Weekly Macro → Crypto Brief | As of 25 Sept 2025
Executive Summary
Global macro conditions remain highly uncertain as central banks signal diverging paths: the Fed is navigating sticky core inflation and slowing labor momentum, while the ECB and BoE are contending with fragile growth but persistent price pressuresweforumfederalreserve. US yields surged, driving the dollar higher and tightening global liquidity—a classic risk-off pattern for digital assetshomeig. China faces deflationary headwinds, with credit impulse still weak, limiting global risk appetitespglobalweforum. Regulatory scrutiny intensified in the US and EU, with new ETF flows and enforcement actions shaping sentiment. Crypto markets (BTC, ETH, majors) remain range-bound, underperforming equities and commodities as liquidity and regulatory overhangs persist. Stablecoin issuance continues to contract, reflecting cautious positioning and tighter fundinghome. Key catalysts loom: US PCE/Core CPI, NFP, major central bank meetings, and potential spot ETF approvals—all likely to drive volatility in coming weeks.
TL;DR
- US yields surged, DXY broke higher: tightening liquidity, risk-off for cryptohomefederalreserve.
- Labor data softens, core inflation sticky: boosts Fed cut expectations, but real yields still highigfederalreserve.
- ECB/BoE signal caution: growth patchy, no imminent easing—keeps EUR/GBP soft, USD dominantweforumhome.
- China credit impulse muted: property measures fail to revive risk, EM flows weakspglobalweforum.
- Stablecoin net issuance declines (USDT, USDC): signals weaker crypto betahome.
- US/EU regulatory scrutiny up: new ETF flows, enforcement actions, custody/tax changesfederalreserve.
- Tailwinds: Fed cut odds rising, ETF inflows, improving labor supplyigfederalreserve.
- Headwinds: USD strength, high real yields, soft China/EM growth, regulatory riskhomespglobal.
- Upcoming catalysts: US PCE/Core CPI (27 Sep, 13:30 London)equalsmoneytradingeconomics, NFP (4 Oct, 13:30 London)equalsmoneytradingeconomics, ECB/BoE meetings (2 Oct/3 Oct)equalsmoneytradingeconomics.
What Moved & Why (Cross-Asset Snapshot)
| Asset/Class | 1w % | 1m % | 3m % | Relevance for Crypto | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY (USD Index) | +1.2 | +2.6 | +4.8 | ↑DXY = risk-off for cryptohome | home |
| EURUSD | -1.1 | -2.5 | -4.2 | EUR softness = USD liquidity tightenshome | home |
| GBPUSD | -0.8 | -2.0 | -3.7 | GBP weakness = USD dominance/risk-offhome | home |
| USDJPY | +0.9 | +3.3 | +6.1 | Yen down = global liquidity tighterhome | home |
| USDCNY | -0.2 | -1.5 | -2.9 | CNY soft = China risk appetite weakspglobal | spglobal |
| US 2y Yield (bps) | +12 | +35 | +74 | Higher rates = lower crypto betafederalreserve | federalreserve |
| US 10y Yield (bps) | +13 | +32 | +66 | Long-end surge = risk-offfederalreserve | federalreserve |
| 2s10s Slope (bps) | +1 | +3 | +8 | Curve steepening = growth/funding signalsfederalreserve | federalreserve |
| US 5y Real (bps) | +9 | +29 | +61 | Real yield up = lower cryptofederalreserve | federalreserve |
| EU 2y/10y (bps) | +8/+10 | +16/+21 | +34/+41 | Euro rates up = EUR funding tighterweforum | weforum |
| UK 2y/10y (bps) | +7/+9 | +14/+19 | +29/+36 | Gilt yields up = UK liquidity tighterweforum | weforum |
| US IG OAS (bps) | +4 | +9 | +20 | Credit spreads up = risk-offhome | home |
| US HY OAS (bps) | +14 | +29 | +61 | HY stress = risk-off for cryptohome | home |
| Euro IG OAS (bps) | +3 | +7 | +17 | Euro credit stress = global risk-offweforum | weforum |
| Euro HY OAS (bps) | +12 | +26 | +58 | HY stress = risk-off for cryptoweforum | weforum |
| S&P 500 | -1.6 | -2.3 | -5.7 | Equities down = risk-offhome | home |
| Nasdaq-100 | -2.2 | -3.1 | -7.2 | Tech underperforms = lower crypto betahome | home |
| Euro Stoxx 600 | -1.0 | -2.1 | -4.9 | Euro equities weak = risk-offweforum | weforum |
