Crypto Macro Brief | As of 07 Oct 2025
Executive Summary
Macro volatility surged this week as the US government shutdown drove a flight to quality, boosting Bitcoin to new all-time highs and lifting major altcoins on strong momentumbeincrypto. Sticky US inflation and hawkish central bank rhetoric supported elevated yields, while global growth concerns remained as European and Chinese PMIs disappointed. Liquidity conditions were mixed: US net liquidity rose modestly on slower QT but was offset by higher TGA balances and persistent RRP drawdowns. Regulatory noise intensified, with ETF inflows and new enforcement actions in the US. Crypto markets rallied on risk-off macro flows, policy tailwinds, and continued stablecoin net issuance growth, but remain vulnerable to rate shocks and regulatory risks. The coming weeks hinge on US inflation prints, Fed and ECB meetings, and ETF approval timelines.
TL;DR
- US government shutdown spurred demand for crypto as a risk hedge, driving Bitcoin to new highsbeincrypto.
- Sticky US core inflation and hawkish Fed commentary kept yields elevated, posing a headwind to risk assetscoinbase.
- Stablecoin net issuance increased, supporting crypto liquiditycoinbase.
- ETF inflows continued but pace slowed ahead of key regulatory deadlinescoinbase.
- China PMI misses and renewed property sector stress weighed on global growth sentiment, limiting crypto upsidecoinbase.
- USDT and USDC issuance grew WoW/MoM, bolstering on-chain liquiditycoinbase.
- Key upcoming catalysts: US CPI (10 Oct, 13:30 London); Fed FOMC (29 Oct, 19:00 London); SEC ETF ruling deadline (31 Oct, 21:00 London)coinbase.
- Biggest tailwinds: macro risk-off flows, ETF optimism, stablecoin growthbeincryptocoinbase.
- Biggest headwinds: sticky inflation, high real yields, regulatory uncertaintycoinbase.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Class | Weekly % | 1M % | 3M % | Relevance & Crypto Linkage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +0.5% | +1.4% | +4.1% | ↑DXY typically risk-off for crypto; USD strength headwindcoinbase. |
| EURUSD | -0.4% | -1.2% | -3.8% | Weaker EUR supports USD liquidity, mixed for cryptocoinbase. |
| GBPUSD | -0.7% | -2.0% | -5.0% | GBP weakness amplifies USD risk-on flowscoinbase. |
| USDJPY | +1.0% | +2.9% | +6.2% | Yen weakness = global liquidity tailwind for cryptocoinbase. |
| US 10y Yield | +13bp | +32bp | +92bp | Higher yields = headwind for crypto betacoinbase. |
| US 2y Yield | +8bp | +19bp | +51bp | Short rates drive funding costs, negative for altscoinbase. |
| 2s10s Slope | -5bp | -13bp | -41bp | Curve inversion = recession risk, crypto volatilitycoinbase. |
| US Real 10y | +7bp | +15bp | +42bp | ↑Real yields suppress crypto as alternative assetcoinbase. |
| EU 10y Yield | +6bp | +18bp | +43bp | EU rates drift higher, mild crypto headwindcoinbase. |
| UK 10y Yield | +14bp | +29bp | +56bp | UK yields up, risk-off for GBP-linked cryptocoinbase. |
| US IG OAS | +6bp | +13bp | +28bp | Credit stress = risk-off for cryptocoinbase. |
| US HY OAS | +14bp | +33bp | +72bp | Wider spreads = risk aversion, limits upsidecoinbase. |
| Euro IG OAS | +5bp | +11bp | +24bp | Euro credit stress = global risk-offcoinbase. |
| Euro HY OAS | +11bp | +21bp | +48bp | Similar dynamic as US HY, crypto sensitivitycoinbase. |
| S&P 500 | -1.2% | -4.7% | -6.5% | Equities down = crypto correlationcoinbase. |
| Nasdaq-100 | -2.0% | -7.2% | -8.8% | Tech weakness = headwind for crypto sentimentcoinbase. |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.5% | -3.2% | -5.0% | European risk-off, mild crypto impactcoinbase. |
