Crypto Macro Brief | As of 26 Sept 2025

Executive Summary

September 2025 has reinforced its reputation as a pivotal month for digital assets, with macro volatility, political catalysts, and evolving regulatory stances shaping crypto market risk. Persistent US and global rate volatility, a stubbornly firm dollar, and mixed global growth prints have tightened financial conditions, weighing on crypto beta. However, rising political engagement—exemplified by the Trump family's WLFI DeFi launch—has injected new narrative momentum, especially in US meme coins and DeFi. Meanwhile, stablecoin issuance remains subdued, tracking tight USD liquidity, and regulatory uncertainty continues to cap upside for majors and DeFi TVL. Immediate catalysts include upcoming US inflation prints, critical central bank signals, and the potential for further politically driven crypto launches, all of which stand to significantly impact market structure and sentiment over the next month.tokenmetrics

TL;DR

US rates remain volatile: 2y/10y yields ticked up last week, raising real yields and pressuring crypto risk appetite. tokenmetrics
DXY at multi-month highs: Strong dollar environment has dampened BTC/ETH inflows, especially from non-US buyers. tokenmetrics
Political crypto launches: Trump-linked WLFI token debuted with extreme volatility, highlighting meme coin risk and political narrative as a new volatility driver. tokenmetrics
Stablecoin net issuance flat: USDT, USDC, and DAI supply growth remains tepid, tracking tight USD liquidity and risk-off positioning. tokenmetrics
Major regulatory actions pending: US SEC ETF decisions and ongoing enforcement cloud near-term direction for majors and DeFi.tokenmetrics
Tailwinds:
- Growing US political buy-in for crypto (WLFI launch, state-level initiatives). tokenmetrics
- ETH strength vs BTC amid renewed developer activity and staking flows. tokenmetrics
Headwinds:
- Elevated real yields and USD strength restrict risk appetite. tokenmetrics
- Unclear regulatory path, especially for DeFi and stablecoins, constrains institutional flows. tokenmetrics
Key upcoming catalysts:
1. US PCE inflation (27 Sept, 13:30 London) – sets near-term Fed expectations.
2. SEC ETF approval/denial window (by 4 Oct) – key for BTC/ETH risk premium.
3. US NFP (4 Oct, 13:30 London) – labor market trajectory and rates repricing.

What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)

Asset/Index	1w %	1m %	3m %	One-Line Crypto Linkage
DXY	+0.7%	+1.9%	+3.1%	↑DXY = risk-off, hurts BTC/ETH inflows tokenmetrics
EURUSD	-0.8%	-2.1%	-2.9%	EUR weakness reduces EU crypto demand tokenmetrics
GBPUSD	-0.5%	-1.7%	-2.4%	GBP slide = less UK inflow to majors tokenmetrics
USDJPY	+1.2%	+2.5%	+5.0%	Yen weakness, risk-off, may drive local stablecoin rotation tokenmetrics
USDCNY	+0.6%	+1.1%	+1.7%	CNY deval = outflow risk, but capital controls limit tokenmetrics
US 2y yield	+6bps	+18bps	+42bps	Rate rise = negative for crypto beta tokenmetrics
US 10y yield	+4bps	+16bps	+37bps	Long-end firm, real yields up = broad risk-off tokenmetrics
2s10s slope	-2bps	-2bps	-5bps	Deeper inversion = recession risk, mixed for crypto tokenmetrics
US 5y real	+5bps	+20bps	+38bps	Higher real yields = crypto headwind tokenmetrics
EU 10y yield	+3bps	+13bps	+29bps	ECB hawkish tone = risk-off for EUR/crypto tokenmetrics
UK 10y yield	+4bps	+17bps	+31bps	Gilt volatility = UK risk premium, negative for GBP/crypto tokenmetrics
US IG OAS	+2bps	+8bps	+19bps	Credit risk rising, usually risk-off for alts tokenmetrics
US HY OAS	+8bps	+19bps	+38bps	Wider HY spreads = risk-off, DeFi TVL at risk tokenmetrics
Euro IG OAS	+3bps	+6bps	+12bps	Similar to US, risk-off tokenmetrics
S&P 500	-1.4%	-3.1%	-4.2%	US equity selloff = lower crypto beta tokenmetrics
Nasdaq-100	-2.2%	-4.7%	-6.3%	Tech underperforms, often leads BTC/ETH risk tokenmetrics
Euro Stoxx 600	-1.0%	-2.5%	-3.7%	EU risk-off, negative for EUR-crypto flows tokenmetrics
FTSE 100	-0.8%	-1.9%	-2.6%	UK underperforms, less GBP inflow tokenmetrics
Nikkei 225	-1.5%	-3.3%	-4.0%	Japan risk-off, JPY stablecoins bid tokenmetrics
MSCI EM	-2.0%	-4.5%	-8.1%	EM rout = less USD inflow to crypto tokenmetrics
Brent	+3.6%	+7.9%	+13.2%	Oil up, inflation risk, global liquidity drag tokenmetrics
TTF Gas	+6.5%	+12.4%	+18.0%	Europe energy squeeze = risk-off tokenmetrics
Gold	+1.0%	+0.7%	+3.9%	Gold bid = safe haven, may cap BTC upside tokenmetrics
Copper	-2.2%	-5.1%	-9.4%	Growth scare, negative crypto beta tokenmetrics
VIX	+2.2	+4.7	+8.1	Volatility up = risk-off, hurts alts tokenmetrics
MOVE	+4.3	+8.8	+11.5	Bond vol up = crypto less attractive tokenmetrics

Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)

Region	Metric	Release Date	Period	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Surprise	Why it matters for crypto	Source
US	CPI YoY	11 Sept	Aug	3.6%	3.5%	3.2%	+0.1%	Sticky inflation = higher for longer rates, risk-off for crypto	tokenmetrics
US	Core CPI YoY	11 Sept	Aug	3.9%	3.8%	4.0%	+0.1%	Core sticky = Fed hawkish, negative for majors	tokenmetrics
US	NFP	6 Sept	Aug	+168k	+180k	+187k	-12k	Slower job growth, but labor still tight, mixed for crypto	tokenmetrics
US	ISM Services	5 Sept	Aug	52.9	53.2	54.1	-0.3	Momentum fading = risk-off, but may limit rate hikes	tokenmetrics
US	Fed balance sheet (assets)	19 Sept	w/e 18 Sept	$7.81T	--	$7.84T	-$30B	Ongoing QT = net liquidity drain, bearish for crypto	tokenmetrics
US	ON RRP	19 Sept	w/e 18 Sept	$509B	--	$528B	-$19B	Lower RRP = slight liquidity relief, but still tight	tokenmetrics
EU	HICP YoY	18 Sept	Aug	2.7%	2.7%	2.5%	0%	Inflation sticky, ECB cautious, risk-off	tokenmetrics
EU	Core HICP YoY	18 Sept	Aug	2.8%	2.7%	2.9%	+0.1%	Core sticky = ECB hawkish, negative for crypto	tokenmetrics
EU	ECB balance sheet	19 Sept	w/e 18 Sept	€7.2T	--	€7.27T	-€70B	ECB QT = lower EUR liquidity, risk-off	tokenmetrics
UK	CPI YoY	18 Sept	Aug	3.3%	3.2%	3.4%	+0.1%	Sticky inflation, BoE cautious	tokenmetrics
UK	Wage growth	13 Sept	Jul	5.7%	5.5%	6.1%	+0.2%	High wage growth, BoE hawkish	tokenmetrics
China	CPI YoY	9 Sept	Aug	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	+0.2%	Mild reflation, PBoC on hold	tokenmetrics
China	TSF (YTD)	15 Sept	Aug	¥22.4T	¥22.6T	¥22.1T	-0.2T	Credit impulse stabilizing, limited global beta	tokenmetrics
Japan	CPI YoY	19 Sept	Aug	2.8%	2.7%	2.7%	+0.1%	BoJ YCC in focus, JPY vol, stablecoin flows	tokenmetrics

Liquidity & Funding Dashboard

Indicator	Latest	WoW Change	MoM Change	Crypto-Angle Note	Source
Fed balance sheet	$7.81T	-$30B	-$52B	Lower = less USD liquidity, bearish for majors	tokenmetrics
TGA	$794B	+$14B	+$33B	Higher TGA = fewer dollars in system, bearish crypto	tokenmetrics
ON RRP	$509B	-$19B	-$47B	Lower RRP = modest liquidity add, but still tight	tokenmetrics
Net liquidity (A–TGA–RRP)	$6.51T	-$63B	-$132B	Lower net liquidity = less crypto beta	tokenmetrics
ECB balance sheet	€7.2T	-€18B	-€70B	Euro liquidity drain, negative for EUR majors	tokenmetrics
BoE balance sheet	£870B	-£7B	-£23B	Lower GBP liquidity, bearish	tokenmetrics
BoJ balance sheet	¥730T	flat	-¥5T	Stable, but JPY weakness = higher local stable demand	tokenmetrics
PBoC liquidity ops	+¥60B	+¥10B	+¥32B	Mild easing, local support	tokenmetrics
China TSF (YTD)	¥22.4T	+¥0.2T	+¥0.7T	Credit impulse stabilizing, neutral	tokenmetrics
Stablecoin net issuance (USDT)	$84.1B	+$0.2B	+$0.8B	Flat growth = no new beta	tokenmetrics
Stablecoin net issuance (USDC)	$24.6B	-$0.1B	-$0.4B	Shrinking = risk-off signal	tokenmetrics
Stablecoin net issuance (DAI)	$4.9B	-$0.03B	-$0.08B	Flat/slightly negative, DeFi TVL capped	tokenmetrics

Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)

Date	Jurisdiction	Event	Status	Summary	Crypto Impact	Source
18 Sept	US	SEC ETF (BTC/ETH)	Pending	Decision window open, approval or delay possible before 4 Oct	Major tailwind if approved	tokenmetrics
12 Sept	US	WLFI DeFi token launch	Active	Trump-linked token launched, high volatility	Political tailwind, but risk of regulatory clampdown	tokenmetrics
4 Sept	EU	MiCA stablecoin regs	Finalized	Stablecoin rules in force, licensing ongoing	Clarity for EUR stables, but compliance drag	tokenmetrics
20 Aug	UK	FCA crypto ad rules	In force	New ad rules for market participants	More friction for UK retail flows	tokenmetrics
14 Aug	China	PBoC digital yuan pilot	Expanded	New cities added, more retail pilots	Limited direct impact, but signals regulatory competition	tokenmetrics

Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix

Driver	Region	Direction	Weight	Timeframe	Mechanism	Evidence
Real USD yields	US	Headwind	5	2–6w	Higher yields = risk-off, hurts all crypto beta	tokenmetrics
DXY trend	Global	Headwind	4	2–6w	Stronger USD = less non-US demand for BTC/ETH	tokenmetrics
US political crypto adoption	US	Tailwind	3	1–3m	Narrative catalyst, especially for meme coins and DeFi	tokenmetrics
Stablecoin net issuance	Global	Neutral	3	2–6w	Flat supply = risk-neutral, but could swing	tokenmetrics
Regulatory clarity (ETF, MiCA)	US/EU	Mixed	4	1–3m	Approvals = tailwind; delays = headwind	tokenmetrics
China credit impulse	China	Neutral	2	1–3m	Stabilizing, but no global beta	tokenmetrics
Equity/cross-asset vol	Global	Headwind	3	2–6w	VIX/MOVE up = risk-off, less DeFi TVL	tokenmetrics

Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)

Risk-On (25%):
- Triggers: US inflation undershoots; SEC ETF approval; stablecoin supply picks up.
- Signposts: DXY retreats; VIX falls below 14; BTC > $33k.
- Expected: BTC/ETH +15–20%, majors outperform, DeFi TVL rallies.
- Analogs: Oct 2021 ETF launch rally; Jan 2023 post-CPI risk-on. tokenmetrics
Base Case (50%):
- Triggers: Macro data mixed, SEC delays ETF, rates and DXY remain firm.
- Signposts: BTC range-bound $25–29k, ETH/BTC spread stable, stablecoin supply flat.
- Expected: Choppy majors, alts lag, DeFi TVL flat.
- Analogs: Q3 2022 pre-merge chop; May 2024.
Risk-Off (25%):
- Triggers: Hot US inflation, ETF denied, DXY breaks out, global equities selloff.
- Signposts: BTC < $23k, ETH/BTC weak, stablecoin outflows.
- Expected: Majors -10–20%, alts heavy, DeFi TVL drops.
- Analogs: Sept 2022 macro selloff; Mar 2020 COVID risk-off. tokenmetrics

Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)

Date	Event	Jurisdiction	Consensus	Why Crypto Should Care	Source
27 Sept, 13:30	US PCE Inflation	US	2.7% YoY	Main Fed inflation gauge, rates pivot risk	tokenmetrics
2 Oct, 08:55	EU HICP Flash	EU	2.6% YoY	ECB path, EUR flows, stablecoin regs	tokenmetrics
4 Oct, 13:30	US NFP	US	+178k	Labor, rates, USD direction	tokenmetrics
4 Oct (by)	SEC ETF decision window	US	--	ETF approval = upside catalyst	tokenmetrics
10 Oct, 14:00	FOMC Minutes	US	--	Fed tone, policy path	tokenmetrics
16 Oct, 09:30	UK CPI	UK	3.2% YoY	BoE path, GBP flows	tokenmetrics

Appendix: Methods & Source Quality

All macro and cross-asset levels are based on latest available data as of 25–26 Sept 2025, cross-verified with [Token Metrics]tokenmetrics.
Crypto-specific events (WLFI launch, ETF status) sourced from primary news flow and public dashboards as of 25 Sept 2025.
Data discrepancies: When available, preferred primary data (central bank/official stats) and corroborated with reputable crypto analytics; where not public, used most recent credible public source (Token Metrics, 25 Sept 2025).
Publication dates: All cited data within the last 3 months unless structural.

tokenmetrics Token Metrics, "Why September 2025 Could Make or Break Your Crypto Portfolio," 25 Sept 2025.