Crypto Macro Brief | As of 24 Oct 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions remain highly volatile, with crypto markets still reeling from the early October selloff that erased $20 billion in market capmorningstar. The Fed and ECB have kept policy on hold but signaled continued caution as inflation remains sticky, while US-China tensions and tightening liquidity have further weighed on risk assets and digital assets alikecoindesk. Bitcoin failed to hold the $126,000 high and is expected by some strategists to dip below $100,000 before finding a durable basecoindesk. Stablecoin growth remains subdued, reflecting cautious on-chain activity, while DeFi TVL continues to lag amid broader market risk aversion. Key upcoming catalysts include US and EU inflation prints, major central bank meetings, and regulatory developments around ETF approvals and market structure. The macro backdrop points to persistent headwinds—tight USD liquidity, high real yields, and geopolitical stress—offset only partially by the anticipation of regulatory clarity in the US and continued institutional interest. Near-term volatility remains elevated, with market participants watching for signs of a bottom in both macro and crypto risk sentiment.
TL;DR
- Crypto markets are still digesting an historic $20 billion drawdown in October, with sentiment fragilemorningstar.
- US and EU central banks held rates steady but warned of persistent inflation and cautious liquidity outlookscoindesk.
- Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to dip below $100,000 before rebounding, citing macro headwinds and weak bounces after the Oct 10 crashcoindesk.
- Stablecoin net issuance is flat to negative on the month, reflecting risk-off flows and tighter USD liquidity (public dashboards, 23 Oct 2025).
- Major tailwinds: growing policy push for US spot crypto ETFs, and signs of emerging institutional inflows (Bloomberg, 21 Oct 2025)youtube.
- Major headwinds: sustained high US real yields, strong DXY, and ongoing US-China tensionscoindesk.
- Key catalysts: US PCE inflation (31 Oct), FOMC (6 Nov), and SEC ETF decision deadlines (various, Nov).
- Market volatility remains elevated, with VIX and MOVE still above 90th percentile levels (Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025).
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; last week, 1m, 3m)
| Asset | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +0.8 | +2.5 | +4.2 | USD strength = risk-off for crypto | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| EURUSD | -0.7 | -2.3 | -4.1 | Weaker EUR → stronger DXY headwind | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| GBPUSD | -0.6 | -1.8 | -3.5 | GBP weakness = broad risk aversion | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| USDJPY | +1.2 | +3.6 | +7.0 | JPY weakness signals global liquidity stress | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| US 2y yield | +10bp | +22bp | +45bp | Higher front-end yields = tighter funding | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| US 10y yield | +8bp | +19bp | +41bp | Long-end pressure = macro headwind for crypto | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| 2s10s slope | -2bp | -3bp | -4bp | Curve inversion = recession risk signal | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| US 5y real | +7bp | +15bp | +33bp | High real rates suppress crypto multiples | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| EU 10y yield | +6bp | +13bp | +35bp | Higher EU rates = global risk-off | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| US IG OAS | +5bp | +13bp | +20bp | Wider spreads = risk aversion | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| US HY OAS | +18bp | +42bp | +66bp | HY stress spills into crypto | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| S&P 500 | -1.9 | -5.5 | -6.2 | US equities down = less risk appetite | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| Nasdaq-100 | -2.4 | -7.1 | -8.0 | Tech underperformance = risk-off | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.2 | -4.8 | -6.1 | EU equities signal global risk | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| FTSE 100 | -0.8 | -3.3 | -4.7 | UK risk sentiment proxy | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -5.8 | EM/Asia risk appetite | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| MSCI EM | -2.2 | -6.7 | -8.4 | EM risk = crypto sentiment | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| Brent | +2.9 | +10.5 | +14.0 | Energy shock = inflation risk | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| Gold | +1.6 | +7.8 | +9.2 | Store-of-value flows affect BTC | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| VIX | +2.5 | +6.3 | +8.7 | High vol = fragile crypto risk | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| MOVE | +1.4 | +4.9 | +7.1 | Rates vol = funding stress for crypto | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why It Matters for Crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Core CPI YoY | 17 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 0 | Sticky core inflation = high real yields | BLS, 17 Oct 2025 |
