Crypto Macro Brief | As of 04 Oct 2025
Executive Summary
Macro conditions remain volatile as sticky US inflation, strong labor data, and renewed Fed hawkishness keep US yields and the dollar elevated, pressuring digital assets. The DXY hit new 18-month highs while US 10-year yields rose sharply after ISM and payroll data came in hot, dampening rate-cut hopes. Crypto majors remain rangebound, with BTC and ETH underperforming risk assets as liquidity tightens and regulatory uncertainty persists. Eurozone and UK data continued to surprise on the downside, fueling stagflation fears and driving relative USD strength. China’s credit data and PBoC liquidity injections have failed to reverse capital outflows or stabilize CNY, further straining global liquidity. Regulatory news was mixed: the US ETF review process saw delays, while the UK clarified stablecoin rules and China continued enforcement actions. Near-term catalysts include US CPI (10 Oct), next week’s FOMC minutes, and Q3 stablecoin reserve attestation releases—all crucial for crypto direction as macro headwinds remain dominant.
TL;DR
- US 10-year yields surged 15bps WoW after strong ISM and NFP, driving DXY to new highs—risk-off for crypto as USD liquidity tightens coinbasecoinex.
- BTC and ETH flat to down on the week, underperforming equities as macro headwinds persist and ETF flows stall tradingviewcoinbase.
- Stablecoin supply shrank by $0.8B WoW as on-chain activity slowed and T-bill yields rose, reducing crypto funding liquidity coinbasecoinex.
- China’s CNY hit 7.42/USD, a 15-year low, as the PBoC stepped up liquidity ops but capital outflows persisted—de-risking for EM/crypto sentiment coinbasecoinex.
- Eurozone PMIs stayed in contraction; ECB signaled a data-dependent pause, but balance sheet runoff continues—a mild headwind for crypto coinbase.
- UK Treasury finalized stablecoin regime (effective 01 Nov), clarifying rules for GBP-backed tokens—a modest tailwind for DeFi coinbase.
- Key catalysts ahead: US CPI (10 Oct), FOMC minutes (16 Oct), large BTC ETF review deadline (21 Oct, US time) coinbasecoinex.
- Biggest headwinds: sticky real yields, ongoing regulatory uncertainty, and global liquidity contraction coinbasecoinex.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Index | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | +1.1 | +3.2 | +6.7 | ↑DXY = risk-off for crypto, tighter USD liquidity coinbasecoinex |
| EURUSD | -0.9 | -2.7 | -5.8 | EUR weakness = USD strength, negative for global crypto flows coinbase |
| GBPUSD | -0.7 | -2.5 | -4.9 | Similar USD dynamic; weaker GBP, mild DeFi tailwind via UK rules coinbase |
| USDJPY | +0.6 | +2.9 | +8.1 | JPY weakness = global carry unwind risk coinbasecoinex |
| US 10y Yield | +15bp | +42bp | +88bp | Higher yields = risk-off, funding stress for crypto coinbasecoinex |
| US 2s10s | +6bp | -14bp | -30bp | Curve less inverted = growth scare fading, but high rates linger coinbase |
| US Real 10y | +11bp | +28bp | +49bp | Higher real yields = negative for non-yielding assets (BTC/ETH) coinbasecoinex |
| S&P 500 | -0.8 | -2.1 | -4.4 | Equities down = broad risk-off, weighs on crypto coinbase |
| Nasdaq-100 | -1.2 | -3.8 | -7.1 | Tech/crypto beta, underperforms coinbasecoinex |
| Euro Stoxx600 | -1.5 | -4.2 | -9.2 | EU risk-off, drags global flows coinbase |
| Brent Crude | +2.4 | +10.3 | +20.8 | Higher oil = inflation risk, rate pressure coinbase |
| TTF Gas | +6.1 | +17.6 | +29.4 | Energy squeeze = inflationary, negative for risk coinbase |
| Gold | -1.7 | -2.9 | -3.4 | Real rates up, gold down, no safe-haven bid coinbase |
| VIX | +1.6 | +4.2 | +6.8 | Vol up = risk-off, higher crypto vol coinbasecoinex |
| BTC | -1.4 | -4.5 | -11.2 | Macro headwinds, ETF delays, flat on low vol tradingviewcoinbasecoinex |
| ETH | -1.9 | -5.3 | -15.1 | Similar drivers, DeFi TVL down tradingviewcryptopotatocoinbasecoinex |
| USDT Supply | -0.5 | -2.2 | -3.8 | Stablecoin shrink = less on-chain liquidity coinbase |
Sources: tradingviewcryptopotatocoinbasecoinex, TradingView, Bloomberg (all as of Oct 4, 2025)
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Why it matters for crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Core CPI YoY | 12 Sep | Aug | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | +0.1ppt | Sticky inflation = higher real yields coinbasecoinex | |
| US | NFP Change | 04 Oct | Sep | +265k | +170k | +210k | +95k | Hot labor = delayed rate cuts, risk-off coinbasecoinex | |
| US | ISM Services | 03 Oct | Sep | 54.2 | 52.6 | 53.9 | +1.6 | Strong services = hawkish Fed coinbasecoinex | |
| US | Fed Bal Sheet | 03 Oct | w/e | $7.67T | — | $7.69T | -$20B | Shrinking = less liquidity coinbasecoinex | |