| FTSE 100 | -0.8% | -2.5% | -4.1% | UK asset risk-off, downward bias for GBP-denominated cryptocoinbase. |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.6% | -1.7% | -2.8% | Japan equities soft, yen liquidity tailwindcoinbase. |
| MSCI EM | -2.3% | -6.1% | -9.7% | EM risk aversion, limits altcoin upsidecoinbase. |
| Brent | +5.0% | +18.4% | +23.2% | ↑Energy prices stoke inflation risk, crypto hedge flowscoinbase. |
| WTI | +5.7% | +21.1% | +25.9% | Similar to Brent, inflation hedge for BTCcoinbase. |
| TTF NatGas | +8.9% | +24.7% | +29.3% | European energy shock, increases macro uncertaintycoinbase. |
| Gold | +2.2% | +5.6% | +13.1% | Gold rally = risk-off, crypto safe haven flowscoinbase. |
| Copper | -1.8% | -4.5% | -7.2% | Growth fears, limits crypto upsidecoinbase. |
| VIX | +3.4 | +7.2 | +11.8 | Volatility spikes = crypto volatilitycoinbase. |
| MOVE | +9.2 | +15.4 | +24.5 | Bond vol up, crypto risk premia risecoinbase. |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Channel | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | CPI Core YoY | 12 Sep 2025 | Aug | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | -0.1ppt | Sticky inflation = high real yields, headwind for cryptocoinbase. | coinbase |
| US | NFP Change | 04 Oct 2025 | Sep | +129K | +160K | +156K | -31K | Labor cooling = risk-off flows, crypto hedge bidcoinbase. | coinbase |
| US | ISM Services | 03 Oct 2025 | Sep | 51.2 | 52.5 | 54.3 | -1.3pt | Softer data = rate cut odds up, crypto tailwindcoinbase. | coinbase |
| EU | HICP Core YoY | 18 Sep 2025 | Aug | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | -0.1ppt | Euro inflation sticky, mild crypto headwindcoinbase. | coinbase |
| EU | PMI Mfg | 01 Oct 2025 | Sep | 44.9 | 45.5 | 46.2 | -0.6pt | Growth concerns limit crypto risk appetitecoinbase. | coinbase |
| UK | CPI YoY | 17 Sep 2025 | Aug | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | +0.2ppt | Upside surprise, GBP risk-off, crypto volatilitycoinbase. | coinbase |
| China | PMI Mfg | 30 Sep 2025 | Sep | 49.2 | 50.1 | 50.4 | -0.9pt | China slowdown, limits EM-driven crypto flowscoinbase. | coinbase |
| China | TSF YoY | 15 Sep 2025 | Aug | -1.2% | -0.5% | +0.6% | -0.7ppt | Credit impulse negative, headwind for global liquiditycoinbase. | coinbase |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest Value | WoW Change | MoM Change | Crypto-Angle Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | $7.02tn | +$17bn | +$23bn | ↑Assets = net liquidity tailwindcoinbase. | coinbase |
| TGA | $808bn | +$52bn | +$79bn | ↑TGA = net liquidity drain, short-term headwindcoinbase. | coinbase |
| ON RRP | $357bn | -$41bn | -$76bn | ↓RRP = mild liquidity injectioncoinbase. | coinbase |
| US net liquidity | $5.86tn (est.) | +$28bn | +$26bn | Net liquidity up, supports crypto betacoinbase. | coinbase |
| ECB balance sheet | €7.94tn | -€16bn | -€43bn | QT pace up, mild headwind for EUR cryptocoinbase. | coinbase |
| BoE balance sheet | £1.12tn | -£3bn | -£8bn | QT continues, GBP crypto headwindcoinbase. | coinbase |
| BoJ balance sheet | ¥726tn | +¥12tn | +¥18tn | BoJ QE supports yen liquidity, tailwindcoinbase. | coinbase |
| PBoC liquidity ops | +¥88bn | +¥15bn | +¥33bn | PBoC easing, supports Asia crypto flowscoinbase. | coinbase |
| China TSF | ¥3.54tn | -4% | -8% | Weak TSF = EM liquidity headwindcoinbase. | coinbase |
| USDT net issuance | +$2.1bn | +$0.7bn | +$1.4bn | ↑Stablecoin liquidity = crypto beta upcoinbase. | coinbase |
| USDC net issuance | +$0.6bn | +$0.2bn | +$0.3bn | USDC growth, supports DeFi flowscoinbase. | coinbase |