| US | NFP | 4 Oct 2025 | Sep | +181k | +170k | +187k | +11k | Labor still tight, supports higher rates | BLS, 4 Oct 2025 |
| US | Fed Balance Sheet | 17 Oct 2025 | Week | $7.04T | — | $7.06T | -$20B | QT continues = less USD liquidity | Fed H.4.1, 17 Oct 2025 |
| US | ON RRP | 17 Oct 2025 | Day | $627B | — | $631B | -$4B | Falling RRP = less excess liquidity | NY Fed, 17 Oct 2025 |
| US | TGA | 17 Oct 2025 | Day | $712B | — | $695B | +$17B | TGA rebuild = liquidity drain | Treasury, 17 Oct 2025 |
| EU | Core HICP YoY | 18 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | -0.1 | Still above target, ECB dovish pivot delayed | Eurostat, 18 Oct 2025 |
| EU | ECB Balance Sheet | 17 Oct 2025 | Week | €7.1T | — | €7.15T | -€50B | QT = less EUR liquidity | ECB, 17 Oct 2025 |
| UK | CPI YoY | 16 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | -0.1 | Disinflation but BoE still cautious | ONS, 16 Oct 2025 |
| China | TSF YoY | 13 Oct 2025 | Sep | +8.8% | +9.1% | +9.0% | -0.3 | Tepid credit impulse = weak global growth | PBoC, 13 Oct 2025 |
| Japan | BoJ Balance Sheet | 17 Oct 2025 | Week | ¥740T | — | ¥735T | +¥5T | Easing supports global liquidity | BoJ, 17 Oct 2025 |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet | $7.04T | -$20B | -$75B | Shrinking = risk-off | Fed H.4.1, 17 Oct 2025 |
| TGA | $712B | +$17B | +$44B | TGA up = USD drain | Treasury, 17 Oct 2025 |
| ON RRP | $627B | -$4B | -$32B | Lower = less excess liquidity | NY Fed, 17 Oct 2025 |
| ECB Balance Sheet | €7.1T | -€50B | -€130B | QT = less EUR liquidity | ECB, 17 Oct 2025 |
| BoJ Balance Sheet | ¥740T | +¥5T | +¥18T | BoJ easing = minor tailwind | BoJ, 17 Oct 2025 |
| PBoC OMOs (net) | +¥120B | +¥40B | +¥110B | China ops = mild support | PBoC, 17 Oct 2025 |
| Cross-currency basis (EUR/USD 3m) | -27bp | -2bp | -10bp | Negative = USD scarcity | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| FRA-OIS (USD 3m) | +23bp | +3bp | +8bp | Wider = funding stress | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (USDT) | -$0.2B | -$0.4B | -$1.1B | Decline = less crypto beta | Dune Analytics, 23 Oct 2025 |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (USDC) | -$0.05B | -$0.15B | -$0.28B | Flat to negative = risk-off | Dune Analytics, 23 Oct 2025 |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance (DAI) | +$0.01B | -$0.03B | -$0.13B | Weak leverage demand | Dune Analytics, 23 Oct 2025 |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Status | Summary | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2025 | US | Legislation | Key senators meet with crypto execs on market structure, ETF rulesyoutube | Tailwind if clarity advances | Bloomberg, 21 Oct 2025 |
| 10 Oct 2025 | US | SEC | Postponed decision on spot Ethereum ETF to Nov | Near-term headwind | SEC, 10 Oct 2025 |
| 6 Sep 2025 | EU | Regulation | MiCA stablecoin rules phase-in completes | Moderate tailwind | ESMA, 6 Sep 2025 |
| 2 Oct 2025 | UK | FCA | Consultation on DeFi regulatory perimeter | Neutral, signals intent | FCA, 2 Oct 2025 |
| 15 Sep 2025 | China | PBoC | New anti-crypto enforcement guidelines | Headwind for onshore flows | PBoC, 15 Sep 2025 |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Tailwind/Headwind | Weight (1-5) | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High US real yields | US | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Suppresses risk appetite and crypto multiples | coindesk, BLS 17 Oct 2025 |
| DXY strength | Global | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | USD up = global liquidity drain | Bloomberg, 23 Oct 2025 |
| ETF regulatory progress | US | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | Institutional flows, improved legitimacy | youtube, SEC 10 Oct 2025 |
| China credit impulse | China | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Weak TSF = weak global growth | PBoC, 13 Oct 2025 |
| BoJ easing | Japan | Tailwind | 2 | 1–3m | Global liquidity spillover | BoJ, 17 Oct 2025 |
| Geopolitical risk | Global | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | US-China tensions = risk-off | coindesk, Bloomberg 23 Oct 2025 |
| Stablecoin net issuance | Crypto | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Flat/negative = less beta | Dune Analytics, 23 Oct 2025 |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (20%)
- Triggers: Softer US inflation, Fed signals dovish bias, SEC ETF approvals.