| US | ON RRP | 03 Oct | w/e | $620B | — | $677B | -$57B | RRP drain = partial liquidity offset coinbasecoinex | |
| EU | Core HICP YoY | 01 Oct | Sep | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | -0.2ppt | Disinflation = ECB pause coinbase | |
| EU | PMIs Composite | 23 Sep | Sep | 47.2 | 47.9 | 47.8 | -0.7 | Contraction = EU risk-off coinbase | |
| UK | CPI YoY | 18 Sep | Aug | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | -0.4ppt | Disinflation = BoE pause, GBP weakness coinbase | |
| China | TSF YoY | 18 Sep | Aug | +7.9% | +8.1% | +8.4% | -0.2ppt | Weak credit = EM risk, CNY pressure coinbasecoinex | |
| Japan | BoJ Balance Sheet | 01 Oct | Sep | ¥736T | — | ¥734T | +¥2T | Easing = risk-on, but JPY weakens coinbase |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Assets | $7.67T | -$20B | -$56B | Shrinking = headwind coinbasecoinex |
| TGA | $729B | +$22B | +$39B | Treasury cash up, less market liquidity coinbasecoinex |
| ON RRP | $620B | -$57B | -$121B | RRP drain = partial offset coinbasecoinex |
| US Net Liquidity | $6.32T | -$99B | -$216B | Proxy for crypto beta coinbasecoinex |
| ECB Assets | €7.83T | -€13B | -€41B | Euro liquidity still contracting coinbase |
| BoE Assets | £0.98T | -£5B | -£13B | Little change, mild headwind coinbase |
| PBoC Liquidity Ops | +¥178B | +¥21B | +¥64B | Easing, but CNY still weak coinbasecoinex |
| USDT Supply | $82.6B | -$0.5B | -$1.8B | Stablecoin supply fall = less on-chain leverage coinbasecoinex |
| USDC Supply | $25.1B | -$0.2B | -$0.6B | Similar dynamic coinbasecoinex |
| DAI Supply | $4.2B | -$0.1B | -$0.3B | DAI contraction = DeFi TVL pressure coinbasecoinex |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Event | Summary | Crypto Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Sep | US | BTC ETF Review Delay | SEC extended review for 4 major BTC spot ETFs | Headwind: delayed institutional flows coinbasecoinex | |
| 02 Oct | UK | Stablecoin Regime | Treasury finalized GBP-backed stablecoin rules (effective Nov 1) | Tailwind: clarity for DeFi coinbase | |
| 20 Sep | EU | MiCA Implementation | ESMA published final MiCA technical standards | Mild tailwind: regulatory certainty coinbase | |
| 18 Sep | China | Enforcement Sweep | PBoC/SAFE tightened crypto transaction monitoring | Headwind: capital controls coinbasecoinex | |
| 05 Aug | US | SEC vs. Major Exchange | Ongoing enforcement, no settlement | Headwind: market structure risk coinbasecoinex |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight (1-5) | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Yields/Real Rates | US | Headwind | 5 | 2-6w | Higher yields = risk-off, funding squeeze | coinbasecoinex |
| DXY Trend | Global | Headwind | 4 | 2-6w | Strong USD = weaker global flows | coinbasecoinex |
| Stablecoin Supply | Global | Headwind | 3 | 2-6w | Less leverage/liquidity | coinbasecoinex |
| UK Stablecoin Regs | UK | Tailwind | 2 | 1-3m | Regulatory clarity for DeFi | coinbase |
| ECB/BoE QT | EU/UK | Headwind | 2 | 2-6w | Lower liquidity, EUR/GBP weak | coinbase |
| China Credit Pulse | China | Headwind | 3 | 1-3m | Weak credit, CNY outflows | coinbasecoinex |
| ETF Approval Odds | US | Tailwind | 2 | 2-6w | Flows on positive news | coinbasecoinex |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
-
Risk-On (20%)
-
Base Case (60%)
-
Risk-Off (20%)
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct, 13:30 | US CPI | US | 0.3% MoM (core) | Key inflation print for yields/risk coinbasecoinex | |
| 11 Oct, 09:00 | UK GDP MoM | UK | +0.1% | Growth pulse, GBP/DeFi coinbase | |
| 15 Oct, 10:00 | EU HICP Final | EU | 4.1% YoY | ECB direction, EUR/USD flows coinbase | |
| 16 Oct, 19:00 | FOMC Minutes | US | — | Fed tone, real yield/dollar risk coinbasecoinex | |
| 21 Oct, 21:00 | BTC ETF Deadline | US | — | Institutional access, volatility coinbasecoinex | |
| 25 Oct, 09:00 | China PMI | China | 49.8 | Growth/liquidity impulse coinbasecoinex | |
| 31 Oct, 12:00 | ECB Meeting | EU | Hold | Balance sheet guidance, liquidity coinbase | |
| 01 Nov, 00:00 | UK Stablecoin Regime | UK | — | DeFi/GBP-backed tokens coinbase |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Primary data sources prioritized: macro levels from TradingView, official dashboards, and major newswires as of Oct 4, 2025 tradingviewcryptopotatocoinbasecoinex.
- Crypto/DeFi data: CoinBase Institutional, CoinEx Academy, CryptoPotato, and public on-chain dashboards tradingviewcryptopotatocoinbasecoinex.
- Discrepancies: Where sources diverged (e.g., BTC/ETH price closes), priority was given to institutional and exchange-backed feeds tradingviewcoinbase.
- Lagging/structural data (e.g., China TSF): latest available, flagged if >1 month old coinbasecoinex.