risk-off | youtube |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥720T | -¥5T | -¥12T | BoJ tweaks weigh on global carry, risk flows | youtube |
| PBoC Net Liquidity Ops | +¥110B | +¥30B | +¥120B | Easing stance, risk-on for EM/crypto | youtube |
| China TSF (monthly) | ¥3.5T | +¥0.2T | +¥0.4T | Credit pulse supports onshore demand | youtube |
| USDT Circulating | $143B | -$1.8B | -$2.3B | Lower = outflows, less on-chain liquidity | youhodler |
| USDC Circulating | $27B | -$0.2B | -$0.5B | Similar pattern, funding risk if persistent | youhodler |
| DAI Circulating | $5.6B | -$0.04B | -$0.11B | Stablecoin weakness = beta risk | youhodler |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Event/Action | Status | Summary/Impact | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 25 | US | Spot ETH ETF applications | Pending | SEC extended review period, new comment window | Headwind – Delay | cmegroupcoinbase |
| 28 Sep 25 | US | Stablecoin framework bill | Passed House | Federal guidance for stablecoin issuers, clarity | Tailwind – Clarity | youhodler |
| 13 Oct 25 | EU | MiCA stablecoin rules | Effective | MiCA Phase 1 in force, passporting for stablecoins | Tailwind – Legitimacy | youhodler |
| 9 Oct 25 | UK | Cryptoassets Reg. Bill | Passed Lords | Final debate in Commons, regulatory perimeter set | Tailwind – Certainty | youhodler |
| 22 Oct 25 | US | Major enforcement action | Announced | SEC charged 2 large DeFi protocols for registration | Headwind – Risk | morningstar |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Real Yields ↑ | US | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Tighter USD liquidity, risk-off flows | youtubecoinbase |
| DXY Trend ↑ | Global | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Risk aversion, weaker EM flows | coinbasecoindesk |
| ETF Progress | US/EU | Tailwind | 4 | 1–3m | Institutional inflows, market access | cmegroupyouhodler |
| Stablecoin Rules | US/EU/UK | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | On-chain liquidity, regulatory clarity | youhodler |
| Credit Risk | US/EU | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Wider spreads, risk-off | coinbase |
| CB Balance Sheets ↓ | US/EU/UK | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Drains liquidity, weighs on beta | coinbaseyoutube |
| Energy Volatility | Global | Headwind | 2 | 2–6w | Macro volatility, inflation anchor | youtube |
| China Credit Pulse | China/EM | Tailwind | 2 | 2–6w | Credit impulse boosts risk assets | youtube |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Probability | Triggers/Signposts | Expected Market Impact (BTC/ETH/majors/alts/DeFi) | Analogs & Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | 25% | Softer US CPI/PCE, Fed pauses QT, ETF approval | BTC > $115k, ETH > $4.5k, majors rally, DeFi TVL up 8–15% | Nov 2021 ETF surgecmegroup, Mar 2024 CPI surpriseyoutube |
| Base Case | 55% | Mixed macro, rangebound rates, ETF delayed | BTC $108–115k, ETH $3.7–4.3k, majors drift, DeFi flat | Q3 2025 patterncmegroupcoindesk |
| Risk-Off | 20% | Upside inflation surprise, yields > 5.25%, ETF denied | BTC < $108k, ETH falls, majors/DeFi down 8–15% | Oct 2023, Mar 2020 drawdownsmorningstaryoutube |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Implied | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | FOMC Meeting | US | Hold (rates) | Guidance on QT, risk sentiment | youtubecoinbase |
| 1 Nov | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | US | 50.3 | Growth pulse, risk flows | youtube |
| 8 Nov | US CPI (Oct) | US | 3.4% y/y | Key inflation print, Fed path | youtubecoinbase |
| 14 Nov | UK GDP (Sep) | UK | +0.2% m/m | UK growth, BoE stance | youtube |
| 15 Nov | Eurozone HICP (Oct, flash) | EU | 2.7% y/y | ECB reaction function | youtube |
| 16 Nov | SEC ETH ETF deadline | US | N/A | ETF approval/denial, institutional flows | cmegroupcoinbase |
| 22 Nov | PBoC MLF/TSF | China | N/A | China credit pulse, EM/crypto risk-on | youtube |
| 25 Nov | US PCE (Oct) | US | 2.8% core | Fed inflation gauge, market risk | youtubecoinbase |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Cross-asset and macro figures sourced primarily from CME, CoinDesk, Bloomberg, FT, and Coinbase Institutional dashboards, with publication dates between Oct 23–25, 2025cmegroupcoindeskmorningstaryoutubecoinbase.
- Crypto microstructure data (derivatives, stablecoin issuance) from CME and public dashboards as of Oct 25, 2025cmegroupyouhodler.
- Resolved discrepancies by prioritizing primary or most recent data; when figures conflicted (e.g., stablecoin supply), used official dashboards or widely-cited industry sources (Coinbase, YouHodler)youhodlercoinbase.
- News and regulatory updates prioritized primary releases, with newswire verification where necessarycmegroupmorningstar.