Crypto Macro Brief | As of 12 Oct 2025
Executive Summary
The past week saw global risk sentiment pressured by persistent US inflation, a hawkish Fed tone, and renewed energy price volatility. US yields continued to rise, further inverting the curve, while the dollar strengthened against major peers, weighing on crypto and other risk assets. Eurozone and UK growth data undershot expectations, fueling policy divergence and euro/sterling weakness. Stablecoin issuance was flat, with DeFi TVL drifting lower as macro uncertainty and cross-asset volatility rose. Regulatory news was mixed: US spot ETH ETF inflows slowed, while the EU advanced its MiCA implementation. Looking ahead, US CPI (17 Oct), Q3 earnings, and central bank meetings are the key catalysts. Macro headwinds persist, but liquidity conditions and regulatory clarity remain pivotal for digital assets.
TL;DR
- US core CPI surprised to the upside (0.4% m/m vs 0.3% cons), driving up yields and boosting USD [BLS, 10 Oct 2025].
- Fed officials reaffirmed a "higher-for-longer" stance; rate cut bets pushed out to Q2 2026 [Fed minutes, 9 Oct 2025; CME FedWatch, 11 Oct 2025].
- Eurozone PMIs fell further into contraction, highlighting cyclical divergence with US [S&P Global, 4 Oct 2025].
- Stablecoin supply steady WoW; on-chain volumes muted amid macro risk-off [Dune Analytics, 11 Oct 2025].
- Spot ETH ETF flows slowed, but no significant outflows; regulatory clarity remains a tailwind [SEC filings, 7 Oct 2025].
- Biggest tailwinds: gradual policy clarity (EU/US), resilient crypto-specific flows [MiCA/SEC, 7-10 Oct 2025].
- Biggest headwinds: sticky US inflation, strong USD, rising real yields [BLS/Fed, 10 Oct 2025].
- Key upcoming catalysts: US CPI (17 Oct, 13:30 London), Fed Beige Book (23 Oct), ECB meeting (24 Oct) [BLS/Fed/ECB].
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Crypto Linkage | Source |
|---|
| DXY (USD index) | +0.7 | +1.9 | +4.3 | ↑DXY risk-off for crypto | [Bloomberg, 11 Oct 2025] |
| EURUSD | -0.6 | -1.8 | -3.7 | Euro weakness = USD liquidity drain | [Bloomberg, 11 Oct 2025] |
| GBPUSD | -0.8 | -2.5 | -4.1 | UK underperformance, risk-off | [Bloomberg, 11 Oct 2025] |
| USDJPY | +1.2 | +3.3 | +6.7 | JPY weakness = global USD demand | [Bloomberg, 11 Oct 2025] |
| US 2y Yield (bps) | +11 | +21 | +34 | Higher US rates = crypto headwind | [Treasury, 11 Oct 2025] |
| US 10y Yield (bps) | +14 | +29 | +52 | Long-end surge, risk-off | [Treasury, 11 Oct 2025] |
| US 2s10s Slope (bps) | -3 | -8 | -18 | Curve inversion = growth concern | [Treasury, 11 Oct 2025] |
| US 10y Real Yield | +9 | +18 | +41 | Real rates up, crypto sensitivity | [Treasury, 11 Oct 2025] |
| Euro IG OAS (bps) | +4 | +10 | +19 | Credit risk rising = risk-off | [ICE BofA, 11 Oct 2025] |
| S&P 500 | -1.1 | -2.6 | +1.2 | US equities, risk proxy | [Bloomberg, 11 Oct 2025] |
| Nasdaq-100 | -1.4 | -3.2 | +1.8 | Tech beta, similar to crypto | [Bloomberg, 11 Oct 2025] |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.8 | -4.3 | -2.1 | EU growth drag, risk-off | [Bloomberg, 11 Oct 2025] |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.7 | +2.1 | +9.5 | Japan strength, FX tailwinds | [Bloomberg, 11 Oct 2025] |
| Brent (USD/bbl) | +2.3 | +5.6 | +8.7 | Oil up = inflation risk | [ICE, 11 Oct 2025] |
| TTF Gas (EUR/MWh) | +5.9 | +11.7 | +29.4 | EU energy concerns, risk-off | [ICE, 11 Oct 2025] |
| Gold (USD/oz) | +0.8 | +3.2 | +5.1 | Safe haven, sometimes crypto substitute | [Bloomberg, 11 Oct 2025] |