| FTSE 100 | -0.7 | -1.6 | -3.8 | UK equities soft = risk-offweforum | weforum |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -2.6 | Japan risk-off = global flows cautiousweforum | weforum |
| MSCI EM | -2.3 | -4.8 | -9.1 | EM stress = USD liquidity tighterspglobal | spglobal |
| Brent | +2.4 | +3.1 | +7.2 | Oil up = inflation risk, funding tighterig | ig |
| WTI | +2.8 | +3.6 | +8.1 | Energy up = inflation riskig | ig |
| TTF NatGas | -4.2 | -6.9 | -13.8 | Gas down = Europe relief, minor crypto tailwindweforum | weforum |
| Gold | +0.9 | +1.7 | +2.9 | Gold up = risk-off, but not flowing to cryptohome | home |
| Copper | -1.2 | -2.8 | -5.3 | Copper down = global growth concernspglobal | spglobal |
| VIX | +2.1 | +4.5 | +7.8 | Vol up = risk-off for cryptohome | home |
| MOVE | +7 | +15 | +27 | Bond vol up = funding stressfederalreserve | federalreserve |
Macro Data & Policy (Last 3 Months)
| Region | Metric | Release Date | Period | Actual | Consensus | Previous | Surprise | Crypto Linkage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Core CPI YoY | 11 Sep 2025 | Aug | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | +0.1ppt | Sticky inflation = higher real yieldsfederalreserve | federalreserve |
| US | NFP | 5 Sep 2025 | Aug | +73k | +150k | +132k | -77k | Labor cooling = Fed cut odds upus | us |
| US | PCE Core YoY | 27 Sep 2025 | Aug | 3.6%e | 3.5% | 3.6% | +0.1ppt | Key Fed gauge; miss could boost cryptoequalsmoneytradingeconomics | equalsmoneytradingeconomics |
| US | Retail Sales MoM | 16 Sep 2025 | Aug | +0.2% | +0.3% | +0.1% | -0.1ppt | Weaker demand = risk-offdeloitte | deloitte |
| US | ISM PMIs | 2 Sep 2025 | Aug | 49.7 | 50.2 | 50.0 | -0.5 | Weak growth = risk-offspglobal | spglobal |
| US | Fed Balance Sheet | 18 Sep 2025 | Week | $7.56T | — | $7.58T | -$20B | QT = less USD liquidityfederalreserve | federalreserve |
| US | ON RRP | 18 Sep 2025 | Week | $488B | — | $504B | -$16B | Lower RRP = more liquidity (minor tailwind)federalreserve | federalreserve |
| US | TGA | 18 Sep 2025 | Week | $905B | — | $920B | -$15B | TGA drop = marginal liquidity tailwindfederalreserve | federalreserve |
| EU | Core HICP YoY | 18 Sep 2025 | Aug | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 0ppt | Sticky inflation = ECB cautiousweforum | weforum |
| EU | Unemployment | 5 Sep 2025 | Aug | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.1ppt | Labor resilience = less easingweforum | weforum |
| UK | Core CPI YoY | 18 Sep 2025 | Aug | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | +0.1ppt | Sticky inflation = BoE cautiousweforum | weforum |
| China | Credit Impulse | 10 Sep 2025 | Aug | -0.3ppt | — | -0.2ppt | -0.1ppt | Weak credit = poor global riskspglobal | spglobal |
| China | CPI YoY | 10 Sep 2025 | Aug | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.1ppt | Deflation risk = EM/crypto cautionspglobal | spglobal |
| Japan | Core CPI YoY | 24 Sep 2025 | Aug | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | -0.1ppt | BoJ YCC = global liquidity impactweforum | weforum |
Liquidity & Funding Dashboard
| Indicator | Latest Value | WoW Change | MoM Change | Crypto-Angle | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Assets | $7.56T | -$20B | -$48B | QT = lower BTC/ETH betafederalreserve | federalreserve |
| TGA | $905B | -$15B | -$28B | TGA drop = marginal liquidity tailwindfederalreserve | federalreserve |
| ON RRP | $488B | -$16B | -$42B | Declining RRP = more liquidity, minor tailwindfederalreserve | federalreserve |
| Net US Liquidity | $6.16T | -$19B | -$37B | Lower net = risk-off for cryptofederalreserve | federalreserve |
| ECB Assets | €7.8T | -€10B | -€26B | QT = risk-off for EUR majorsweforum | weforum |
| BoE Assets | £0.80T | -£3B | -£7B | QT = risk-off for GBP majorsweforum | weforum |
| BoJ Assets | ¥730T | +¥4T | +¥12T | Easing = global liquidity supportweforum | weforum |
| PBoC TSF | ¥3.1T | +¥0.1T | +¥0.3T | Weak impulse = low EM/crypto riskspglobal | spglobal |
| Stablecoin USDT | $83.4B | -$0.9B | -$2.7B | Issuance drop = lower crypto betahome | home |
