Crypto Macro Brief | As of 02 Oct 2025

Executive Summary

The past week saw renewed momentum in Bitcoin and digital assets, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and a US government shutdown that has heightened concerns about traditional fiscal stabilityinvestinghaven. Risk assets broadly benefited from a pullback in real yields and the perception that rate hikes are on hold, but persistent inflation and shifting global growth signals continue to temper optimism. Over the last three months, macro headwinds—sticky core inflation, uneven global growth, and energy shocks—have built, yet liquidity conditions have improved modestly as central banks slow quantitative tightening and fiscal authorities inject cash. Key risks remain: US fiscal stress, renewed dollar strength, and regulatory overhangs, but near-term catalysts could drive further volatility across crypto majors, stablecoins, and DeFi. The coming month will be defined by US CPI, Fed and ECB meetings, and the market's ability to navigate rising policy uncertainty.

TL;DR

• Bitcoin jumped ~3% last week, nearing $117K, as the US government shutdown drove flows into non-fiat assets and the dollar weakenedinvestinghaven.
• US dollar index (DXY) fell ~1% WoW, a typical tailwind for crypto risk appetiteinvestinghaven.
• US government shutdown started (29 Sep), raising concern over fiscal stability and risk-averse capital flowsinvestinghaven.
• Real yields retreated from cycle highs; markets now price no further Fed hikes in 2025 (CME FedWatch 01 Oct).
• Institutional crypto rails are expanding, but speculative excess is still limited vs past cyclesbeincrypto.
• Biggest tailwinds: weaker USD, improved liquidity from delayed QT, and ongoing ETF inflowsinvestinghavenbeincrypto.
• Biggest headwinds: sticky core inflation, US fiscal risk, and regulatory uncertainty.
• Upcoming catalysts: US CPI (10 Oct, 13:30 London), Fed FOMC (29 Oct), ECB meeting (24 Oct).

What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot; last week, 1m, 3m)

Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)

Liquidity & Funding Dashboard

Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)

Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix

Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)

Scenario 1: Risk-On Rally (30%)

• Triggers: US CPI below 3.6%, Fed signals dovish hold, DXY <104, equities and crypto break out.
• Signposts: BTC >$117K, S&P 500 >4,800, falling real yields.
• Impact: BTC, ETH, majors break new 2025 highs; DeFi TVL rises >10%.
• Analog: March–May 2024 post-Fed pivot rally.
• Sources: investinghavenbeincrypto

Scenario 2: Base Case (50%)

• Triggers: Macro data mixed, CPI sticky but no new shocks, policy on hold, DXY rangebound.
• Signposts: BTC consolidates $110–117K, stablecoin flows steady, equities grind higher.
• Impact: Majors rangebound, DeFi TVL stable, rotation into selective altcoins.
• Analog: Q1 2023 crypto consolidation phase.
• Sources: investinghavenbeincrypto

Scenario 3: Risk-Off Correction (20%)

• Triggers: US CPI >4%, Fed resumes hawkish rhetoric, US shutdown drags, DXY rebounds >107.
• Signposts: BTC < $108K, rising HY spreads, equity drawdown >5%.
• Impact: Broad crypto correction, DeFi TVL falls, stablecoin dominance rises.
• Analog: Q3 2022 inflation scare and crypto drawdown.
• Sources: investinghavenbeincrypto

Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)

Appendix: Methods & Source Quality

• Data is drawn primarily from official sources: BLS, Fed H.4.1, Eurostat, ECB, ONS, PBoC, Tether/USDC/DAI dashboards, and major newswires. Where data was paywalled, alternative public dashboards or official press releases were used.
• Discrepancies: Where asset prices or macro prints differ by source, official/statistical office data is preferred and latest available used (all data <3 months old unless structural).
• Crypto prices sourced from major public dashboards and corroborated by multiple outlets (InvestingHaven, TradingView, CoinDesk); macro levels cross-checked vs primary sources.