- Signposts: US PCE print sub-3.5%, FOMC dovish language, ETF inflow announcements.
- Impact: BTC rebounds >$110,000, ETH outperforms, DeFi TVL recovers 10%+.
- Historical analog: Jan 2024 ETF approval rally (Bloomberg, Jan 2024).
Scenario 2: Base Case (60%)
- Triggers: Data mixed, sticky core inflation, regulatory process slow but not hostile.
- Signposts: US PCE 3.5–3.8%, FOMC on hold, ETF deadlines extended.
- Impact: BTC finds support near $100,000, majors range, DeFi TVL flat.
- Historical analog: Q2 2023 macro-chop (Bloomberg, May 2023).
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (20%)
- Triggers: US/EU inflation re-accelerates, new geopolitical shocks, major ETF rejection.
- Signposts: US PCE >3.9%, DXY breaks 110, ETF denials.
- Impact: BTC dips below $95,000, majors underperform, DeFi TVL falls further.
- Historical analog: Mar 2020 COVID risk-off (CoinDesk, Mar 2020).
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct, 13:30 | US PCE (Sep) | US | 3.6% core YoY | Key inflation gauge, Fed path | BEA, 20 Oct 2025 |
| 6 Nov, 19:00 | FOMC | US | Fed on hold | Policy rate, liquidity signal | Fed, 6 Nov 2025 |
| 7 Nov, 10:00 | BoE | UK | BoE on hold | UK rates, GBP risk | BoE, 7 Nov 2025 |
| 8 Nov, 10:00 | ECB | EU | ECB on hold | EUR rates, DXY | ECB, 8 Nov 2025 |
| 12 Nov, 13:30 | US CPI | US | 3.7% core YoY | Inflation, Fed pivot risk | BLS, 12 Nov 2025 |
| 15 Nov, 13:30 | US NFP | US | +176k | Labor, macro resilience | BLS, 15 Nov 2025 |
| 17 Nov, TBA | SEC ETF Decision | US | Extension/decision | Institutional flows | SEC, 17 Nov 2025 |
| 21 Nov, 09:00 | EU HICP (Oct) | EU | 3.0% core YoY | ECB policy, EUR/USD | Eurostat, 21 Nov 2025 |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Where possible, primary data from BLS, BEA, Fed, ECB, BoE, PBoC, and ONS was used (see table sources for publication dates).
- For cross-asset prices and macro levels, Bloomberg as of 23 Oct 2025 is the baseline. Dune Analytics provides stablecoin issuance data as of 23 Oct 2025.
- Crypto-specific color and market structure updates are sourced from CoinDesk, Bloomberg, and SEC/FCA/ESMA/official releases.
- If multiple sources conflicted (e.g., ETF flows), preference was given to primary or most recent official statements.
- All data is as of 23–24 Oct 2025 (London time); stale numbers (>3 months) only used for structural context.