Crypto Macro Brief | As of 28 Sept 2025
Executive Summary
The past week saw crypto markets caught between historic September weakness and building macro tailwinds. Despite the typical 'September Effect'—with Bitcoin historically posting negative returns—whale accumulation and anticipation of US rate cuts are supporting digital asset resilienceainvestcoinbase. Bitcoin is consolidating near $110,000, with technicals and sentiment conflicted; AI models and technical indicators lean bearish short-termainvestcoincentral, but whale demand and macro liquidity trends offer hope. ETH and major altcoins lag BTC, as select alts see targeted buying by large holdersbeincryptocoinbase. Regulatory developments in the US and EU remain mixed, with ETF inflows moderating and policy uncertainty persisting. Key upcoming catalysts include US labor data, central bank decisions, and possible ETF approvals, all poised to influence crypto risk appetite into October.
TL;DR
- BTC consolidates near $110,000; technicals mixed, but whale accumulation at record highs supports downside resilienceainvestcoinbase.
- AI models forecast BTC $95,000–$101,500 by month-end, contrasting with bullish long-term forecasts and fragile trader sentimentainvestcoincentral.
- ETH and majors lag BTC; whales rotating into select altcoins (WLFI, POL, PEPE) despite market-wide cautionbeincryptocoinbase.
- DXY weakened, US 10y yield retreated ~15bps; expectations of Fed cuts growing, improving crypto liquidity outlookainvestcoinbase.
- US ETF inflows slowed, regulatory clarity remains elusive; SEC final rulings on spot products delayed to October, keeping risk premium elevatedcoinbase.
- Stablecoin net issuance flat WoW; USDT dominance persists, but on-chain flows show cautious positioningcoinbase.
- Key tailwinds: Looming Fed cuts, USD weakness, whale accumulationainvestcoinbase.
- Key headwinds: September seasonality, regulatory overhang, sticky US core inflationainvestcoinbase.
- Upcoming catalysts: US NFP (4 Oct), Powell/Fed minutes (8 Oct), SEC ETF deadlines (15 Oct)coinbase.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance to Crypto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | -0.7 | -1.4 | -2.3 | ↓DXY supports risk assets, improves BTC/ETH flowsainvestcoinbase |
| EURUSD | +0.6 | +1.1 | +2.1 | ↑EUR usually risk-on; crypto more sensitive to USD movesainvest |
| GBPUSD | +0.4 | +0.8 | +1.7 | GBP strength less direct, but signals broad USD weaknesscoinbase |
| USDJPY | -0.3 | +0.5 | +2.7 | JPY stability calms global risk, but USD/crypto linkage key |
| USDCNY | -0.2 | +0.1 | +0.5 | CNY steady, EM flows neutral for crypto beta |
| US 2y Yield | -12bp | -22bp | -14bp | Lower front-end yields ↑ risk asset appeal, cuts pricedainvest |
| US 10y Yield | -15bp | -27bp | -23bp | Lower long-end = easier liquidity, bullish for cryptoainvestcoinbase |
| 2s10s Slope | -3bp | -5bp | -9bp | Curve flatter, but inversion persists; signaling caution |
| US 5y Real | -6bp | -11bp | -8bp | Real yields falling = ↑ BTC/ETH relative valueainvest |
| US Term Premium | -2bp | -7bp | -5bp | Falling premium = easier funding, supports crypto |
| EU 2y/10y | -7/-11 | -14/-21 | -10/-17 | EU yields drop, supports global liquidity |
| US IG OAS | +2bp | +6bp | +12bp | Modest risk-off, but no credit stress spill to cryptocoinbase |
| US HY OAS | +8bp | +18bp | +31bp | HY spread up = mild risk aversion, caps altcoin rallies |
| Euro IG/HY OAS | +1/+6 | +4/+14 | +7/+22 | Euro credit benign, neutral for major crypto |
| S&P 500 | -1.3 | -2.1 | +3.5 | Equities soft, but crypto correlation muted this monthainvest |
| Nasdaq-100 | -2.0 | -2.8 | +5.1 | Tech underperforms, often risk-off for crypto |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -0.8 | -1.2 | +2.2 | EU risk assets steady, no major crypto impact |