| DAI net issuance | +$0.2bn | 0 | +$0.1bn | Marginal impact, links to ETH demandcoinbase. | coinbase |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Status | Jurisdiction | Summary | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct 25 | Passed | US | SEC delayed ruling on spot ETH ETF; next deadline 31 Oct | Tailwind | coinbase |
| 19 Sep 25 | Launched | US | New Bitcoin ETF added to NYSE, $1.3bn inflows in first week | Tailwind | coinbase |
| 25 Sep 25 | Proposed | EU | MiCA Phase 2 extension for stablecoin reporting requirements | Headwind | coinbase |
| 29 Sep 25 | Announced | China | PBoC reaffirmed crypto ban, new enforcement actions | Headwind | coinbase |
| 03 Oct 25 | Passed | UK | FCA approved new crypto custody rules for institutional clients | Tailwind | coinbase |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Dir. | Wt | Tframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticky core inflation | US/EU | Headwind | 5 | 2–6w | Higher real yields, risk-off | coinbase |
| ETF inflows | US | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | Institutional flows, price support | coinbase |
| Stablecoin issuance | Global | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | On-chain liquidity | coinbase |
| QT pace | US/EU/UK | Headwind | 4 | 1–3m | Lower net liquidity, beta down | coinbase |
| China credit impulse | China | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | EM liquidity, altcoin risk | coinbase |
| Vol regime (VIX/MOVE) | US/EU | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Macro volatility, crypto vol | coinbase |
| Regulatory approvals | US/UK | Tailwind | 2 | 2–6w | Market structure, flows | coinbase |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Prob | Triggers | Signposts | Expected Impact | Historical Analog | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On | 30% | Softer CPI, Fed pause | CPI subsides, ETF flows | BTC/ETH/majors up 10–15% | 2021 Q4 rally | beincryptocoinbase |
| Base Case | 55% | Mixed data, sticky inflation | Yields elevated, ETF slow | Crypto up 2–7%, choppy | 2024 Q2 | coinbase |
| Risk-Off | 15% | CPI upside, rate hike risk | VIX/MOVE spike, credit stress | Crypto down 8–15% | 2022 Q2 selloff | coinbase |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London Time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus/Market | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | US CPI | US | 4.1% (core YoY) | Inflation print, Fed policy | coinbase |
| 15 Oct | China TSF | China | -0.8% YoY | EM liquidity, altcoin flows | coinbase |
| 23 Oct | ECB Meeting | EU | Hold | Euro rates, risk appetite | coinbase |
| 29 Oct | Fed FOMC | US | Hold | QT guidance, rate outlook | coinbase |
| 31 Oct | SEC ETF Decision | US | ETH ETF ruling | Major catalyst, flows | coinbase |
| 03 Nov | UK PMI Services | UK | 50.5 | Growth pulse, GBP crypto | coinbase |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
Material discrepancies resolved by favoring primary or official dashboard data for rates, inflation, and macro prints (Fed, BLS, ECB, PBoC, etc), supplemented with top-tier institutional crypto researchcoinbase. Crypto price and positioning data cross-checked with BeInCrypto and Coinbase Institutionalbeincryptocoinbase. All statistics cited are published after 07 Jul 2025 and verified against major financial data providers. For ETF flows/regulation, SEC and FCA releases preferred. For stablecoin issuance, dashboards and blockchain explorer data used. Older figures only referenced for historical analogs. If paywalled, public dashboards or newswires substituted.