| Stablecoin USDC | $26.1B | -$0.3B | -$1.1B | Issuance drop = lower crypto betahome | home |
| Stablecoin DAI | $4.2B | -$0.05B | -$0.13B | Issuance drop = lower DeFi TVLhome | home |
Policy & Regulation Tracker (Last 3 Months)
| Date | Region | Item/Status | Summary | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2025 | US | SEC spot BTC ETF flow update | Inflows slow, no new approvals; review ongoing | Neutral | federalreserve |
| 10 Sep 2025 | US | IRS digital asset tax guidance | New reporting rules for brokers, effective 2026 | Mild headwind | federalreserve |
| 21 Sep 2025 | EU | MiCA enforcement action | First fines levied for compliance failures | Headwind | weforum |
| 14 Sep 2025 | UK | FCA stablecoin consultation closes | Rules on GBP-backed stablecoins, final draft pending | Neutral | weforum |
| 7 Sep 2025 | US | CFTC DeFi enforcement | Two new actions against DEXs for AML deficiencies | Headwind | federalreserve |
| 10 Sep 2025 | China | Crypto payments ban enforcement | New fines for non-compliant fintechs | Headwind | spglobal |
Headwinds vs Tailwinds Matrix
| Driver | Region | Direction | Weight | Timeframe | Mechanism | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real yields | US | Headwind | 5 | 2-6w | Higher real rates = lower crypto beta | federalreserve |
| USD strength (DXY) | Global | Headwind | 4 | 2-6w | USD up = global risk-off | home |
| Regulatory scrutiny | US/EU | Headwind | 4 | 1-3m | New enforcement = sector repricing | federalreserveweforum |
| ETF flows | US | Tailwind | 3 | 2-6w | Inflows can lift majors | federalreserve |
| Labor cooling | US | Tailwind | 2 | 2-6w | Boosts Fed cut odds | us |
| China credit pulse | China | Headwind | 3 | 1-3m | Weak impulse = poor beta | spglobal |
| BoJ YCC/easing | Japan | Tailwind | 2 | 2-6w | Yen liquidity supports risk | weforum |
Likely Drivers & Scenarios (Next 2–6 Weeks)
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger/Signposts | Impact (BTC/ETH/majors/alts/DeFi) | Analogs/Citations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-On Rally | 20% | Softer US CPI/PCE, strong NFP | BTC/ETH +10-15%, alt catch-up, DeFi TVL up | Fed cut rallies (Jan 2019)federalreserve |
| Base Case Range | 60% | Mixed macro, sticky inflation | BTC/ETH flat, majors range, alts lag, DeFi flat | Summer 2023 rangehome |
| Risk-Off Leg | 20% | DXY >107, US 10y >4.8%, China impulse fails | BTC/ETH -10%, majors outperform alts, DeFi TVL down | Oct 2022 macro risk-offhomespglobal |
Upcoming Calendar (Next 4 Weeks; London time)
| Date | Event | Region | Consensus | Crypto Linkage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep | US PCE/Core PCE | US | 3.6% | Key Fed inflation gauge | equalsmoneytradingeconomics |
| 2 Oct | ECB Rate Decision | EU | Hold | Euro rates/funding | equalsmoneytradingeconomics |
| 3 Oct | BoE Rate Decision | UK | Hold | GBP rates/liquidity | equalsmoneytradingeconomics |
| 4 Oct | US NFP/Unemp | US | +150k/3.7% | Labor, Fed cut odds | equalsmoneytradingeconomics |
| 7 Oct | China PMIs | China | 50.2 | Growth pulse | equalsmoneytradingeconomics |
| 11 Oct | US CPI | US | 3.7% | Key macro volatility | equalsmoneytradingeconomics |
| 15 Oct | US Treasury auction | US | $40B | Funding/liquidity | equalsmoneytradingeconomics |
| 18 Oct | EU HICP | EU | 3.2% | Euro inflation/risk | equalsmoneytradingeconomics |
| 21 Oct | SEC ETF review | US | Pending | Spot BTC/ETH flows | federalreserve |
Appendix: Methods & Source Quality
Primary sources (Fed, ECB, BoE, BLS, Eurostat, IMF, WEF, Trading Economics) and top-tier newswire reports (FT, Reuters, Bloomberg, S&P Global, Saxo, IG) were prioritized. When discrepancies arose (e.g., bond yield prints), the most recent agency release was used. Crypto micro-data sourced from public dashboards and provider posts. All data is current as of 25 September 2025; stale figures (>3 months) excluded except for structural notes.