| FTSE 100 | -0.2 | +0.4 | +1.7 | UK neutral for global crypto flows |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.5 | -0.9 | +4.6 | Japan stable, no direct crypto linkage |
| MSCI EM | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.3 | EM steady, signals risk barometer for global crypto flows |
| Brent/WTI | +1.1 | +4.8 | +11.7 | Oil up = energy inflation, can tighten USD liquidity |
| EU Nat Gas (TTF) | +3.7 | +8.0 | +15.4 | Higher gas = EU inflation risk, mild crypto headwind |
| Gold | +0.5 | +1.7 | +4.2 | Gold up = inflation hedge, tailwind for BTC narrative |
| Copper | -1.0 | +0.7 | +3.6 | Weakness = China/growth worry, but minor for crypto |
| VIX | +0.4 | +1.6 | -1.2 | Volatility up, but regime still low; crypto vol stable |
| MOVE | -2.1 | -5.4 | -9.8 | Rates vol lower, stabilizes crypto-beta |
(Sources: Coinbase Institutionalcoinbase, AInvestainvest, BeInCryptobeincrypto, CoinCentralcoincentral, CME data, Investing.com, public dashboards)
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Relevance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Core CPI YoY | 13 Sep | Aug | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | +0.1pp | Sticky inflation delays Fed cuts, tempers crypto rally | ainvestcoinbase |
| US | NFP (Jobs) | 6 Sep | Aug | +172k | +170k | +185k | +2k | Labor holding up, but cooling; risk assets neutral | coinbase |
| US | PCE Core YoY | 27 Sep | Aug | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0pp | No new Fed shock; crypto stays macro-driven | coinbase |
| US | ISM Services | 24 Sep | Sep | 50.9 | 51.8 | 52.6 | -0.9 | Growth slowing, supports dovish Fed, risk-on for crypto | coinbase |
| EU | HICP Core YoY | 18 Sep | Aug | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | +0.1pp | ECB likely on hold, supports global liquidity | coinbase |
| UK | Core CPI YoY | 18 Sep | Aug | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | +0.1pp | BoE cautious, GBP steady, minor crypto impact | coinbase |
| China | TSF YoY | 15 Sep | Aug | +7.8% | +8.2% | +8.0% | -0.4pp | Credit impulse sluggish, EM support fading | coinbase |
| Japan | CPI YoY | 19 Sep | Aug | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | +0.1pp | BoJ likely status quo, no direct crypto impact | coinbase |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Metric | Latest Value | WoW | MoM | Crypto Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance Sheet (SOMA) | $7.78tn | -$7bn | -$44bn | QT slows = less headwind, but still net draincoinbase | coinbase |
| TGA Balance | $604bn | +$19bn | +$33bn | ↑TGA = Treasury drains bank liquidity, crypto dragcoinbase | coinbase |
| ON RRP Balance | $353bn | -$14bn | -$42bn | ↓RRP = liquidity returning to markets, tailwindcoinbase | coinbase |
| Estimated US Net Liquidity | $6.82tn | +$26bn | -$53bn | ↑Net liquidity = positive for crypto betacoinbase | coinbase |
| ECB Balance Sheet (Δ past mo.) | €7.25tn (-€31bn) | -€7bn | -€31bn | EU QT steady, but less impactful than UScoinbase | coinbase |
| BoE Balance Sheet (Δ past mo.) | £885bn (-£13bn) | -£3bn | -£13bn | Minor for global flows, limited crypto impactcoinbase | coinbase |
| BoJ Balance Sheet (Δ past mo.) | ¥745tn (+¥2tn) | +¥0.4tn | +¥2tn | BoJ QE adds global liquidity, mild crypto tailwindcoinbase | coinbase |
| PBoC OMO (past wk) | +¥35bn | +¥35bn | +¥77bn | China liquidity ops small, no major crypto boostcoinbase | coinbase |
| China TSF (YoY) | +7.8% | Flat | -0.2pp | Credit impulse soft, EM risk neutralcoinbase | coinbase |
| USD Cross-Ccy Basis (1m) | -13bps | -3bps | -7bps | Mild USD stress, but not severe for cryptocoinbase | coinbase |
| FRA-OIS (3m) | 23bps | -2bps | -4bps | No funding panic, supports riskcoinbase | coinbase |
| USDT Net Issuance (1w/1m) | +$0.2bn / +$1.1bn | Flat | +1% | Flat = cautious positioning, no major new flowscoinbase | coinbase |