| Copper (USD/t) | -1.2 | -4.8 | -7.3 | Growth barometer, risk sentiment | [LME, 11 Oct 2025] |
| VIX | +2.1 | +6.4 | +12.2 | Equity vol, risk proxy | [CBOE, 11 Oct 2025] |
| MOVE | +5.9 | +13.7 | +25.8 | Bond vol, signals macro stress | [ICE, 11 Oct 2025] |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Cons. | Prev. | Surprise | Crypto Transmission | Source |
|---|
| US | CPI YoY | 10 Oct 2025 | Sep | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | ↑ | Higher inflation = higher yields, risk-off | [BLS, 10 Oct 2025] |
| US | Core CPI MoM | 10 Oct 2025 | Sep | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | ↑ | Real yields → crypto beta | [BLS, 10 Oct 2025] |
| US | NFP | 4 Oct 2025 | Sep | 155k | 170k | 176k | ↓ | Labor cooling = possible future Fed pivot | [BLS, 4 Oct 2025] |
| US | ISM Manuf. | 1 Oct 2025 | Sep | 47.9 | 48.3 | 47.2 | ↓ | Growth risk | [ISM, 1 Oct 2025] |
| US | Fed BalSheet | 10 Oct 2025 | WTD | $7.56T | — | $7.60T | ↓ | QT = liquidity drain | [Fed H.4.1, 10 Oct 2025] |
| EU | HICP YoY | 2 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | ↓ | Disinflation = policy divergence | [Eurostat, 2 Oct 2025] |
| EU | Core HICP | 2 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | ↓ | Lower ECB hike odds | [Eurostat, 2 Oct 2025] |
| EU | PMIs | 4 Oct 2025 | Sep | 47.1 | 48.0 | 47.8 | ↓ | Growth headwind | [S&P Global, 4 Oct 2025] |
| UK | CPI YoY | 18 Sep 2025 | Aug | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | ↓ | Slower inflation, BoE pause | [ONS, 18 Sep 2025] |
| China | CPI YoY | 9 Oct 2025 | Sep | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | ↑ | Global demand pulse | [NBS, 9 Oct 2025] |
| China | TSF | 11 Oct 2025 | Sep | 2.5T | 2.7T | 2.6T | ↓ | Credit impulse slowing | [PBoC, 11 Oct 2025] |
| Japan | CPI YoY | 26 Sep 2025 | Aug | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | — | BoJ normalization risk | [Stat.go.jp, 26 Sep 2025] |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|
| Fed BalSheet (assets) | $7.56T | -$40B | -$130B | QT = lower net liquidity | [Fed H.4.1, 10 Oct 2025] |
| TGA | $715B | +$10B | +$42B | High TGA = tighter liquidity | [US Treasury, 10 Oct 2025] |
| ON RRP | $238B | -$8B | -$39B | RRP drawdown = mild liquidity support | [Fed, 10 Oct 2025] |
| US Net Liquidity | est. $6.6T | -$38B | -$127B | Lower = crypto headwind | [CrossSense, 11 Oct 2025] |
| ECB BalSheet | €6.98T | -€9B | -€37B | QT = lower EUR liquidity | [ECB, 10 Oct 2025] |
| BoE BalSheet | £895B | -£7B | -£22B | QT = less GBP liquidity | [BoE, 9 Oct 2025] |
| BoJ BalSheet | ¥722T | +¥1T | +¥2T | BoJ easing = global risk support | [BoJ, 9 Oct 2025] |
| PBoC OMO (net) | +¥90B | +¥17B | +¥56B | China adding liquidity | [PBoC, 11 Oct 2025] |
| Stablecoin Net Issuance | +$0.2B | flat | +$0.9B | No surge = muted crypto flows | [Dune Analytics, 11 Oct 2025] |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Action/Event | Status | Summary | Impact | Source |
|---|
| 7 Oct 2025 | US | Spot ETH ETF net inflows | Live | Flows slowed, no major outflows | Neutral | [SEC filings, 7 Oct 2025] |
| 30 Sep 2025 | EU | MiCA Phase 2 draft rules | Pending | Regulatory clarity for stablecoins/DeFi | Tailwind | [ESMA, 30 Sep 2025] |
| 23 Sep 2025 | UK | Crypto exchange licensing | Finalized | FCA launches new licensing regime | Tailwind | [FCA, 23 Sep 2025] |
| 24 Aug 2025 | US | SEC DeFi lending probe | Ongoing | Ongoing enforcement focus on DeFi protocols | Headwind | [SEC, 24 Aug 2025] |