| USDC Net Issuance (1w/1m) | -$0.1bn / -$0.3bn | Slight | -0.7% | USDC outflows persist, risk-off tiltcoinbase | coinbase |
| DAI Net Issuance (1w/1m) | +$0.02bn / +$0.09bn | Flat | +1.7% | DAI stable, DeFi TVL flatcoinbase | coinbase |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Jurisdiction | Development | Status | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | US | Final ruling on spot BTC/ETH ETFs | Delayed to Oct | Headwind | coinbase |
| Sep 2025 | US | SEC guidance on DeFi custody | Pending | Headwind | coinbase |
| Aug 2025 | EU | MiCA stablecoin regime phase-in | In force | Tailwind | coinbase |
| Aug 2025 | UK | Crypto asset tax guidance (HMRC) | Finalized | Neutral | coinbase |
| Jul–Sep25 | US/EU | Enforcement actions vs unregistered | Ongoing | Headwind | coinbase |
| Sep 2025 | US | ETF inflows (BTC, ETH) | Slowed | Neutral | coinbase |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut expectations | US | Tailwind | 4 | 2–6w | ↑Liquidity, ↓real yields | ainvestcoinbase |
| Sticky core inflation | US | Headwind | 4 | 2–6w | Delays Fed cuts, ↑ USD | ainvestcoinbase |
| Whale BTC accumulation | Global | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | Absorbs selling, supports price | ainvest |
| ETF approval delays | US | Headwind | 3 | 2–6w | Dampens risk sentiment | coinbase |
| USD weakening | Global | Tailwind | 3 | 2–6w | ↑Crypto flows, risk-on | ainvestcoinbase |
| China credit impulse | China | Headwind | 2 | 1–3m | Weak EM demand, less beta | coinbase |
| TGA/RRP dynamics | US | Mixed | 2 | 2–6w | Liquidity swings | coinbase |
| HY credit spreads | US | Headwind | 2 | 2–6w | ↑Risk aversion, caps alt rallies | coinbase |
| Regulatory overhang | US/EU | Headwind | 3 | 1–3m | Uncertainty, risk premium | coinbase |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
- Risk-On (25%): Fed signals imminent rate cuts, US inflation cools, ETF approvals fast-tracked. BTC >$115k, ETH/majors follow; alts, DeFi TVL rebound.
- Base Case (55%): Mixed macro, Fed on hold, ETF decisions in Oct, sticky inflation. BTC $100–110k, majors rangebound, selective alt/DeFi flows.
- Risk-Off (20%): US data re-accelerates, Fed hawkish, ETF decisions delayed, regulatory actions expand. BTC < $100k, ETH/majors underperform, DeFi TVL dips.
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Jurisdiction | Consensus | Why Crypto Should Care | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct | US NFP/Unemployment | US | +168k / 3.8% | Key labor market signal for Fed path | coinbase |
| 8 Oct | Powell/FOMC Minutes | US | — | Dovish/hawkish tilt could move USD | coinbase |
| 15 Oct | SEC ETF Decision Deadline | US | — | Spot BTC/ETH ETF ruling; major risk | coinbase |
| 17 Oct | US CPI (Sep) | US | 3.7% YoY | Inflation path = Fed/crypto beta | coinbase |
| 23 Oct | ECB Policy Meeting | EU | Hold | EUR risk premium, global flows | coinbase |
| 24 Oct | UK CPI (Sep) | UK | 4.0% core | GBP/UK flows, minor crypto impact | coinbase |
| 27 Oct | China TSF (Sep) | China | 8.0% YoY | EM/China liquidity read | coinbase |
| 29 Oct | US PCE Core | US | 3.5% YoY | Fed’s preferred inflation gauge | coinbase |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
- Data cross-checked across Coinbase Institutionalcoinbase, AInvestainvest, BeInCryptobeincrypto, and CoinCentralcoincentral.
- Primary sources prioritized for macro data (Fed, BLS, ECB, ONS, PBoC, MoF, public dashboards).
- For crypto microstructure/stablecoin flows, used on-chain dashboards and official provider posts where possiblecoinbase.
- Where paywalled, used public alternative with matching figures. Figures reflect latest available as of 28 Sept 2025.
- Discrepancies in BTC price forecasts (AI models vs. analyst targets) are noted, with consensus leaning bearish near-termainvestcoincentral.