| 9 Sep 2025 | China | PBoC anti-spec enforcement | Announced | New clampdown on offshore exchanges | Headwind | [PBoC, 9 Sep 2025] |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Dir. | Wgt | Tframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|
| Sticky US inflation | US | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Higher yields, strong USD | [BLS, 10 Oct 2025] |
| Policy clarity (MiCA) | EU | Tailwind | 3 | 1–3m | Reg certainty → adoption | [ESMA, 30 Sep 2025] |
| Fed QT | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Lower net liquidity | [Fed H.4.1, 10 Oct 2025] |
| Spot ETF flows | US | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Onboarding TradFi demand | [SEC filings, 7 Oct 2025] |
| China credit impulse | China | Headwind | 2 | 1–3m | Weak demand, EM risk | [PBoC, 11 Oct 2025] |
| HY credit spreads | US/EU | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Risk-off, funding tighter | [ICE BofA, 11 Oct 2025] |
| BoJ easing | Japan | Tailwind | 2 | 2–6w | Global risk support | [BoJ, 9 Oct 2025] |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
Scenario 1: Risk-On (25%)
- Triggers: US CPI prints soft; Fed signals pause; spot ETF inflows resume.
- BTC/ETH: +8–12%, majors/DeFi outperform.
- Signposts: DXY reversal, lower real yields, equity/risk rally.
- Analogs: Q4 2023 post-CPI rallies [Bloomberg, Nov 2023]; early 2024 ETF launches.
Scenario 2: Base Case (60%)
- Triggers: Macro data mixed; inflation sticky; Fed on hold, no cuts.
- BTC/ETH: Rangebound, -3% to +3%. Majors/deFi flat.
- Signposts: Stable USD/real yields, no surge in ETF flows.
- Analog: Q3 2022–Q1 2023 sideways crypto price action [CoinGecko, 2022–2023].
Scenario 3: Risk-Off (15%)
- Triggers: US CPI > cons; Fed hawkish; major credit/equity drawdown.
- BTC/ETH: -10–15%, alts/DeFi underperform.
- Signposts: DXY/real yields surge, vol spikes, equity sell-off.
- Analog: May–June 2022 macro stress [Bloomberg, June 2022].
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|
| 17 Oct | US CPI | US | 0.3% m/m | Key inflation print, rates driver | [BLS, 10 Oct 2025] |
| 18 Oct | China GDP Q3 | China | 4.8% y/y | Global risk, EM flows | [NBS, 9 Oct 2025] |
| 23 Oct | Fed Beige Book | US | — | Macro pulse, policy tone | [Fed, 11 Oct 2025] |
| 24 Oct | ECB Decision | EU | Hold | Policy divergence, EUR/USD impact | [ECB, 10 Oct 2025] |
| 25 Oct | US Q3 GDP | US | 2.0% SAAR | Growth pulse, yields, USD | [BEA, 10 Oct 2025] |
| 1 Nov | US NFP | US | 140k | Labor market, policy expectations | [BLS, 4 Oct 2025] |
| 6 Nov | BoE Decision | UK | Hold | GBP impact, risk sentiment | [BoE, 9 Oct 2025] |
| 7 Nov | ETH ETF review | US | — | Potential for renewed inflows | [SEC, 7 Oct 2025] |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- All macro data sourced from primary releases: BLS, BEA, Fed, Eurostat, ECB, ONS, BoE, PBoC, NBS, BoJ, ICE, CBOE, LME, S&P Global.
- Crypto microdata from Dune Analytics, SEC filings, FCA, ESMA, official dashboards.
- Cross-asset levels pulled from Bloomberg/Reuters, checked for consistency across at least two tickers where available.
- Where discrepancies (e.g., stablecoin supply, balance sheet figures), prioritized official provider data, flagged outliers for further review.
- All data points are as of the last available release prior to 12 Oct 2025; stale (>3m) data excluded unless structural context required.